Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis: Buyer Beware for Week 6? (2025)

May 3, 2025

Michael's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 6 (2025), and whether to buy into MLB hitters and pitchers such as Javier Baez and Colin Rea. Should you avoid these popular names?

Is it just us or is time flying? Reaching week six already means we have a mere 20 or 21 weeks of FAAB (and season) remaining. Just think about it: we are almost 20% done with the MLB season and the NBA playoffs still haven’t finished the first round. Maybe the Finals will be over by the time the World Series hits.

Another FAAB run means another installment of waiver wire skepticism. This week, people are taking note of an apparent return to relevance for a former fantasy stud at shortstop, an erstwhile innings eater who seems to be breaking out, and a reliever who just might have a shot at closing, given recent events. Rostership rates are from Yahoo Fantasy Baseball leagues.

Should you buy into these trendy names? Should you avoid them altogether? We break down each from what amounts to the troll’s chair. Somebody has to do it. To the names!

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Javier Baez - SS, 3B, OF, 7% rostered

On the surface, it sure looks like Javy Baez is BACK. Entering play Saturday he was slashing .300/.337/.467 after back to back to back games with home runs, giving him three homers and one steal in just 95 plate appearances (if you followed the math, those three in a row are his only dingers this season).

He’s provided even more real-life value to the Tigers, playing credible defense at short, third, and even center field.

A quick look beneath the surface casts doubt on the idea that Baez will continue to hit like this. Despite lowering the chase rate by about 5 percent, he’s still in the 13th percentile for swinging out of the zone. He is making more contact than he ever has (74.6%), but the tradeoff is his lowest barrel (4.8%) and second-lowest hard hit rates (33.3%), along with his highest career ground ball percentage (50.8%).

The projections aren’t buying a major change with Baez either. ATC has him hitting .227 with a .633 OPS rest of season; that’s an 80 wRC+. Detroit has Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows working back from injury. Both have better projections than Baez and Meadows is a superior center field defender.

If you’re in a pinch in a deep league, perhaps bid a small amount on Baez and hope to ride the wave of hotness. He did deal with injuries last season, so perhaps while healthy, he can continue to provide some value. Just be aware that both the skills and the opportunity may be fleeting.

Colin Rea - SP, 27% rostered

Rea is really interesting. He’s had a career of solid but mostly anonymous mediocrity, more useful as an innings eater for real teams than a coveted asset in fantasy. However, with a 1.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP so far, he’s pitching more like an ace through four starts and seven appearances (24.2 IP). Is it real?

To some extent, Rea has made tangible changes that may support a better season than expected based on his history. His velocity is up about one mile per hour to 94.2. Historically he was a sinker-cutter pitcher but now is leading with his four seamer and mixing in five other pitches; one can see how this varied mix may keep hitters off balance. Call it the “Seth Lugo lite” approach.

The problem is Rea is throwing over 52% four seamers and while his velocity is up, it does not have elite speed or shape. He has four pitches returning at least a 30% whiff rate, which is solid. On the other hand, the pitch models are not impressed.

That fastball he throws over 50%? Just an 85 Stuff+, over a standard deviation below average. FanGraphs’ Bot Stuff is even less impressed (on the 20-80 scale):

That’s a lot of blue! And it’s not the only warning sign. Rea has allowed just one homer so far after giving up 52 over the prior two seasons. Even with a new pitch mix, his fly ball rate is up at 42%. We can’t count on any pitcher maintaining his current 3.2% HR/FB rate (13.5% career). As the weather heats up we should expect Rea to allow a lot more damage.

Plenty of pitchers beat their peripherals. We like some of what Rea is doing. But even then, his true talent is likely closer to a high 3’s ERA, given his projections (4.57 ERA from ATC). He’s a useful SP6-7 for fantasy, not an ace, so bid accordingly.

Kevin Ginkel - RP, 7% rostered

Ginkel may be a popular add for those seeking saves given recent injuries to Arizona’s AJ Puk and now Justin Martinez. While we wouldn’t rule out that he may close a few games, Ginkel does appear to be second in line to Shelby Miller.

Ginkel returned this week from the injured list following shoulder inflammation he suffered in spring training. He was immediately used on back-to-back days, first in the seventh, then in the eighth inning.

In the second appearance, he was used against the top of the Mets lineup, but Miller closed the game. D’Backs manager Torey Lovullo has not named an interim closer since the Martinez injury, but the usage seems to favor Miller.

Ginkel’s other issue is that his velocity is down. His fastball is sitting at 94.3, down almost two miles per hour, while his slider, clocked at 84, was down three MPH. Like most pitchers, when Ginkel’s velocity is down he allows more hard contact and home runs:

It’s too small a sample to conclude Ginkel will absolutely be ineffective. At the same time, the evidence we do have suggests a fair amount of risk both in skills and role. We plan to bid only a very small amount on Ginkel as a backup to more robust bids on Miller.

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