X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis: Buyer Beware for Week 5? (2025)

Adael Amador - Fantasy Baseball, Prospects, Rankings

Michael's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 5 (2025), and whether to buy into MLB hitters and pitchers such as Nick Kurtz and Lance McCullers Jr. Should you avoid these popular names?

It's hard to believe, but it’s already time for Week 5 FAAB recommendations and questions. Just when you thought it was safe to focus on the crusty veterans and turn the page on the flood of prospect promotions, we had a few new faces reach the majors recently, most notably in West Sacramento.

That’s right, it’s Nick Kurtz week. This could bring the most extravagant bids on a position player we've seen all season. It sure didn’t quell the burgeoning excitement when Kurtz ripped a 112 miles per hour single in his first game. In addition to the Athletics first baseman, we’ve got another former top prospect and a returning veteran starting pitcher on the docket.

However, in this space, we are not here to hype but to turn on the lights and send everyone home. Take that lampshade off your head, it’s time to sober up. To the names!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Nick Kurtz — 1B, Athletics, 44% rostered

Almost nothing we can say will stem the impending FAAB frenzy for Kurtz. It’s rare for a true potential power standout to pop up on the waiver wire, especially in deeper leagues. Nevertheless, the task with this article is to play Grinch, so let’s see what holes we can poke in the rookie’s profile.

That rookie status is a good place to start. Despite Kurtz’s draft pedigree (fourth overall) and prospect ranks (No. 1 Athletics, No. 35 overall per MLB Pipeline), we have seen even higher-end prospects fall flat initially, from Mike Trout to Jackson Holliday.

Kurtz rampaged through the minors in Langfordian fashion, but Wyatt Langford himself took five months to establish himself, with a huge September salvaging his overall season line. There’s a decent chance Kurtz will require months, perhaps an entire season, to adjust to major league pitching after just 147 plate appearances in the minors.

Ah, but what outstanding 147 plate appearances they were! Last season, Kurtz cruised through A ball and Double-A by posting a 1.283 OPS and more walks than strikeouts. This year in Triple-A, he smashed seven homers in 97 plate appearances (1.040 OPS).

However, it’s noteworthy that at the higher level, Kurtz struck out almost 27 percent of the time compared to a 10.3 percent walk rate. Including college, that was the first time he did not walk more than he punched out. He produced a 144 wRC+, which is very good for a 22-year-old in Triple-A, but it’s not bulletproof.

The projections also tell us to keep our Kurtz expectations in check. ATC has him hitting .223 with a .289 OBP and 13 home runs in 110 games; if we assume he plays every game, that pro rates to roughly 17 dingers for the rest of the season.

That is fine, but for reference, it’s notably worse than the projections for Triston Casas and Michael Busch and lines up closer to what ATC expects from …  Jeimer Candelario (.239 average, .304 OBP, 13 home runs in 83 games).

Of course, projections are aiming for a 50th percentile outcome. Kurtz could well beat them and make a massive impact. He could, but as we’ve seen repeatedly in recent years, it often takes prospects months, if not an entire season, to adjust to major league pitching. Keep that in mind when setting those bids!

 

Adael Amador — 2B, Colorado Rockies, 1% rostered

The 22-year-old Amador has long been considered one of the best contact hitters in the minors and was called up by the Rockies on April 13. Managers desperate for help in the middle infield may be tempted to spend big based on the pedigree and the Coors effect.

The problem with Amador is twofold. First, we do not know how well he is going to translate to the majors after a mixed bag of minor league performances. One year, he hit over .300. Another year, he knocked 14 homers with 35 steals in 100 games — and hit just .230. He does not strike the ball particularly hard (25 percent hard-hit rate) nor is he especially fast (40 speed grade).

Amador began the season hitting .275 at Triple-A, but in the majors, he’s started slowly (.130 average) with pretty much league-average contact skills (84.4 percent zone contact rate). That is hardly portending a boon in batting average. So, there are real questions about what Amador will provide even with a full runway.

The extent of his runway is the other issue. Beyond Amador’s readiness for the majors, fantasy managers must remember this is the Rockies, and they could do anything. Just two weeks ago, we wrote about the risks that Zac Veen might not get an extended opportunity; he was sent back to the minors after just 37 plate appearances. Team management has already exhibited similar shenanigans with Amador.

For example, despite Amador being a switch hitter, he was benched against the first three southpaws Colorado faced — because whenever you have a .160 winning percentage and can get Kyle Farmer into the lineup, you must do it. Here’s a look at the usage, courtesy of FanGraphs:

Then, during Friday’s game against the Reds, Amador misplayed a grounder (though it was not an error), and they pulled him and pinch hit for him … in the fifth inning? This highlights why it’s difficult to trust the leadership of this organization, which had a 4-20 record at the time, to leave the young guys alone to play regularly.

The middle infield is shallow in deeper leagues, so we understand going after Amador in those formats. But we would exercise extreme restraint in setting bids. In shallower leagues, there are likely better options available (e.g., Christopher Morel at 23 percent or Gavin Lux at 25 percent rostered).

 

Lance McCullers Jr. — SP, Houston Astros, 5% rostered

It’s been so long since we’ve seen McCullers pitch in the majors (2022), you’d be forgiven for wondering if it wasn’t his dad — a reliever for the Padres and Yankees in the late 80s — returning next week.

Nope, McCullers Jr., the one-time Astros stud starter, is nearing his season debut following recovery from flexor tendon surgery (and related complications). He completed four innings in a rehab start on April 12 and is set to increase his workload in another Triple-A start on Saturday. If all goes well, it appears he will then join the Astros.

Lance McCullers Jr. threw 33 pitches in a bullpen today and felt good, he should make one more start this weekend in Corpus Christi before joining the team. #Astros

— Leah Vann (@lvannsports.bsky.social) April 22, 2025 at 6:35 PM

One can understand why fantasy managers would be interested in McCullers. Good waiver wire pitchers are scarce, and in his last full season, the righty posted a 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts over 162.1 innings. That was in 2021, as the flexor tendon issue limited him to just eight starts in 2022.

There are a couple of yellow flags here. First, McCullers has never been a paragon of control, with a career 9.8 percent walk rate that was above 11 percent in both 2021 and 2022. Command and control are typically the last element to return following elbow and forearm injuries, and indeed, McCullers has a 14 percent walk rate across his rehab starts.

The other issue is velocity. At peak, McCullers’ fastball sat above 94 mph and above 93 even in 2021-22. He sat just 91.4 in that April 12 rehab appearance. He did get a ton of whiffs (42 percent), but the velocity was down on his secondaries as well.

McCullers pitches for a good team and has a solid track record so we will bid on him where he’s available. But there are significant risks both for health and performance reasons, so discount those bids accordingly.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

DJ Moore

Bears Experimenting with DJ Moore in Backfield
Rome Odunze

Could Move All Around the Offense
NFL

Dave Canales Comfortable With Panthers' Young Receivers
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering NCAA Return
Dallas Goedert

Healthy for Week 1
Marvin Mims Jr.

Returns to Practice Monday
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Carted Off Monday With Knee Injury
Jason Adam

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Quadriceps Tendon
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Scratched on Monday
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Harry Ford

Called Up for Major-League Debut
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Chicago Bears

Bears Head Coach Admits Offense Could Face Learning Curve
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
A.J. Brown

Says He'll Be Active For Season Opener
Luis Garcia

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Max Scherzer

Exits Due to Back Tightness
Taylor Ward

Exits Early After Collison
Braelon Allen

Says He Has a Lot Left to Prove
Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Juan Soto

Homers Twice in Loss
Nick Kurtz

Avoids Serious Injury
MacKenzie Gore

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Reaches 25-Homer, 25-Steal Milestone
Chris Sale

Activated on Saturday
Dansby Swanson

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win
Nick Kurtz

Leaves Game With Oblique Soreness
Joe Burrow

Bengals Feel Joe Burrow Just had "the Best Training Camp of his Career"
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
De'Von Achane

Should be Ready for Week 1
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Green Bay Packers

Packers Acquire Micah Parsons, Sign him to Four-Year Extension
Jauan Jennings

Remains Sidelined at Practice
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Tyrese Haliburton

Expects to Return in 15 Months
Terance Mann

Confident About Having a Big Year in Brooklyn
Zaccharie Risacher

Aims to Improve Ball-Handling Skills
NBA

Pistons And Timberwolves Join Race for Malik Beasley
John Tonje

Signs Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Max Strus

to Miss 3-4 Months After Surgery

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP