Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis: Buyer Beware for Week 5? (2025)

April 26, 2025

Michael's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 5 (2025), and whether to buy into MLB hitters and pitchers such as Nick Kurtz and Lance McCullers Jr. Should you avoid these popular names?

It's hard to believe, but it’s already time for Week 5 FAAB recommendations and questions. Just when you thought it was safe to focus on the crusty veterans and turn the page on the flood of prospect promotions, we had a few new faces reach the majors recently, most notably in West Sacramento.

That’s right, it’s Nick Kurtz week. This could bring the most extravagant bids on a position player we've seen all season. It sure didn’t quell the burgeoning excitement when Kurtz ripped a 112 miles per hour single in his first game. In addition to the Athletics first baseman, we’ve got another former top prospect and a returning veteran starting pitcher on the docket.

However, in this space, we are not here to hype but to turn on the lights and send everyone home. Take that lampshade off your head, it’s time to sober up. To the names!

Nick Kurtz — 1B, Athletics, 44% rostered

Almost nothing we can say will stem the impending FAAB frenzy for Kurtz. It’s rare for a true potential power standout to pop up on the waiver wire, especially in deeper leagues. Nevertheless, the task with this article is to play Grinch, so let’s see what holes we can poke in the rookie’s profile.

That rookie status is a good place to start. Despite Kurtz’s draft pedigree (fourth overall) and prospect ranks (No. 1 Athletics, No. 35 overall per MLB Pipeline), we have seen even higher-end prospects fall flat initially, from Mike Trout to Jackson Holliday.

Kurtz rampaged through the minors in Langfordian fashion, but Wyatt Langford himself took five months to establish himself, with a huge September salvaging his overall season line. There’s a decent chance Kurtz will require months, perhaps an entire season, to adjust to major league pitching after just 147 plate appearances in the minors.

Ah, but what outstanding 147 plate appearances they were! Last season, Kurtz cruised through A ball and Double-A by posting a 1.283 OPS and more walks than strikeouts. This year in Triple-A, he smashed seven homers in 97 plate appearances (1.040 OPS).

However, it’s noteworthy that at the higher level, Kurtz struck out almost 27 percent of the time compared to a 10.3 percent walk rate. Including college, that was the first time he did not walk more than he punched out. He produced a 144 wRC+, which is very good for a 22-year-old in Triple-A, but it’s not bulletproof.

The projections also tell us to keep our Kurtz expectations in check. ATC has him hitting .223 with a .289 OBP and 13 home runs in 110 games; if we assume he plays every game, that pro rates to roughly 17 dingers for the rest of the season.

That is fine, but for reference, it’s notably worse than the projections for Triston Casas and Michael Busch and lines up closer to what ATC expects from …  Jeimer Candelario (.239 average, .304 OBP, 13 home runs in 83 games).

Of course, projections are aiming for a 50th percentile outcome. Kurtz could well beat them and make a massive impact. He could, but as we’ve seen repeatedly in recent years, it often takes prospects months, if not an entire season, to adjust to major league pitching. Keep that in mind when setting those bids!

Adael Amador — 2B, Colorado Rockies, 1% rostered

The 22-year-old Amador has long been considered one of the best contact hitters in the minors and was called up by the Rockies on April 13. Managers desperate for help in the middle infield may be tempted to spend big based on the pedigree and the Coors effect.

The problem with Amador is twofold. First, we do not know how well he is going to translate to the majors after a mixed bag of minor league performances. One year, he hit over .300. Another year, he knocked 14 homers with 35 steals in 100 games — and hit just .230. He does not strike the ball particularly hard (25 percent hard-hit rate) nor is he especially fast (40 speed grade).

Amador began the season hitting .275 at Triple-A, but in the majors, he’s started slowly (.130 average) with pretty much league-average contact skills (84.4 percent zone contact rate). That is hardly portending a boon in batting average. So, there are real questions about what Amador will provide even with a full runway.

The extent of his runway is the other issue. Beyond Amador’s readiness for the majors, fantasy managers must remember this is the Rockies, and they could do anything. Just two weeks ago, we wrote about the risks that Zac Veen might not get an extended opportunity; he was sent back to the minors after just 37 plate appearances. Team management has already exhibited similar shenanigans with Amador.

For example, despite Amador being a switch hitter, he was benched against the first three southpaws Colorado faced — because whenever you have a .160 winning percentage and can get Kyle Farmer into the lineup, you must do it. Here’s a look at the usage, courtesy of FanGraphs:

Then, during Friday’s game against the Reds, Amador misplayed a grounder (though it was not an error), and they pulled him and pinch hit for him … in the fifth inning? This highlights why it’s difficult to trust the leadership of this organization, which had a 4-20 record at the time, to leave the young guys alone to play regularly.

The middle infield is shallow in deeper leagues, so we understand going after Amador in those formats. But we would exercise extreme restraint in setting bids. In shallower leagues, there are likely better options available (e.g., Christopher Morel at 23 percent or Gavin Lux at 25 percent rostered).

Lance McCullers Jr. — SP, Houston Astros, 5% rostered

It’s been so long since we’ve seen McCullers pitch in the majors (2022), you’d be forgiven for wondering if it wasn’t his dad — a reliever for the Padres and Yankees in the late 80s — returning next week.

Nope, McCullers Jr., the one-time Astros stud starter, is nearing his season debut following recovery from flexor tendon surgery (and related complications). He completed four innings in a rehab start on April 12 and is set to increase his workload in another Triple-A start on Saturday. If all goes well, it appears he will then join the Astros.

Lance McCullers Jr. threw 33 pitches in a bullpen today and felt good, he should make one more start this weekend in Corpus Christi before joining the team. #Astros

— Leah Vann (@lvannsports.bsky.social) April 22, 2025 at 6:35 PM

One can understand why fantasy managers would be interested in McCullers. Good waiver wire pitchers are scarce, and in his last full season, the righty posted a 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts over 162.1 innings. That was in 2021, as the flexor tendon issue limited him to just eight starts in 2022.

There are a couple of yellow flags here. First, McCullers has never been a paragon of control, with a career 9.8 percent walk rate that was above 11 percent in both 2021 and 2022. Command and control are typically the last element to return following elbow and forearm injuries, and indeed, McCullers has a 14 percent walk rate across his rehab starts.

The other issue is velocity. At peak, McCullers’ fastball sat above 94 mph and above 93 even in 2021-22. He sat just 91.4 in that April 12 rehab appearance. He did get a ton of whiffs (42 percent), but the velocity was down on his secondaries as well.

McCullers pitches for a good team and has a solid track record so we will bid on him where he’s available. But there are significant risks both for health and performance reasons, so discount those bids accordingly.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis