RADIO
Michael Florio gives his favorite early-round value draft picks for 2022 fantasy baseball. These draft targets are undervalued based on ADP.
Fantasy managers spend a ton of time spent breaking down player skillsets and what a player can do well. Chances are if you are on fantasy baseball Twitter at any point, you will see people arguing about a player. There will be people saying to reach for someone and others saying to fade him. But looking strictly at a player's skillset ignores what is the most important factor when deciding to draft a player or not: the draft price!
So often fantasy players can get enamored with being on or off a player, that they will continue to do so whether the price increases or decreases. But that is a huge mistake. The best saying in fantasy sports is: “every player has a price.” It does not matter if you think you have identified the next breakout player, if that player is pulled up the board and you keep drafting them not only are you losing profit, but you could be paying for the ceiling. Or if you are out on a player and the price decreases, you could be leaving profit on the board by not drafting him.
The cost of a player should go hand-in-hand while breaking down a player's skillset. It is the best way to identify market discrepancies in average draft price (ADP) and having some undervalued players could be a huge boost to your roster. That is exactly what we will identify in this article - players that are being undervalued at their current consensus fantasy baseball ADP!
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Best Values to Target in the Top 200
Pete Alonso currently has an ADP of 45 overall, meaning you can often get him in the fourth round. He is coming off a season where he hit .262 with 37 homers, 94 RBI, 81 runs, and three stolen bases. The counting stats never reached what he did in his rookie season, but the Polar Bear grew as a hitter. He cut his strikeout rate to 19.9 percent after sitting over 25 the past two seasons. He also posted a career-high in average exit velocity, barrel percent, and exit velocity - all while having expected stats outperform his actual ones. What does that mean?
Alonso is becoming a better well rounded hitter and has room to grow on the gains he made last season. Add in that we know he has the potential to hit 50 homers and that the Mets lineup improved which should only help his counting stats and Alonso quickly seems like a player that can return value despite still being a pretty high pick.
Byron Buxton is a polarizing player in fantasy baseball this season. But there is no denying the skillset especially after posting a career-high batting average (.306), OBP (.358), SLG (.647), as well as the ISO (.340). But it's worth noting that his ISO sat over .320 for a second straight season. He also hit a career-high 19 homers despite playing just 61 games. If Buxton stayed healthy for an entire season he could be a 30/30 player - maybe even better. The Statcast numbers support the Buxton breakout as well as his exit velocity, max EV, and barrel rate were all career highs last season.
The only knock on Buxton is the health. That would be a legit reason to pass on him if the risk wasn’t already baked into his ADP. Buxton goes right around Alonso with an ADP of 45 overall, but if he stays healthy he could return first-round value. I understand some may not like to gamble with early-round picks, but Buxton has league-winner (if those exist in fantasy baseball) potential written all over him.
George Springer hit 22 homers in just 78 games in 2021. He was as consistent as he always is hitting right around his career norms in average (.264) and OBP (.352) but he did make strides in the power department. He posted a career-high in barrel percent (15.3), exit velocity (89.4), and launch angle (19.0), while posting a .291 ISO, the second-highest of his career.
There is no reason to worry about Springer other than the fact that he missed time due to injury last season. Springer had never missed extended time like he did last season, so to me, that screams buy the dip. What is even more appealing is that Springer should hit atop one of the best lineups in baseball. Something like over 30 homers with a solid average, five to 10 stolen bases with a lot of runs plus RBI is very possible and you can nab that value with the 56th overall pick right now according to ADP.
Kris Bryant has been climbing up draft boards ever since he signed with the Rockies, but his ADP still has not fully caught up. Currently he has an ADP of 70th overall, which is definitely higher than when he was going in the double-digit rounds at times a month ago. Bryant bounced back from a down 2020 season by hitting .265 (.353 OBP), with 25 homers, 10 steals, 86 runs and 73 RBI. He did so playing in Chicago and San Francisco, two pitchers' parks. Now he gets to hit in the absolute best environment and projections are seemingly expecting him to have a similar season as last year. If he hit 25 homers in those parks, I do not think 30 is out of the question.
Bryant has the potential to provide more homers with double-digit steals again, a better average and more counting stats. The best part? His ADP is not getting pulled in home leagues quite as rapidly as high stakes leagues, so you may be able to get him even cheaper. Buy, buy, buy!
Christian Yelich is coming off a down year where he hit just .248 with nine homers and nine stalls in 475 plate appearances. Thats now two down years in a row for Yelich if we count the shortened 2020 season. Prior to that, Yelich was putting up MVP numbers consistently. I am not saying you should draft Yelich and expect an MVP-type season, but ATC projections currently project 22 homers, 13 steals with a .273 average. That would be a solid season at his ADP of 97 overall. But we cannot view Yelich as if he does not have the upside to outperform that projection at just 30 years old.
Maybe he does not return top-five overall value anymore, but there is plenty of room for profit at his current cost. It's also one that already heavily bakes in the risk of him missing time. Take advantage and target him.
Charlie Morton goes off the board at pick 94 overall, so barely inside the top 100. This seems low given the emphasis we see placed on starting pitchers in the early rounds, given that Morton was a top 15 arm last season. He did so 3.34 ERA with a 3.32 xERA, 3.31 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP and 29 percent strikeout rate. The best part of all this? None of this is new for Morton, who has been this pitcher for nearly five years now.
I understand at 38 years old he may seem risky, but he threw 185 innings last year and 194 in 2019. There is no indication that he is not healthy and not fully capable of replicating the season he posted last year. Add in that he is on a team that has a great chance of providing wins and it's easy to see Morton is simply being overlooked for whatever reason. That is what we call a buying opportunity and one that you should look to take advantage of.
Pablo Lopez has long been a favorite of mine in fantasy baseball. He had the best year of his career so far in 2021, pitching to a 3.07 ERA, 3.55 xERA, 3.32 xFIP, with a 1.12 WHIP and 28 percent strikeout rate. He did so in just 102 innings (20 starts), which could explain why his ADP is 145 overall. But all projections expect him to throw at least 140 innings this season. If he keeps the gains he made last season, which only build on the improvements he made in 2020, and he throws 40 more innings, he will easily outlive his ADP.
All starting pitchers bring injury risks and that seems to be the only reason to be out on Lopez at his current cost. Let others worry about that and get a stud pitcher on your roster at a discount.
Nelson Cruz had a “down” year last season when he hit .265 with 32 homers, 86 RBI and 79 runs scored. I get the concern that at 40, Cruz is slowing down and the end is near. But the Nationals did go out and give him a multi-year deal showing they still believe he has some gas left in the tank. Cruz struggled once he was traded to the Rays, hitting .226 with eight homers and a .442 slugging - which is definitely low for Cruz. But we have heard about the poor conditions in Tampa impacting hitters - particularly with the batter's eye.
All projections basically have Cruz replicating his 2021 season, which at his cost of 165 overall, would return value. But if leaving Tampa has the affect on Cruz like I think it could, he easily could return to his pre-2021 form - or really his pre-2021 second-half form. If that is the case, Cruz will once again be pure profit - as he is always undervalued for being a utility-only player.
Anthony Rizzo currently has an ADP of 179. Seeing a former star have a crashing ADP is a natural part of life, but man how the mighty have fallen! Rizzo hit just .248 last year with 22 homers and 61 RBI. It was a strange season for Rizzo who was traded midway through the year and then caught Covid, which he said impacted him on the field. ATC currently projects Rizzo to hit .255 with 24 homers, 73 RBI, 76 runs and five stolen bases, which would pretty much return value at his cost. But given Rizzo's track record and the fact that he plays in a ballpark built for lefty power with a lot of boppers around him - I believe Rizzo can easily top those projections and smash his ADP in the process. I would be taking shots at a reduced cost.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio
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