RADIO
If you’re anything like me, you don’t like to be told what to think when it comes to fantasy baseball. I want to make my own judgments when it comes to assembling my fantasy roster. I’m convinced that you feel the exact same way. I respect that. If you’re anything like me, you want to be presented with as much information as possible and then make your decision independently. I don’t want someone else to tell me whom to pick up off the waiver wire or which hitter or pitcher I should target in a trade.
One of the biggest problems we all face as fantasy owners in the Twitter-era and the explosion of “expert analysis” is that there is simply too much information out there and not enough critical thinking. At RotoBaller, we want you to make your own decisions and that’s what this column is designed to do each and every week. Our goal is simple: to eliminate the noise and provide you with as much of the signal (statistical information and visual scouting observations) as possible to help you make informed decisions.
We're going to highlight several pitchers that stood out to me over the past week or so. I will be identifying which trends emerged for them that I will be examining going forward. This week’s edition of the RotoBaller Stock Watch examines the performance of five pitchers, all who excelled in their debuts, that fantasy owners should keep on their radar and strongly consider acquiring via trade or the waiver wire. The analysis that follows is based off visual observations along with PITCHf/x data, which can be found over at Brooks Baseball, an invaluable resource for fantasy owners everywhere.
Week 2 Starting Pitcher Stock Watch
Shane Greene SP Detroit Tigers
I wrote about Greene extensively here on RotoBaller this spring, labeling him as a potential breakout candidate. The projection was based on his proficiency in the “holy trinity” of pitching statistics (strikeout rate, walk rate and groundball percentage) and his mix of five legitimate pitches he flashed during his brief Yankees debut last season.
Greene’s stellar Tigers debut against the floundering Minnesota Twins offense (allowing just one un-earned run on four hits with one walk and five strikeouts over eight innings last week) did nothing to dampen my breakout forecast. It wasn’t just the statistical results that were encouraging. It was the evolving arsenal, highlisted by an improved changeup, which Greene used effectively to generate swings-and-misses to quality left-handed batters. Anytime you can get hitters like Joe Mauer and Danny Santana to whiff, thats impressive.
Aside from the changeup, that were more striking developments from the outing. Every pitching coach will tell you, the most important pitch in baseball is strike one. Greene delivered a first pitch strike to 22 of the 28 Minnesota batters he faced.
He followed up his Detroit debut with eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits while striking out a trio of Pirates in the win. Once again Greene lit up the strike zone, firing 56 of his 81 pitches for strikes without walking a batter.
Greene’s mix of a four-seam fastball, sinker and cutter accounts for nearly 80% of his total pitches. The increased usage of his changeup with less reliance on his slider bode well for him going forward. The other intangibles to keep in mind, which are nearly impossible to quantify, are an improved Detroit defense behind him with Jose Iglesias and Anthony Gose up the middle, and the offensive support their high-powered offense should supply. After seeing the improvements Greene talked about making all offseason in action right out of the gate, it’s nearly impossible to envision a scenario in which he doesn’t take a leap forward, and garner considerable attention from fantasy owners going forward.
Jimmy Nelson SP Milwaukee Brewers
Few pitchers posted a more dazzling debut than Nelson, who solidified his spot in the Brewers rotation by firing seven shutout innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates last week. More importantly for fantasy purposes, he struck out nine in the victory. Nelson threw 88 pitches total and generated 15 swings-and-misses by Pirates batters, which is more than he posted in any single start last season.
The most noticeable improvement for Nelson, which is reason for optimism that he will be able to maintain this level of performance, is his curveball, which he added to his repertoire over the offseason. He threw the pitch 24 times and got five whiffs. He only threw seven sliders in the outing, but got Pirates to chase on four of them. If the off-speed stuff led by the new curveball is going to continue to be a weapon for him, fantasy owners will be able to bank on Nelson taking a huge step forward this season.
CC Sabathia SP New York Yankees
It’s going to be impossible for fantasy owners to overlook the disastrous four-run second inning against Toronto in which he gave up five singles, but we are seeing the evolution of Sabathia into one of the premier control and command pitchers in baseball. Yes, you read that right. Let me explain.
According to the PITCHf/x data we have available, Sabathia isn’t even averaging 90 mph on his fastball anymore, but that’s okay because he isn’t bothering to throw it anymore this season. In his 2015 debut against the Toronto Jays, one of the best offenses in baseball, Sabathia threw his sinker 45 percent of the time, which is a 15 percent increase from a year ago. From watching his outing live it’s clear that Sabathia has a game plan to throw his hard stuff (fastballs) inside and then go soft away with off-speed pitches to get opposing hitters to chase. He struck out eight Blue Jays and didn’t walk a batter in his first start of the year.
He followed it up with seven strong innings against another loaded lineup in Baltimore this week. He took the loss against the Orioles despite pitching well. The veteran gave up four runs on seven hits with one walk and seven strikeouts. As long as the strikeouts continue to pile up, nobody is going to worry about the ERA or WHIP with Sabathia.
The Sabathia you knew and probably loved for fantasy purposes isn’t coming back, but his pinpoint command remains intact. As long he can continue to keep hitters off-balance, like he did against Toronto and Baltimore, he has a chance to be better than you think this season. I’m as surprised as you are, but it was hard not to be impressed watching his 2015 debut and follow-up performance.
Brandon Morrow SP San Diego Padres
The unfortunate injury to Ian Kennedy assures that Morrow will remain in the rotation, as long as he stays off the training table himself. Health has always been the issue with Morrow, to put it kindly. To speculate if this is finally the season in which Morrow stays healthy seems foolish, but the results while he is on the field have certainly been encouraging so far.
Time will tell if the move to the National League and the spacious confines of San Diego will be the magic elixir that unlocks his immense potential. Morrow dominated the defending World Champions in his Padres debut, tossing seven scoreless frames with just four hits allowed, three walks and seven strikeouts.
It’s a great sign that the fastball velocity is still there for Morrow, he averaged 95 mph in his 2015 debut, and he’s starting to use it less often, relying more on his secondary offerings. The Giants had trouble with his splitter more than anything else, so it would appear as though that’s the pitch to watch going forward, along with the health, for Morrow this season.
Aaron Harang SP Philadelphia Phillies
The 36 year-old veteran is not just getting by, he’s thriving, with smoke and mirrors at this point. Armed with a fastball that barely averages 90 mph, and an assortment of breaking balls, which he throws nearly 40% of the time, Harang held the Red Sox to just a pair of hits over six and one-third innings, while striking out eight in his first start of the season.
He followed it up with a hard-luck loss against the Mets, giving up just one run on four hits over six innings of work earlier this week. Wins will not be plentiful on a putrid Phillies squad that isn’t going anywhere, but the innings will be there all season for Harang if he stays healthy.
This isn’t the first time Harang has gotten off to a scorching hot start either. His early season performance is eerily reminiscent of his stellar start a year ago with Atlanta. He baffled hitters in his first five starts, giving up just three runs over 31 and two-thirds innings before the clock struck midnight and he turned back into a pumpkin, coughing up nine runs to the Miami Marlins on April 30th.
It’s no secret that pitching is deeper now than at almost any point in the last three decades, and it’s to your benefit that most fantasy owners have yet to realize that Harang is the un-sexy face of quality pitching in deeper formats, available in 80% of Yahoo! leagues. He won’t win you any style points, but bolstering the back-end of a fantasy rotation without any acquisition cost is exactly why he needs to be on your radar.
