5 Breakout Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Jarod Rupp's Picks

March 24, 2026

Jarod's 2026 fantasy baseball pitcher breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued starting pitchers and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

It's always a fun exercise to try to identify breakout players, as getting it right can deliver a big return on investment while hopefully providing enough production to give your fantasy teams a boost in the standings.

In this article, we will identify five breakout pitchers for 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. You can probably find plenty of other articles that outline the case for the first two I've chosen here, but with the other three, I've dug pretty deep down the ADP list. Speaking of which, the ADPs used here have been taken from NFBC drafts since March 11, so it gives us a good look at their recent prices.

Make sure to check out my Breakout Hitters article when you're done with this one. Without further ado, let's see which five pitchers will break out in 2026!

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP - 121

Emmet Sheehan has been a popular breakout candidate by many here at RotoBaller, and this author agrees with that notion. The right-hander was even one of the featured names in my very early 2026 Bold Predictions article way back in November.

The prediction in that article was that Sheehan could approach the top 20 in terms of strikeouts by the end of the season, which would get him close to 180 strikeouts. But that forecast was predicated on the 6-foot-5 hurler reaching just 150 innings, leveraging a 10.9 K/9 but limited by a potential six-man rotation in L.A. and the team being careful with his arm as he's not far removed from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in 2024.

Fast-forward to the present, and the oft-injured Blake Snell is already expected to miss the first month of the season at a minimum, meaning the Dodgers are could deploy the typical five-man rotation, which could lead to some extra innings for Sheehan.

The former sixth-round draft pick had notable strikeout rates during his time in the minors before debuting in 2023. In proving he was fully recovered in 2025, he tallied an exceptional 31:2 K:BB in 17 2/3 rehab innings at Triple-A before finishing out the season with the big league club with impressive results, which included a 1.11 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, and a 31.7 percent K-BB% (45:7 K:BB in 32 1/3 IP) over his final six appearances (five starts).

Only three starting pitchers met the below four thresholds in 2025:

70+ IP
K-BB above 23%
BAA under .200
FIP under 3.00

Tarik Skubal (Duh)
Paul Skenes (Also Duh)
And...

Emmet Sheehan 👀👀pic.twitter.com/4ojK7XgrtB

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) October 23, 2025

With strikeout upside and in an environment that should produce plenty of wins, along with solid ERA and WHIP potential, the Boston College product could have a breakout year. With an ADP around 121 but a RotoBaller ranking of 98 overall, the 26-year-old still looks like a value with just a week until the regular season begins.

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP - 125

Jacob Misiorowski has always had big strikeout numbers, even recording a 31.6% K rate over 81 innings at Triple-A dating back to 2024. The problem has always been the control, owning a 14.0 percent BB% during his career in the minors. The tall right-hander displayed the same traits during his MLB debut in 2025, producing a 93rd-percentile K% (31.9 percent) but also an 11th-percentile BB% (11.0 percent) in 66 innings (14 starts).

It resulted in a 4.36 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, neither of which is very fantasy-friendly, so is there hope for 2026? Well, of course, otherwise we wouldn't be talking about him here. One indicator of possible improvement is that, despite the high ERA, a 3.62 FIP and 3.56 SIERA suggest the actual results were worse than expected.

Additionally, in the 2025 postseason, the 6-foot-7 hurler struck out 16 batters (34.8 percent K%) while walking only three (6.5 percent BB%) in 12 IP. The catch is that those numbers came as a reliever, not a starter. Still, Milwaukee has a reputation for making pitchers better, and the flamethrower could take a step forward in 2026 if his 2025 postseason is any indication.

The former second-round draft pick has looked good this spring, too, albeit in just seven 1/3 innings of work. He's struck out 12 (40 percent K%) compared to just three walks (10.0 percent), so perhaps he's reigned in the command issues that have plagued him in the past.

With an ADP of 125, the 23-year-old is a viable third starter for fantasy rotations, but could end up being more like a No. 2. RotoBaller ranks Milwaukee's Opening Day starter right at his ADP of 126.

Max Meyer, Miami Marlins

ADP - 298

We're starting to dig deep here, and this is a player who has seemingly been on the precipice of a breakout for years now, but health has been a major limiting factor Max Meyer. The right-hander debuted in 2022, but Tommy John surgery in 2022 caused him to miss most of that year and all of 2023. He battled hip and shoulder issues in 2024, and hip surgery torpedoed 2025 after 12 starts.

In his 12 starts last year, though, he generated better-than-average strikeout (23.9 percent) and walk (7.0 percent) rates, which were in line with his other 13 career MLB starts. A 4.73 ERA is concerning at face value, but a 3.51 xFIP and 3.72 SIERA suggest things could have gone better for him in 2025. He even racked up 14 strikeouts in a single outing last year, showing what he's capable of.

Max Meyer's 12th, 13th and 14th Ks. 😳 pic.twitter.com/qEQQNPX7Tj

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 22, 2025

This is a former third-overall draft pick here, so you know the pedigree is there, but can he stay healthy for a full season? Well, for now, the former first-rounder is healthy and has looked good this spring. While you can't put too much stock in spring results, with someone like Meyer, there isn't much else to go off of.

The 27-year-old has yet to allow a run through seven innings of work in the Grapefruit League, yielding just three hits while striking out 12 and walking only one. Perhaps even more noteworthy is that his fastball touched 97.1 in his latest outing, compared to an average fastball velocity of 94.7 in his 12 starts last season.

Still not sold? Ok, well, the 6-foot hurler has an ADP of 298, so there is little risk involved in rostering him, and if he can stay healthy, perhaps he can finally live up to his status as a former top prospect in the Miami organization.

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

ADP - 330

I told you we're digging deep! Reid Detmers isn't exactly a household name, but there has always been potential with Detmers. He debuted in 2021, then made 25 starts in 2022, pitching to a 3.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 122 strikeouts in 129 IP. That season also included a no-hitter as a 22-year-old.

What a moment!

A no-hitter for Reid Detmers!

(MLB x @budweiserusa) pic.twitter.com/UZ9ohyejRd

— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2022

The ERA and WHIP took a step back in 2023, but the southpaw still managed to total 168 strikeouts in 148 2/3 IP (10.2 K/9). Things bottomed out in 2024 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, although he still produced 109 strikeouts in 87 1/3 IP (11.2 K/9).

It's possible the former 10th-overall draft pick figured something out last season after the team used him solely as a reliever (my colleague Andy Smith points out there was a change in his arsenal that could be the catalyst), posting a much-improved 3.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while striking out 80 in 63 2/3 IP (11.3 K/9). Like others here, xFIP (3.08) and SIERA (3.06) paint an even rosier picture of what could have been.

Still only 26 years old, the 6-foot-2 hurler is projected to be the Angels' No. 3 starter to begin the year. If he can carry over the success he saw last season, which included 93rd-percentile-or-better whiff and chase rates, along with a history of solid strikeout rates, then he could easily return value on his 330 ADP.

If, for some reason, starting doesn't go well and he's moved back to the bullpen, if he can replicate his success as a reliever, then perhaps he could still help fantasy managers with their ratios.

Mick Abel, Minnesota Twins

ADP - 327

Taken just five picks after the aforementioned Detmers in the 2020 Draft, Mick Abel toiled to a 4.78 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in his first 84 starts in the minor leagues. The 6-foot-5 hurler seemingly started to finally put it together last season, posting a 2.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a 16.1 percent K-BB% in 13 starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley before being shipped to Minnesota.

Not only did he not slow down, but he improved on his already strong performance to that point, boasting a 1.85 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an elite 26.9 percent K-BB% in five starts with Triple-A St. Paul.

The right-hander's success did not translate to MLB, posting a gaudy 6.23 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and a 13.2 percent K-BB% in 11 appearances (eight starts) last year. He did, however, finish the 2025 campaign with a six-inning, nine-strikeout win in his final start over the team that drafted him (the Phillies).

Mick Abel recorded 12 whiffs, including 7 on his fastball, in his first @Twins Spring Training action⛽️

3 IP / 2 H / 0 R / 0 BB / 5 K#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/xdVEyJfDBS

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) February 24, 2026

The former first-rounder wasn't expected to make the team's Opening Day roster, but after the spring he's had, Abel appears to have forced Minnesota's hand. The 24-year-old allowed four earned runs in 18 innings pitched this spring (2.00 ERA), manufactured a 0.83 WHIP, and tallied a phenomenal 30.3 percent K-BB% (23:3 K:BB), earning himself a spot in the rotation to begin the year while Zebby Matthews was optioned to Triple-A this week.

Abel is going around pick 327, but if he can continue to limit the walks and produce some eye-popping strikeout numbers early on, then he'll be on his way to a breakout and certainly warrant consideration at the end of fantasy drafts.

Honorable Mentions

Johan Oviedo, Boston Red Sox - having a strong spring with his new team, appears to have the edge for the fifth rotation spot. - Update: Connelly Early is expected to start on Sunday, March 29 with Oviedo potentially piggy-backing him, so Early appears to have the edge here.

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox - if not for Oviedo, he'd likely have nailed down the fifth rotation spot already based on his debut last year and the strong spring he's put together. He should be up with the team early on if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster. Payton Tolle is pitching well, too, and is a player fantasy managers should keep an eye on. - Update: as mentioned above, Early has made the roster and is slotted third in the rotation; he's expected to start this Sunday, so he is now a top waiver wire add.

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees - looking very hittable this spring, but could be a sneaky source of wins pitching for the Yankees and Ks with a 17:3 K:BB in 12 1/3 Grapefruit League innings, with upside if he can maintain a sub-4.00 ERA, which he's done in each of the last two (injury-plagued) seasons with the Marlins.

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