8 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Royce Lewis, Nick Lodolo, Pete Alonso, Max Fried, more

July 30, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 18 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 18 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll look at players like Royce Lewis, Nick Lodolo, Pete Alonso, and Max Fried.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will select a few players who have performed well recently and a few who have not, and I will analyze their performances to determine how their future outcomes may be affected.

There are only a few days left before trade deadlines pass for MLB and fantasy managers, making it a crucial time to assess the potential future value of key players. Hopefully, this week's article will help fantasy managers prep for any final trades or big roster moves!

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 27, 2025.

Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins (3B)

.244/.306/.396 Slash Line, 5 HRs, 20 RBI

Royce Lewis has been a fantasy hopeful throughout his career. There have been flashes of greatness, but injuries have derailed any extended performance. He had a slow first half, but has been on fire to start the second half. Could he put it all together for the rest of the season?

One encouraging sign is that he has hit the ball hard all season. Lewis has hit the ball harder than he ever has, and almost all of his Statcast metrics are above average. His expected stats for the season are significantly better than his current marks, suggesting he's had bad luck.

His .400/.444/.920 slash line in seven second-half games isn’t realistically sustainable, but it seems to be a fair run of regression. Lewis has exceeded his season metrics across the board in the second half, with a 95.4 MPH average exit velocity and a .350 BABIP.

Lewis' season numbers don't stand out, but he has done a lot of things well and has shown that he can be a high-end fantasy contributor when healthy. He is currently on a hot streak but is rostered in just 55 percent of leagues. I see no reason not to take a flyer on him for the second half, as he can be a fantasy game-changer.

Mickey Moniak, Colorado Rockies (OF)

.273/.324/.546 Slash Line, 16 HRs, 40 RBI, 5 SBs

Mickey Moniak was a former fantasy prospect who never panned out. After bouncing between several teams, he finally seems to have found a successful home with the Rockies, slashing .273/.324/.546 with 16 home runs in 281 plate appearances. The Rockies may not provide much fantasy value overall, but could Moniak be a contributor?

Moniak does have a power swing tailored to Coors Field. His 89.5 MPH average exit velocity is only league average, but his hard-hit rate, barrel rate, sweet spot rate, and bat speed are all in the top-30 percentiles of baseball. His 15.6-degree launch angle is also ideal for hitting the ball in the air, and his 19.5% HR/FB rate indicates he has been getting the most out of his power.

Mickey Moniak has been a force over his last 31 games.

111 PA, .373/.423/.804, 7 2B, 11 HR#Rockiespic.twitter.com/pjY6FrJOJs

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) July 26, 2025

His 83rd-percentile sprint speed has also helped boost his fantasy value. He has only attempted seven stolen bases, but he has six triples and 11 doubles to go with his 16 HRs.

It is difficult to fully buy into Moniak's breakout, given that he is already 27 years old. As such, he may be a tough sell-high candidate, but fantasy managers likely had to pay very little to acquire him. Hopefully, he can continue producing and taking advantage of Coors Field to be a second-half fantasy All-Star.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 27, 2025.

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

8-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 22.4% Strikeout Rate, 122 2/3 IP

Nick Lodolo appeared to be a verified fantasy asset in his 2022 rookie season, but he has been disappointing since. He has gotten back on track in 2025 with a 3.08 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 22.4% strikeout rate in 21 starts and 122 2/3 innings pitched. What should fantasy managers expect from him for the rest of the season?

Nick 👏 Lodolo 👏 what an outing today against the Nats...

CG, 4H, 8K, 0BB, 0ER
14 Whiffs
38 CSW%

The former first-rounder out of TCU is finally living up to the hype... I've been high on this kid for years, and it feels like it's coming together...pic.twitter.com/fWf1VDTeoK

— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) July 23, 2025

All in all, Lodolo's metrics look fine under the good, but not as good as his peripherals. His batted-ball profile has been essentially league average, which is not good enough to explain his career-low .261 BABIP. His batted-ball profile is also in line with his career numbers, so it may be tough to buy into his success.

He has also put together a career-low 4.6% walk rate, which is one of the best marks in baseball. However, he has only thrown the ball in the strike zone 1.6 percentage points more than his career average. He has amassed a high chase rate, but hitters have been swinging more against him and making more contact. This has dented his strikeout rate to a career low.

Lodolo's 3.71 xERA and 3.67 SIERA are still good, but they are not as stellar as his current ERA. There aren't any troubling signs under the hood, but there aren't many signs to be excited about. I think Lodolo should be a fine fantasy contributor the rest of the way, but I wouldn't mind seeing if another fantasy manager would trade for him at his peripheral value.

Adrian Houser, Chicago White Sox

6-2, 2.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17.1% Strikeout Rate, 68 2/3 IP

Adrian Houser has been a useful fantasy streamer at times in his career, but he has never provided consistent value. This narrative has changed since he joined the White Sox in May, as he has gone 6-2 with a 2.10 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 11 starts and 68 2/3 IP. Houser could potentially find a new home by the trade deadline, but could he continue to provide fantasy value?

Unfortunately, there are signs to suggest that he may be outperforming his results. Houser has always been a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact pitcher, and this season has been no different. As in previous seasons, he has allowed a lot of hard contact on the ground. His .292 BABIP is right in line with his .294 career mark, which makes sense.

What doesn't make sense is how his ERA is almost two runs lower than his career average. The thing that jumps out is his HR/FB rate. Despite his batted-ball profile being in line with his career marks, his 4.6% HR/FB rate is much lower than his 11.4% career mark. This seems to indicate good luck, given his approach has not changed.

Houser has found some extra velocity on all of his pitches this season, but a lot of his game resembles his previous seasons. This makes me skeptical of his success, but that doesn't mean I won't ride the hot hand. He is currently rostered in just 34 percent of leagues and would be on a better team if he gets traded. I wouldn't count on him being a fantasy asset next season, but he could be useful the rest of this season.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 27, 2025.

Pete Alonso, New York Mets (1B)

.269/.362/.513 Slash Line, 22 HRs, 81 RBI

Pete Alonso is having a strong season overall, as fantasy managers would expect. However, they haven't gotten much production from him in July, with a poor .171/.277/.371 slash line in 83 plate appearances. Do fantasy managers need to be worried?

Fortunately, the answer seems to be a clear no. Alonso's peripherals during his slump have been poor, but his batted-ball profile has been excellent. His season Statcast metrics have been outstanding. His 92.3 MPH average exit velocity and 45.3% hard-hit rate during his slump have been strong in their own right.

Alonso's .163 BABIP for the month seems to be a case of bad luck. He has continued to obliterate the baseball, but just hasn't seen the results lately. Fantasy managers likely wouldn't be willing to trade him regardless, but he would be a great buy-low candidate should any managers be worried.

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs (OF)

.227/.326/.382 Slash Line, 14 HRs, 49 RBI, 4 SBs

Ian Happ can usually be counted on to provide four-category production for fantasy managers. This has not been the case this season, as he has managed a .227/.326/.382 slash line with 14 HRs, 59 runs scored, 49 RBI, and four stolen bases in 433 plate appearances. Could he get things figured out to salvage the second half?

Nothing stands out in Happ's profile under the hood, which leaves hope for a rebound. He has hit the ball about as hard as he always has with the same launch angle. He has also walked more than his career average and struck out less than his career average. His career batting average of .245 isn't great, but nothing justifies his current .227 average, which is a career low.

Happ has the fantasy benefit of hitting in one of baseball's best lineups, so his runs scored and RBI counts have been fine. His decreased stolen base attempts may be due to having such a strong lineup around him, but this stat is partly about intent and not just skill.

Overall, his decreased power and batting average seem to be due to bad luck more than anything else. Fantasy managers may be frustrated with his performance, but I would be willing to give him a chance to let regression take its course. His partial production should be good enough to provide some breathing room in the interim.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 27, 2025.

Max Fried, New York Yankees

11-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 22.5% Strikeout Rate, 127 1/3 IP

Max Fried has had a strong season overall and has provided what fantasy managers have come to expect. However, he allowed at least three earned runs in each of his four July starts to a tune of a 6.52 ERA. Could Fried be a sell-high candidate while his peripherals still look strong?

It is easy to say that Fried could not sustain his 1.92 ERA, which he had from the beginning of the season through June. It is also easy to say that regression occurred all at once, and that even the best players experience ups and downs. These observations may be true, but there may be more going on.

Injuries have been an issue at times for Fried throughout his career, specifically blisters on his pitching hand. Fried missed participating in the All-Star Game this season due to blisters, and he may be trying to pitch through them while not at 100%. This is a risk that fantasy managers will have to weigh, especially because it is not a new issue for Fried.

Fried has seen a spike in his ERA and walk rate over his last four starts, coinciding with blister issues. Every fantasy manager considers injury risk differently, but the results for Fried have been starkly different from his first few months. Hopefully, he can get healthy, but I would consider shopping him if I had enough pitching depth.

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

7-9, 4.39 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 21.2% Strikeout Rate, 121 IP

Tanner Bibee came onto the fantasy scene in 2023 with a solid rookie season. While he has still provided fantasy value, he has gotten progressively more pedestrian results each season. He has been inconsistent this season with a 4.39 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 21.2% strikeout rate in 21 starts. What should fantasy managers make of his production?

Bibee's large drop in strikeout rate stands out. He has thrown three different fastballs for over 60% collective pitch usage. His cutter has been effective with a 12.9% swinging strike rate, but his four-seamer and sinker have both plummeted to 4.8% and 5.2% swinging strike rates, respectively. His changeup has been his best swing-and-miss pitch, but he has dropped that usage to a career-low 13.7%.

Home runs have also been an issue for Bibee at times. His batted-ball profile has been fine, and he has managed a career-high ground-ball rate. However, his 14.3% HR/FB rate is a career-high and has led to a 1.49 HR/9 rate. They have come in bunches, as Bibee has allowed at least two HRs in six of his 21 starts.

Bibee hasn't been awful by any means, but he hasn't been a consistent fantasy option this season. Some of his run issues could be overlooked if he were striking hitters out, but that aspect of his game has disappeared. At this point, it seems that fantasy managers may just have to hold onto their seats every time Bibee takes the mound.

More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis