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Andersen analyzes top fantasy baseball prospects risers, fallers, sleepers and busts for 2026. His MLB rookies report for Week 4 and recently promoted prospects.
Welcome to Week 4 and the fourth installment of RotoBaller's Fantasy Baseball Rookie Report for the 2026 MLB season, looking at prospect risers and fallers.
As we advance deeper into the regular season, we'll take a closer look at Coleman Crow, Parker Messick, Hao-Yu Lee, and Noah Schultz. Each is a top talent in their team's farm system who has already debuted early this season.
We’ll dive into their early performances, analyze what’s working (and what’s not), and offer insights on what dynasty fantasy baseball managers can expect as we get deeper into the 2026 season.
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Coleman Crow, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Crow was the Mets' 28th-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. He's been on the move a couple of times, heading to the Angels in a June 2023 trade for Eduardo Escobar and then to the Brewers in a December 2023 trade for Adrian Houser.
The right-hander has been developing in the minors for quite some time, and he didn't make his MLB debut until Friday against the Marlins. His call to the show was well-deserved, as he had put together a 2.47 FIP at Triple-A between last year and this year.
Rookie Profile:
Crow's calling card is his sleeper, which consistently generates north of 20 inches of horizontal break. He threw a pair of sweepers on Friday that had -25 inches of horizontal break; one resulted in a lineout and the other in a popout.
The right-hander isn't a one-trick pony, though, as he also throws a fastball, sinker, cutter, and curveball. His fastball and sinker are two distinct pitches, with the latter offering a little more upside because of its advanced shape. The fastball sat 91-93 mph on Friday, while the sinker averaged 8.2 inches of induced vertical break and 16.6 inches of horizontal break.
The cutter demonstrates sharp bite, while the curveball is a loopier option capable of missing bats. The latter consistently gets lower than -15 inches of induced vertical break, and it's a high-spin option at 3,000+ rpm.
One of the biggest deficiencies in Crow's arsenal is that he doesn't have an offspeed pitch that runs away from lefties. Possessing five different offerings is nice, but a changeup could really take his arsenal to the next level so that he's not relying entirely on breaking balls against lefties as his secondary offerings.
Nevertheless, things went relatively well for Crow on Friday night as he surrendered just two runs, four hits, and one walk over 5.1 innings of work. He also struck out four batters and maintained a 71.4% strikes percentage.
Dynasty Outlook:
Crow doesn't have elite velocity, and while he only got three swings and misses on Friday, he's still an intriguing strikeout threat in dynasty fantasy baseball because of his sweeper. He maintained a strikeout rate of 9.74 K/9 in the minors, and he limited walks to a clip of 2.80 BB/9.
Getting onto the 26-man roster was half the battle for Crow, honestly. The Brewers have a talented and somewhat crowded rotation, so the fact that Crow even got the call over prospects like Logan Henderson and Shane Drohan is encouraging for his long-term dynasty outlook.
Crow ranked as low as #692 overall in RotoBaller's latest ATC dynasty fantasy baseball rankings, so admittedly, he's not the flashiest name in dynasty leagues. Nevertheless, his strong debut on Friday suggests that he has a strong chance to stick in the major-league rotation going forward, and that bodes well for his chances of rising up the rankings in redraft and dynasty formats.
This Coleman Crow curveball.....
→ https://t.co/68EQQYUZ6Z pic.twitter.com/9xth2cHQbV
— Brewers.TV (@BrewersdotTV) April 18, 2026
Parker Messick, SP, Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians selected Messick in the second round of the 2022 MLB Draft. The Florida State product fetched a $1.2 million signing bonus and developed quite nicely, spending most of 2025 at Triple-A before making seven starts in the majors by the end of the year.
Messick posted an impressive 2.98 FIP, 6.3 K/BB, and 47.9% ground ball rate in the majors last year, so it was no surprise to see him open 2026 on the 26-man roster.
The southpaw still technically has rookie eligibility in 2026, despite debuting last year. He was brilliant in his outing on Thursday, falling just three outs short of a no-hitter. He has just three earned runs, eight hits, and seven walks over 19.2 innings of work this year. He also has 20 strikeouts over that period.
Rookie Profile:
Messick pitches from an advanced six-pitch mix, headlined by his changeup. The offspeed selection generates elite depth with decent run at 1.2 inches of induced vertical break and 14.4 inches of horizontal break.
Neither of Messick's fastballs is anything overly special, but the four-seamer has a decent shape and sits around 93 mph, while the sinker is just a tick slower with a little more running action.
FanGraphs' Stuff+ model also likes his cutter, which generates sharp bite with -1.3 inches of horizontal break. It's his least thrown pitch, but it is arguably more effective than his slider and curveball.
In addition to limiting runs, Messick has sneakily thrown strikes at a high clip. He owns a 66.2% strikes percentage this season, and that ratio jumps to 70.9% if you look at just his last two games. This ability to pound the strike zone indicates the potential for even more strikeouts, which would bode well for his fantasy outlook.
Dynasty Outlook:
Messick has quickly flourished into a pitcher that should be rostered across all fantasy leagues — not just dynasty formats, but redraft leagues, too. He doesn't have overpowering velocity, but the plus changeup and cutter give him effective pitches that he can use to generate whiffs against righties and lefties, respectively.
The 25-year-old now ranks #44 among starters in the latest redraft rankings, and his value is even greater in dynasty formats. He should be rostered in all redraft leagues going forward, and it's probably too late to get on the Messick hype train in dynasty leagues since he has already been scooped up in most formats.
Messick offers dynasty managers a young, talented arm capable of limiting runs and walks. Moderate velocity means he's not an elite strikeout threat, but he generates enough whiffs with the changeup to keep him right around 9.0 K/9 in the majors going forward.
What a night for Parker Messick!
He carried a no-hitter into the 9th inning and tied his career high with 9 Ks! 👏 pic.twitter.com/xgxUaFkhtg
— MLB (@MLB) April 17, 2026
Hao-Yu Lee, 2B/3B, Detroit Tigers
Lee originally signed with the Phillies back in 2021 as an international free agent out of Taiwan. However, he was the top prospect headed to the Tigers as part of the Phillies' trade for Michael Lorenzen back in 2023.
Time and time again throughout his development, Lee has produced. He produced 106 wRC+ with 14 homers, 22 steals, and an 11.2% walk rate at Triple-A last year, although he hasn't fared quite as well in a few tastes of MLB Spring Training action.
Rookie Profile:
Lee isn't the biggest power threat, but he could find his way to 15-20 big-league homers each year. He is capable of producing impressive exit velocities, which should continue to support his profile as a hard-hit contact guy with the ability to spray the ball to all parts of the field, often for extra-base hits.
Although the exit velocities are nice, Lee has occasionally run into some trouble by producing too many ground balls and not enough line drives. He's at his best when he's churning out line drives that either result in singles (setting up a steal) or find the gap and end up being doubles.
Lee is speedy enough to push for 30 stolen bases per season. His quickness kept him at shortstop back in his days with the Phillies' organization, but the Tigers appeared set on playing him at second and third base in the minors.
He made his MLB debut at third base on Friday, ultimately going 0-for-3 with a strikeout against the Red Sox.
Dynasty Outlook:
Lee's prospect profile should be highly appealing to dynasty fantasy baseball managers. He's still young at just 23 years old, and his profile consists of a nice blend of exit velocities, home runs, and steals. The higher side of his potential range of outcomes includes 20 home runs and 30 steals in a given season. Dynasty managers would love to get that production year in and year out.
Lee's plate discipline and swing decisions represent the biggest question mark as we continue to analyze his exact dynasty outlook. Last year's 11.2% walk rate helped to offset a higher-than-ideal 20.9% strikeout rate, but the fact that he opened the 2026 season with two walks in 27 Triple-A plate appearances was far from ideal.
Watching Lee produce over a larger sample size in the majors will be exciting, and it should reveal plenty about his long-term dynasty outlook from a plate discipline perspective. We're curious to see if he survives the rest of the season in the majors or if he gets sent back down at some point this month/year.
Needless to say, there's plenty of upside here, and Lee is someone who should be scooped up in dynasty fantasy baseball because of his encouraging batted-ball and speed profiles.
From Taiwan to the Major Leagues
Welcome to The Show, Hao-Yu!
從台灣到MLB
歡迎來到大聯盟，灝宇！ pic.twitter.com/qzdzCzbMUa
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) April 17, 2026
Noah Schultz, SP, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox selected Schultz in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft. He was fresh out of high school at the time, signing for $2.8 million as one of the draft's most appealing prep arms.
Schultz enjoyed a deliberate and productive period of development in the minors. He didn't really face any major hiccups until he reached Triple-A last year, but he cleaned up his results and got back on track with just two earned runs, 12.2 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and a 64% ground ball rate with the affiliate in Charlotte to open the 2026 season.
Rookie Profile:
Schultz showed off six different pitch types in his MLB debut on Tuesday, but two of them (the slider and the changeup) were thrown only twice.
The southpaw enjoyed throwing his fastball quite often, and for good reason. His four-seamer sat 96-98 mph, but it was deadzone for most of the outing with an average of 12 inches of induced vertical break and -12 inches of horizontal break. His sinker was a tick slower (95-97 mph) but had a much better shape with highly effective run (-18.3 inches of horizontal break).
Schultz's cutter has effective bite with 2.4 inches of horizontal break. It resulted in just two batted-ball events on Tuesday, but the pitch surrendered an impressively low 57.3 mph exit velocity over that small sample size. That number will go up in future starts, but it could still be the pitch Schultz turns to for weak contact.
The final component of Schultz's arsenal is his sweeper, which posted around 13 inches of horizontal movement and had a spin rate just shy of 3,000 rpm on Tuesday. Ben Williamson put one of Schultz's sweepers in play for a double, but for the most part, the combination of spin and horizontal movement gives the pitch high-whiff potential going forward.
Schultz's fastball velocity and offspeed selections looked intriguing, but he was roughed up to the tune of three earned runs over 4.1 innings of work in his debut. He allowed three hits and four walks, struck out four batters, and earned the loss. He maintained a 62.2% strikes percentage along the way.
Dynasty Outlook:
There's a lot of hype around Schultz in dynasty leagues, and rightfully so. Although his first MLB outing didn't go according to plan, the White Sox, baseball fans, and fantasy managers should all be encouraged by his track record and profile.
Schultz's six-pitch mix could use some refining, but we're very encouraged by the current state of his sinker, sweeper, and changeup. These three pitches should be the foundation of his arsenal going forward, at least as long as the four-seamer remains deadzone.
Schultz ranked as the #101 overall prospect and #21 pitcher in RotoBaller's latest dynasty fantasy baseball rankings, published on March 25 by Eric Cross. Despite his shaky first impression in the majors, Schultz should regain dynasty managers' trust soon. He'll put his stuff back on display with a scheduled start against the Athletics on Sunday afternoon.
White Sox top pitching prospect Noah Schultz takes the ball tonight 👏
The 6'10" lefty is bringing a WICKED slider to the bigs 😳 pic.twitter.com/Kz05izPuai
— MLB (@MLB) April 14, 2026
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