Fantasy Baseball Impact of the MLB Trade Deadine

Brady Grove analyzes the impact of potential MLB deadline deals for the 2015 fantasy baseball season.

With the MLB trade deadline arriving on July 31st, many teams are scrambling to get deals done to either make a run for the World Series this season, shoot for a wild card spot, or to begin the rebuilding process.

Some teams don't even know whether they are buyers or sellers yet. One thing that is for sure is that there are some major deals on the table that can have some serious implications for fantasy baseball.

The following players are being discussed as possible trade pieces, and depending on their potentially new environment; should either be traded for, added from the waiver wire, or should cause team managers to consider selling.

Starting Pitchers to Buy if Traded

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds

Cueto has once again had a great start to the season in Cincinnati with a 2.61 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, a 0.871 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, and 8.8 K/9. However, Cueto plays for the Reds, and the Reds are not a very good team. This is why Cueto has only six wins despite his fantastic statistics. Cueto is currently tied for 11th in MLB with three tough losses and receives only 3.50 runs in run support per start, which is the 2oth worst in baseball. There are rumors of Cueto heading to Houston, Toronto, New York (Yankees), and LA (Dodgers). If Cueto lands in any of these heavy hitting towns, team managers can expect Cueto to continue to perform. Cueto is already performing at a top tier level and his home park is the fourth highest rated HR park in baseball. Cueto's wins and potentially ERA could improve drastically if he is shipped to a contender who offers run support and more competent and experienced fielding than the Reds.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

Hamels has also been an elite starting pitcher this season, with possibly worse luck than Cueto. Hamels has a 2015 ERA of 3.02, a FIP of 3.33, a WHIP of 1.129, and a K/9 of 9.5. Hamels gets even less offensive help from the stagnant Philly offense, receiving only 2.76 of runs in support per start which is the fifth worst in all of baseball. This has caused Hamels to have only five wins on the season despite his stellar performance. Hamels has been linked to teams such as Chicago (Cubs), Toronto, Houston, Boston, LA (Dodgers), and Texas. Any of these teams are an improvement from Philadelphia. If Hamels gets dealt, like Cueto, he could see great jumps in his wins and ERA behind more competent fielding from a winning team. Make an effort to trade for him before it is too late.

Starters to Add if Traded

Aaron Harang, Philadelphia Phillies (20% owned in Fleaflicker leagues)

Although he is currently on the DL, Harang has had a solid and also unlucky season. This season Harang had a 4.08 ERA, a 4.08 FIP, a 1.236 WHIP, and only 2.3 BB/9. Harang's poor luck has also been a product of the Phillies' horrendous season. Harang currently is tied for third in baseball with four tough losses and receives only 2.65 runs in support per start, third worst in MLB. Harang has been discussed as a possible acquisition by the Pirates, the Astros, and the Jays. Once again, any transition is an improvement from pitching in Philadelphia. Considering that all of the teams looking to add a mid-rotation starter are playoff contenders, Harang is a great candidate for a successful second half. Look to add him if he is dealt to a winner.

Jonathan Niese, New York Mets (10% owned)

The Mets have far exceeded expectations for this season at 44-42 and currently sitting at second place in the NL East. However, their offense has been atrocious as they have scored only 293 runs on the season which is the third worst in baseball. This may be why Niese is tied for third in the league with four tough losses and why he receives the ninth worst runs in support per start (Just 3.00). He has been a solid starter with a 3.58 ERA, 4.17 FIP, and a 1.42 WHIP. Despite his reliable performance, Niese has a record of just 4-8. He has reportedly been drawing interest from the Cubs and the Dodgers. If Niese gets moved, or if the Mets happen to make significant offensive improvements at the deadline (Tulo perhaps?) then Niese's value goes up because he will have the run support he needs to turn his production into well deserved wins. Keep an eye on the Mets' transactions.

Closers to Buy if Traded

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

The "Cuban Missile" has continued his reign of dominance this season with a 1.73 ERA, a 1.84 FIP, a 1.183 WHIP, and an astounding 15.4 K/9. However, because the Reds are currently one of the worst teams in baseball, Chapman has received only 18 save opportunities (tied for 17th in MLB), and he has converted all but one of them into saves. Chapman has been linked to talks of possibly being moved to LA (The Dodgers) or Washington. If Chapman moves to either of these locations, assume that he will automatically take over the full time closer duties. That could mean a lot in terms of saves, as the Dodgers are a winning team and Drew Storen has had 27 save opportunities on the year. If Aroldis Chapman is dealt to a contender who will be in the lead when the ninth inning rolls around, trade for him in your league and reap the rewards.

Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

Year after year, Papelbon trade rumors abound. It is no secret that he wants to get out of Philly, and for good reason. Papelbon is turning in one of the brightest seasons of his successful career with a 1.60 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9. Despite his fantastic pitching, Papelbon has yet to receive any support from the Phillies offense as he has only 14 save opportunities this season (tied for 28th in MLB), and he has converted all 14 into saves. Teams that have been in talks for acquiring Papelbon are the Blue Jays, the Cubs, the Rangers, and "one of the Los Angeles franchises". It might sound like the beating of a dead horse, but any move away from Philadelphia is a huge improvement, especially when you are having an elite season and your team has only given you 14 chances to get a save in the first half of the seas0n. Since it looks pretty probable that Papelbon is traded, try to acquire him in your league and watch him rack of saves for a winning team in need of a lights-out closer.

Relievers to Add if the Closer on their Team is Traded

J.J. Hoover, Cincinnati Reds (4% owned)

Hoover currently has a 1.45 ERA, a 2.92 FIP, and a 0.96 WHIP on the season and has been an unexpected bright spot of the struggling Reds bullpen. If you are in a league where saves combined with low ERA and WHIP is hard to come by, keep an eye on Hoover. If Aroldis Chapman is traded, Hoover will be the front runner to take over the closer's role in Cincinnati. If that happens, expect Hoover to cash in on his save opportunities, as he is having a career year.

Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies (7% owned)

Giles is certainly not having a sophomore slump, and he really seems to be a youthful bright spot that the Phillies can use as a rebuilding component. Giles has a 1.95 ERA, a 2.40 FIP, a 1.27 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9. Much like Hoover, if Papelbon is traded, Giles is the clear heir to the closer spot in Philly. If you need saves and don't mind the elite level ERA and K/9 that Giles brings along, keep an eye on what happens to Papelbon. If Papelbon leaves, 93% of you can pick up a potentially elite closer.

Players to Be Wary Of

Tyler Clippard, Oakland Athletics

Clippard has 16 saves, a 2.52 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9 so far in 2015. This could however, get complicated if he is traded. While Papelbon and Chapman are so elite that they would immediately take over the ninth inning no matter where they go, Clippard is considered a cheaper option for teams like the Nationals and the Blue Jays who are looking to bolster their bullpen. If he's traded to either of these teams, much of his value could be lost by having to pitch behind Drew Storen or by possibly getting mixed up in Toronto's closer committee headed by Roberto Osuna who has had a fine season. Owners should consider getting rid of Clippard in case he is dealt to a team where he couldn't accumulate any saves. If Clippard leaves Oakland, Edward Mujica could see the majority of the save opportunities in the hectic A's bullpen.

Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox

Samardzija is being sought out by teams with HR-friendly parks such as the Yankees, the Blue Jays, and the Astros. He currently pitches in Cellular Field which ranks as the 23rd worst HR park with a 0.816 HR rating. Samardzija has seen a slight improvement from last season in HR% (3.0% to 2.4%). Samardzija has also seen decreased production in K% (23% to 19.8%), BB% (2.8% to 4.5%), XBH% (7.2% to 7.5%), and IF/FB% (16% to 13%). It may be a good idea to sell high after his recent run of success.

Prospects Who Could Benefit from the Trade Deadline

Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds (1% owned)

The Reds just moved Stephenson up to Triple-A Louisville where he has a 3.60 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9. He is currently ranked 12th by RotoBaller among the top 30 MLB ready prospects. Since the Reds are very likely going to move Cueto and Mike Leake and Josh Smith is likely to be sent down, Stephenson may see a wide open opportunity to make his way to the majors after July. If he does, his ability to limit damage through a surplus of strikeouts makes him a valuable call up for fantasy baseball managers. If room is created in the Cincinnati rotation through the trade deadline, look for Stephenson to fill it in style.

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