Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Busts Who'll Keep Junking It Up In 2024

brady singer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups starting pitchers

One bust of a season can be enough rationale for fantasy baseball owners to steer clear of a player going forward. For others, it can open the door for a buy-low opportunity with hopes of a bounce-back return to form.

However, it’s realistic for us to understand that many players never come back the same. A down year can be a fluke, or it may be indicative of a concerning trend. Predicting the new normal for players is a crucial part of the draft strategy, and identifying the sunk cost of a true bust when you see one is critical.

This article explores several starting pitchers who busted in 2023 compared to their ADP and unfolds why their struggles are likely to continue. There may still be some fantasy value left to salvage, but none of these players should be expected to perform at a pre-2023 level.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:


Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels

At this point, it’s safe to assume that Tyler Anderson’s 2022 dominance was the exception, not the rule. Across 30 appearances, the southpaw produced a phenomenal 2.57 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 157 ERA+ over 178 2/3 innings pitched. The outstanding campaign included Anderson’s first and only All-Star bid and landed him a three-year, $39 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels.

Heading into 2023, expectations were understandably elevated for Anderson. Unfortunately, the lefty failed to deliver. Not only did regression strike, but Anderson experienced his worst campaign yet in the majors. The struggles included a 5.43 ERA, 4.92 FIP, and 82 ERA+ across 27 appearances. Had Anderson pitched 21 additional innings, therefore reaching the 162-inning threshold to qualify for ERA, he would have ranked third worst among starting pitchers in the majors last season. 2023 wasn’t just disappointing; it was unsalvageable from a fantasy perspective.

Digging deeper into Anderson’s 2023 metrics, the struggles are further legitimized. His 5.06 xERA and 5.52 xFIP are hideous overall numbers. Those marks consisted of a .340 xwOBA, .259 xBA, .434 xSLG, and a 30.9% groundball rate – well below his 38% career average. While Anderson continued to induce weak contact, his campaign was plagued by control issues. He threw first-pitch strikes on just 59.9% of at-bats, down from a 65% career average. This resulted in a horrible 10.2% walk rate – up from a 4.8% walk rate in 2022 and a 7.1% career mark.

From a fantasy standpoint, there is not much to sink our teeth into with Anderson. At 34 years old, it’s safe to conclude that 2022 was an outlier performance. Anderson has never been a particularly attractive fantasy asset, underscored by an uninspiring 20.1% career strikeout rate. The gratuitous risk is not worth the reward.


Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

Unlike Tyler Anderson, Lance Lynn has been an appealing fantasy target throughout most of his career. That reputation was flipped on its head last season as Lynn was roasted by opposing hitters to the tune of a 5.73 ERA and 5.53 FIP across 32 starts. While there was some room for positive regression in Lynn’s advanced numbers, it was undoubtedly the worst season of his major league tenure.

There is no sugarcoating it – Lynn got lit up last season. He surrendered a league-leading 44 home runs in 183 2/3 innings pitched. That includes a .461 xSLG and a generous 10.4% barrel rate. While he retained some real-life value as an innings eater, there are only so many implosive outings a fantasy manager can withstand.

Lynn will be turning 37 this coming May, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he is simply approaching a natural cliff. Lynn relies overwhelmingly on the fastball. He threw fastball variations on 79.3% of pitches in 2023 and has led the league in fastball usage multiple times in his career. Lynn’s average fastball velocity sat at just 92.2 MPH last season, below the league average and a noticeable decline from his pre-2022 mark of 93.5 MPH.

Some view Lynn as a bounce-back candidate in 2024, though it’s more likely that the decline will continue. He’s losing velocity and lacks an effective off-speed repertoire needed to reinvent his pitching style at this point of his career. Lynn may be worth a speculative late-round pick but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t amount to much more than an occasional streaming option this season.


Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals

At only 27 years old, Brady Singer certainly has the most potential to bounce back out of all the names highlighted in this article. The former first-round draft pick struggled during his early MLB exposure in 2020 and 2021 but appeared to turn a corner in 2022, posting a 3.23 ERA over 153 1/3 innings pitched. Given his strong performance and top-prospect pedigree, expectations heading into last season were high.

Unfortunately, Singer’s 2023 campaign did not have many redeeming qualities. Over 29 starts, he produced a 5.52 ERA and 4.29 FIP. Excluding his respectable 7% walk rate, Singer’s metrics were ugly across the board. That includes a .276 xBA, 91 MPH average exit velocity, .346 xwOBA, .452 xSLG, 18.9% strikeout rate, and a horrendous 48.6% hard-hit rate. The results likely would have been much worse if not for his 50.2% groundball rate.

Looking broadly at Singer’s four-year career, inconsistency has been a headline. There are flashes of the front-end starter the Kansas City Royals have always envisioned, but altogether, he’s just been average. Singer owns a 98 ERA+ for his career. He’s shown no ability to miss bats consistently (22.7% whiff rate), and his reluctance to throw his changeup (just 6.3% of his pitches in 2023) leaves Singer with effectively a two-pitch arsenal. There may not be a next level to his game.

Singer isn’t a lost cause just yet. It’s reasonably likely that he will fare somewhat better in 2024. He’s young enough to improve, but 2022 created an expectation that Singer was blossoming into an ace. That no longer looks to be the case. The singer is still worth taking a chance on in later rounds, just at a much lower ADP than he carried this time last year.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!

More Fantasy Baseball Advice


Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts


Jaylen Brown5 mins ago

Out For Season Finale
Day'Ron Sharpe14 mins ago

Out Again On Sunday
Jayson Tatum19 mins ago

Out On Sunday
Dennis Smith22 mins ago

Jr. Ruled Out Versus Philly
Kristaps Porzingis29 mins ago

Out Sunday Versus Wizards
Dennis Schroder30 mins ago

Won't Play On Sunday Afternoon
Cameron Johnson35 mins ago

Won't Play Versus Philly
CeeDee Lamb52 mins ago

Cowboys Haven't Had "Substantial Talks"
Derrick White55 mins ago

Unavailable For Sunday's Game
Luke Kennard2 hours ago

Not Playing On Sunday
Vince Williams2 hours ago

Jr. Remains Sidelined For Sunday Versus Denver
Anthony Davis2 hours ago

Probable Versus New Orleans On Sunday
Martin Truex Jr3 hours ago

Should You Roster Martin Truex Jr. In DFS This Weekend At Texas Motor Speedway?
John Hunter Nemechek3 hours ago

Is John Hunter Nemechek A Core Play In DFS This Weekend?
Joey Logano3 hours ago

Will Joey Logano's Momentum Continue This Weekend At Texas?
Daniel Hemric3 hours ago

Struggles To Find Speed In Practice At Texas Motor Speedway
Ross Chastain3 hours ago

How Much Exposure Should You Have To Ross Chastain This Weekend In DFS?
William Byron3 hours ago

Is William Byron A Core Play In DFS This Weekend?
Alex Bowman3 hours ago

Will Start P14 At Texas Motor Speedway
Erik Jones4 hours ago

Has Huge DFS Upside at Texas This Weekend
Chase Briscoe4 hours ago

Should Be Avoided in DFS at Texas
Carson Hocevar4 hours ago

Excited To Be Back at Texas
Michael McDowell4 hours ago

Looking to Keep Good Finishes Going at Texas
Corey Lajoie4 hours ago

Has Sleeper Potential at Texas, But It’s Risky
Justin Haley4 hours ago

Not As Good As His Record Shows at Texas
Harrison Burton4 hours ago

a Low-Dollar DFS Sleeper at Texas
Andre Drummond6 hours ago

Out Again On Sunday
Javonte Green6 hours ago

Could Miss The Finale
Ayo Dosunmu6 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday Afternoon
De'Anthony Melton6 hours ago

May Miss Sunday's Game
Joel Embiid6 hours ago

Questionable For Regular-Season Finale
Spencer Strider11 hours ago

Undergoes Surgery, Out For The Season
Ryne Stanek14 hours ago

Converts Second Save Of The Season
Rafael Devers15 hours ago

Not Expected To Play Saturday Against Angels
Daniel Bard21 hours ago

Won't Return In 2024
José Leclerc21 hours ago

Jose Leclerc Temporarily Removed As Closer
Yariel Rodriguez21 hours ago

Starting Saturday
Eduardo Rodriguez21 hours ago

Rehab Stalled
Nick Pivetta22 hours ago

Will Resume Throwing Saturday
Carlos Correa22 hours ago

Likely Heading To Injured List
Walker Buehler22 hours ago

Pulled From Rehab Start
Joel Embiid22 hours ago

Tweaks Knee In Win Over Orlando
Joe Burrow23 hours ago

Confident He'll Stay Healthy
Brandon Aiyuk23 hours ago

Unfollows Niners On Social Media
Luka Doncic23 hours ago

Unavailable Sunday Versus Thunder
Kyrie Irving24 hours ago

Ruled Out Sunday For Mavs Regular Season Finale
Carlos Correa24 hours ago

Exits Early With Oblique Strain
Jonathan Kuminga1 day ago

Ruled Out Versus New Orleans
Gary Payton1 day ago

II Unavailable For Friday Versus New Orleans
Christian Yelich1 day ago

Exits Friday’s Game With Lower Back Discomfort
Justin Verlander1 day ago

To Make Rehab Start On Saturday
Rashee Rice1 day ago

Surrenders To Police
Alex Pereira1 day ago

Set For First Light Heavyweight Title Defense
Jamahal Hill1 day ago

Faces Alex Pereira In The Main Event Of UFC 300
Yan Xiaonan1 day ago

Set For A Title Shot At UFC 300
Charles Oliveira1 day ago

Returns To Action On UFC 300 Main Card
Arman Tsarukyan1 day ago

Has A Tough Test In Front Of Him
Laurent Brossoit1 day ago

Shuts Out Stars With 24 Saves
Lucas Raymond2 days ago

Erupts For Four Points
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Enters Top 10 On NHL's All-Time Scoring List
Sergei Bobrovsky2 days ago

Logs Sixth Shutout Of The Season
Timo Meier2 days ago

Notches Three Points In Win Over Toronto
Noah Dobson2 days ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Colton Cowser2 days ago

Hits First Two MLB Homers
Yariel Rodriguez2 days ago

Blue Jays Calling Up Yariel Rodriguez
Rafael Devers2 days ago

Likely To Need Another Day Off
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Astros Won't Rush Back Justin Verlander
Cody Brundage2 days ago

A Massive Underdog At UFC 300
Bo Nickal2 days ago

Puts Undefeated Record On The Line
Max Holloway2 days ago

Moves Back Up To Lightweight At UFC 300
Justin Gaethje2 days ago

Puts BMF Belt On The Line At UFC 300
Zhang Weili2 days ago

Defends Strawweight Title At UFC 300
Tom Brady2 days ago

Won't Rule Out Return To NFL
Treylon Burks2 days ago

Has To Earn It In 2024
Tua Tagovailoa2 days ago

Doesn't Plan On Holding Out
Mason Miller2 days ago

Locks Down Second Save
Jose Altuve2 days ago

Picks Up Three Hits Thursday
Bobby Witt Jr.2 days ago

Has Monster Day At The Plate
Brandon Lowe2 days ago

Heading To Injured List With Oblique Strain
C.J. Uzomah2 days ago

Expected To Sign With Eagles
Washington Commanders2 days ago

Commanders Hosting Top QB Prospects Next Week
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Browns, Nick Chubb Agree To Reworked Contract
Connor Hellebuyck2 days ago

Connor HelleBuyck Getting A Breather Thursday
Timothy Liljegren2 days ago

Could Return Before Postseason
Igor Shesterkin2 days ago

Getting A Rest Day Thursday
Matt Tomkins2 days ago

Getting Rare Start Thursday
Jake McCabe2 days ago

To Sit Out On Thursday
Joel Edmundson2 days ago

To Return On Thursday
Leon Draisaitl2 days ago

Enjoys Multi-Point Outing Versus Vegas
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins2 days ago

Picks Up Two Assists Wednesday
Jordan Kyrou2 days ago

Scores Twice In Wednesday's Win
Elias Pettersson2 days ago

Extends Point Streak With Power-Play Goal
Quinn Hughes2 days ago

Sends Out Three Assists Wednesday
Dylan Guenther2 days ago

Celebrates Birthday With Four Points
Tony Pollard3 days ago

Titans Calling Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard 1A And 1B
Rashee Rice3 days ago

Arrest Warrant Issued For Rashee Rice
Nick Foligno3 days ago

Out On Wednesday
Petr Mrazek3 days ago

Between The Pipes Wednesday
Connor Ingram3 days ago

Expected To Start Wednesday
Jayden Daniels3 days ago

Meeting With Giants On Monday
Jacksonville Jaguars3 days ago

Jaguars, Josh Allen Agree On Five-Year Extension
Jason Day3 days ago

Heads To Augusta After Rough March Stretch
Sepp Straka3 days ago

Save Yourself The Heartache And Don't Play Sepp Straka At The Masters
Bryson DeChambeau3 days ago

: The Battle Of Form Versus Recent History
Dustin Johnson3 days ago

Is A True Wild Card At Augusta
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

Lost With His Irons Of Late
Rory McIlroy3 days ago

In Good Form Heading To Augusta
Keegan Bradley3 days ago

Coming To Augusta National With Ice-Cold Putter
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looking For Putter At Augusta National
Tiger Woods4 days ago

Set To Make Another Start At The Masters
Nick Taylor4 days ago

A Boring Play At The Masters
Akshay Bhatia4 days ago

Earns Last Remaining Invite To The Masters
Tom Kim4 days ago

Looking For Turnaround At Year's First Major
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Making Second Start At Augusta National
Wyndham Clark4 days ago

Chasing History At Augusta
Will Zalatoris4 days ago

In Questionable Form Ahead Of Masters
Tony Finau4 days ago

Seeking First Major Victory At Augusta
Shane Lowry4 days ago

In Top Form Heading To Augusta
PGA4 days ago

Tyrell Hatton An Overlooked LIV Option At Augusta
Min Woo Lee4 days ago

A Risky Option For The Masters
Sergio Garcia4 days ago

Can Always Lurk At The Masters
PGA4 days ago

J.T. Poston Needs To Show Early 2024 Form Now
Chase Briscoe5 days ago

Has Great Run At Martinsville
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Still Solid Despite Teammates' Podium Sweep
Anthony Richardson5 days ago

Making Good Progress
CeeDee Lamb5 days ago

Holdout Could Be Coming For CeeDee Lamb
Chris Curtis5 days ago

Defeated Via Split Decision
Brendan Allen5 days ago

Wins Split Decision In A Back-And-Forth Fight
Morgan Charrière5 days ago

Morgan Charriere Drops Decision Matchup
MMA5 days ago

Jose Mariscal Edges Decision Win At UFC Vegas 90
Lukasz Brzeski5 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak At UFC Vegas 90
Valter Walker5 days ago

Defeated In UFC Debut
Joey Logano5 days ago

Had Best Pit Strategy But Lacked Winning Speed at Martinsville
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Fastest at Martinsville But Not When It Mattered
NASCAR6 days ago

Bubba Wallace Earns His First Top-Five Finish At Martinsville Speedway
Chase Elliott6 days ago

Finishes Third At Martinsville
Ryan Blaney6 days ago

Makes Best Of Evening At Martinsville