RADIO
Eric Samulski evaluates SPs who have developed new pitches for 2023 for Part One of his FSWA-award-winning series. Will these starting pitchers be fantasy baseball breakouts?
Welcome to a new season of the FSWA-award-winning series Pitchers with New Pitches (and Should We Care) where we take the simple premise that not every new pitch should be greeted with praise. A new pitch, like a shiny new toy, might be exciting on its own, but it also needs to be a complement to what a pitcher already has.
So instead of just celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, I watched the pitch in action, checked in on its performance, and looked at the Statcast Spin Direction graphics to see if it might actually make the pitcher any more effective. From there, I will try to give you a simple verdict as to whether or not we should care about this new toy or not.
This is my third season doing this series, and it's one of my favorite things to write. I hope that you enjoy it. It's also important to note that this is the first time many of these pitchers have thrown these new pitches in a meaningful game, so the overall quality and consistency may get better over time. I've tried to take that into account in my analysis. We should also note (for the purposes of this article) that I will be including pitchers that have reworked or revamped a pitch to make it "new" even if it was technically a pitch they already threw.
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Pablo Lopez - Sweeper
Pablo Lopez has always been an effective starting pitcher when healthy, posting an ERA of 3.75 or under in three straight seasons. Last year, we also saw him hit 180 innings for the first time in his career, which was cause for excitement; however, his strikeout rate dipped from 27.5% in 2021 to just 23.6% and his 16.4% K-BB% limited his fantasy ceiling.
A big reason for that was Lopez didn't really have a traditional "out" pitch. He posted a 12.7% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) overall, but the only pitch he threw with any consistency that had over a 12% SwStr% on its own was a changeup that posted a 19.4% SwStr% with 36.9% whiffs per swing. It was far-and-away his best pitch, but he paired it with a mediocre fastball (4.72 dERA and 9.95% barrel rate) and an even worse cutter (7.38 dERA and 16.3% barrel rate).
This is exactly where his new sweeper comes into play. Not only does it have the potential to be a swing-and-miss pitch on its own, but its movement pairs well with the changeup. You can see in the image below that the changeup has an arm-side run with a deviation of 45 on the clock while the sweeper runs away from right-handed hitters with a deviation of 60. This allows the pitches to almost mirror one another, which is what a pitcher wants.
Additionally, in March, Lopez talked about wanting the sweeper and curve to spin differently to give him more options, with one going north-south and the other going east-west. While it's obviously only been one start in 2023, the results are impressive.
Lopez made the sweeper the pitch he used the second most, racking up a 73% whiff rate and 47% CSW. The 26% zone rate isn't ideal, so we'd like to see him show that he can throw it for strikes, which will keep hitters honest. The 50% O-swing rate is appealing after this one start.
VERDICT: IMMENSELY IMPACTFUL. If we get Pablo Lopez but with more strikeouts, that's something everybody should be in on. His changeup remains an elite pitch, and he now has two other secondary pitches to help keep hitters off his fastball. That gives him a well-rounded arsenal and one that can induce strikeouts, so we love all of that.
Alex Cobb - Slider
Alex Cobb is throwing a slider and not a sweeper? WHAT IS THIS NONSENSE?!
Kidding, old-school sliders are still good, too, and this is an intriguing development for Cobb. He relies heavily on his splitter, throwing the split and sinker a combined 85% of the time last year. However, only the splitter was particularly good, allowing a .244 batting average and registering a 2.56 dERA and 17.1% SwStr%. The sinker, meanwhile, had a .272 batting average against, 4.77 dERA, and 5.0% SwStr%.
With the sinker not missing any bats and meant to induce ground balls, the splitter has been his only consistent swing-and-miss pitch. The introduction of the slider is then perfect because Cobb can use it to attack right-handed hitters (he threw all 19 to righties in his first start) and then rely on the splitter against lefties while dialing back the usage of a mediocre curveball.
The slider was pretty effective against the Yankees in his first start, posting a 50% whiff rate and 47% CSW. In fact, it was Cobb's best pitch with the Yankees handling the splitter pretty well, and Cobb struggling to find the zone with it.
And here is where we see the value with the slider. If Cobb's splitter is ineffective, he now has another pitch to fall back on. This wasn't a great start against the Yankees, but he allowed only one run on four hits while striking out six in 3.2 innings. He was able to mitigate damage because he was able to use the slider, which allowed just one single on three balls in play.
Lastly, you can see above that Cobb's sinker had a 34% CSW and it actually accounted for five of his six strikeouts. It's early, but I think the velocity gap between the 95 mph sinker and the 86 mph slider will be beneficial to Cobb against right-handed hitters. If a hitter is looking slider, it's going to be hard for them to catch up to the sinker as we see with D.J. LeMahieu here. In the past when hitters were expecting a 91 mph splitter, it made it a little easier to at least foul off the sinker since the velocity gap wasn't as drastic.
VERDICT: MARGINALLY IMPACTFUL. Cobb is going to go as his splitter goes, so the addition of a new pitch isn't going to drastically change him as a pitcher. However, I think the slider should make him a little bit safer and prevent some of the big implosion outings we've seen in the past when he loses the feel of the splitter.
Kyle Gibson - Sweeper
Hey, do you want this outdated toy that is missing a few pieces and is a choking hazard for your kid? No? What about if I paint it a fun color?
That's kind of how I feel about Kyle Gibson adding a sweeper. It's cool that he's joining the trend, but I don't think this should change anything for us. Yes, he had a 30% whiff rate on it in his first start, which is nice, and it was also an effective pitch for him in his second start; nevertheless, Gibson overall isn't missing a lot of bats. Also, he is still throwing so many other pitches that aren't effective that his overall line remains below average for fantasy purposes.
I like the sweeper itself through two starts, but unless he cuts out more than a few of these other pitches and remakes his arsenal entirely, I'm just not sure you're going to get anything worth chasing here.
VERDICT: MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL. Not everybody with a sweeper needs to be on your team.
Clarke Schmidt - Cutter
When you have a pitch that allows a .350 batting average, a .575 slugging percentage, and has just a 7.3% SwStr%, chances are you'd be better off if you didn't throw it. That's exactly why Clarke Schmidt went into this offseason and ditched his four-seam fastball for a cutter.
Schmidt had a great sweeper last year, posting a 2.06 dERA, 18.8% SwStr%, and 40.6% CSW on the pitch. His curveball was also solid, not missing many bats but allowing just a 3.7% barrel rate and a .068 batting average (.176 xBA). The problem was Schmidt's sinker and four-seam allowed too much contact, and he didn't have a pitch he could really get ahead with.
The idea behind the cutter appears to give Schmidt a fastball that won't get pounded and he can use it to get ahead of lefties or set up his secondaries. After one start, that might not be the case. The pitch posted a 33% whiff rate and 30% CSW, but it allowed three balls in play. All of those were hits, one of which was a home run to Brandon Crawford.
If you look at the video, you can see the idea behind the cutter. It has opposite movement from the sinker, so Schmidt can attack righties with the sinker and lefties with the cutter (he threw 26 of 27 cutters to lefties). The cutter also gives Schmidt another level of differentiation when he attacks lefties with his sweeper and curve, which he also only uses against lefties a majority of the time.
If Schmidt isn't going to use the cutter on righties, then he still has to throw the sweeper/sinker to them. This means he's relying on the sinker that hasn't performed in the past. That also means Schmidt's performance will still hinge heavily on his sweeper, with the cutter simply mitigating damage against lefties. However, he did allow a .268 batting average and .439 slugging percentage to lefties last year, so maybe that's not such a bad thing.
VERDICT: NOT OVERLY IMPACTFUL. Through one start, it seems like the cutter is just a weapon against lefties and allows some loud contact. If Schmidt can eventually induce soft contact with the cutter, then it will help him against lefties. This will raise his floor a bit, but this is not a game-changing pitch since it appears unlikely to add strikeouts or be used against right-handed hitters. That caps its overall impact.
However, I do think that the sweeper/curve-heavy Schmidt can still provide value in a lot of leagues. If the cutter doesn't work, you'll want to bench him against left-handed heavy lineups.
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