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If you're playing MLB DFS today, shout out to you as it's Sunday and it's the last day of the regular season! We have a 15 game slate to wrap this thing up!
My biggest piece of advice on large slates is to trust your research and process. Don't be afraid to fade some chalky spots or cross off some games entirely if you're not interested in them. Even if you are playing 150 lineups, you can't get exposure to every pitcher with a favorable matchup or offense with a solid Vegas total. You have to pick your spots!
Because it is the last day and several teams are not playing for anything, make sure you check lineups. Also, the star players on the teams that do not have anything to play for are at risk of being taken out of the game early and could only have a couple of plate appearances.
Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSI'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 10/3/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like DraftKings, and other sports.
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Cash Game Play
Walker Buehler ($9,500) vs. MIL
The Dodgers are playing for a chance to win the NL West. This likely doesn't matter, however, winning the NL ERA title is still within reach for Buehler. Buehler's K% of 25% is fine, the chances of a quality start and a win are among the highest on the slate as Milwaukee has already clinched their spot in the playoffs.
GPP Play
Reiver Sanmartin ($7,100) vs. PIT
Reiver Sanmartin surprised me with his first start in major league baseball and is in a great spot here for the second start. Pittsburgh has the lowest team ISO (.127). Their K% is one of the five lowest in the league. That limits the strikeout upside a bit but the lack of power also limits the amount of damage they are likely to do against a pitcher. The game was weather concerns so check the weather update before the slate locks!
Others to consider:
Hyun Jin Ryu ($8,000) vs. BAL - It's been a tough season for Ryu; his K% is just 20.1%, he's allowing 1.26 HR/9, and his hard hit% is a career-high of 41.4%. But guess what? Toronto is trying to get into a play-in game at this point. It's the Baltimore Orioles, it's a playoff game essentially, and it's a vet that's been around for a long time.
Logan Webb ($8,700) vs. SD - San Francisco is trying to clinch the NL West. Webb has been a nice surprise this season with a 26.4% K rate and 10 wins. The win is not a gimme, but San Diego has been struggling offensively. At the same time, spots like this where pitchers often really shine or falter. There is some downside because even though the Padres have been struggling, they have the talent in the lineup to put up runs.
Chris Sale ($9,800) vs. WSH - You are going to have to roll him out there with inexpensive bats. The good news is with this being the last day of the regular season, we are going to see some guys that normally aren't starters, in the lineup today. If you can find the value out there to make this work, Sale isn't a bad option. Boston is also playing to clinch a Wild Card spot and is going to be favored.
FanDuel GPP Stacks
I am a tournament player, so I am going to give some GPP recommendations, and then I will give some value plays on the slate that I think can be good for either your GPP lineup or for cash games.
1. San Francisco Giants: The Padres are putting out Reiss Knehr: a 15.7% K rate and a 15.7% BB rate. That's not a typo, that's horrid. A SIERA of 6.16 and an xFIP of 6.53. The Giants will play their usual lineup trying to clinch the NL West. Not much to think about here.
2. Toronto Blue Jays: They are playing for something like San Francisco, and they are facing a horrible pitcher in Bruce Zimmerman. I would consider stacking 2-5 so that you would have Teoscar Hernandez instead of Springer. Hernandez has the highest ISO against LHP on the team (.370) and the highest wOBA against LHP on the team (.470).
3. Kansas City Royals: The Royals are facing Charlie Barnes, who has a 10.7% K rate and 9.4% BB rate..... That is downright awful. The Royals should put up runs. Salvador Perez has an ISO of .320 against LHP, so he is a must. The Royals do not have as much home run upside as other teams, so I'd recommend either a full-stack, in hopes that the team strings together big innings, or play Perez as a one-off.
4. Colorado Rockies: Humberto Mejia is not a good pitcher right now: K-BB% of 8.4% and a SIERA of 5.16. The Diamondbacks bullpen is also not good. The Rockies typically do not project well away from Coors, so this is a leverage opportunity. If not trusting of a full-stack, consider going with a small secondary stack.
5. Cincinnati Reds: Mitch Keller has a K-BB% of 9% and a SIERA of 4.99. The bullpen in this game isn't good as well. Check the lineup to make sure. This game has weather concerns, check the weather before locking in players.
FanDuel DFS Value Plays
Here are some one-off options to help fill out your rosters that are at a value. You can also use any players from the above stacks as one-offs or make mini-stacks off of the recommended stacks above as well. When lineups are released, likely some value will open up, so be sure to check for the latest news and lineups.
1. Ji-Man Choi - 1B vs. NYY ($2,400) - If he plays, he is going to bat in the middle of the order and has an ISO of.250 against RHP going against Jameson Taillon.
2. Trey Mancini - 1B/OF vs. ($2,700) - Yes I suggested up top to consider Ryu. Don't play Mancini in a Ryu lineup. What if Ryu is broken and has a bad game? Mancini has a .250 ISO against LHP this season.
3. Kole Calhoun- OF vs. COL ($2,200) - Calhoun has a .180 ISO against RHP. Sometimes you need a cheap power bat and hope for an extra-base hit or a home run.
Best of luck, I hope it's a profitable slate, and you make a few dollars on MLB on the last day of the 2021 regular season!
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