RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! The Winter Transfer Window has come and gone and some clubs have made massive changes, while others are looking at the Summer to make moves. The Starting XI will be fluid for a few gameweeks as clubs get used to their new players and it is imperative that you watch closely for last-minute scratches prior to kick off
There are two large favorites heading into this gameweek, Brighton & Hove Albion -290 versus AFC Bournemouth and Manchester United -270 versus Crystal Palace. I will guide you through this five-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 22
Goalies
Robert Sanchez- DK $5.9K || FD $12
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
Sanchez and the rest of Brighton have faltered in form as of late, conceding 4 goals to Arsenal and 2 goals to Leicester and collecting just one clean sheet in the last five games in domestic play. Luckily, after a quick domestic break, they will be playing a transformed and questionable AFC Bournemouth team at home. Over Bournemouth’s 20 matches, they are averaging 0.95 Goals For Per 90 – seventh worst club in the league –. They are however the worst club in both Shots For Per 90 – 8.35 – and Created Chances For Per 90 – 6.4 –. This offers Sanchez the perfect spot to bounce back with a clean sheet, however, the odds of him having a ceiling game are slim to none due to the lack of production from Bournemouth.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): De Gea (DK $5.7K || FD $13), Alisson (DK $5.3K || FD $12)
Forwards
Leon Bailey-DK $7.2K || FD $14
Opponent - Leicester City
Outside of Evan Ferguson of Brighton, there are only a few viable options for strikers this gameweek and Leon Bailey will certainly fit the bill. The forward for Aston Villa will have a prime matchup against Leicester City who continues to struggle defensively. Leicester is seventh in both Shots Against Per 90 – 13.35 – and Chances Created Against Per 90 – 10 –. Despite the lack of shots and created chances against, Leicester is the third-worst club in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.6 – thanks to their keepers. For someone like Bailey who has struggled to score, this is a great opportunity. In his last five matches in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 14 shots, 4 created chances, 16 crosses, 4 corners, 5 tackles and 3 clearances.
Evan Ferguson- DK $8.3K || FD $17
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
Ferguson should no longer be a stranger as he was highlighted in the final match before the domestic break. The striker did not disappoint, posting 1 goal on his only shot. He will have another favorable matchup this gameweek against Bournemouth’s giving defense. They are the worst club in both Shots Against Per 90 – 16.05 – and Goals Against Per 90 – 2.0 –. They are also the second-worst club in Chances Created Against Per 90 – 11.8 –. In Ferguson’s last five appearances in domestic play – 2 starts – and his only appearances in the top flight thus far, he has 3 goals, 2 assists, 8 shots, 3 created chances and 1 interception. He is currently facing a late fitness test per Rotowire and his status leading up to kick off will need to be watched closely. If he does not start, Danny Welbeck and Deniz Undav will be the next candidates in line.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Nunez (DK $9K || FD $19), Weghorst (DK $4.5K || FD $16)
Midfielders
Bruno Fernandes- DK $8.3K || FD $21
Opponent - Crystal Palace
Fernandes should be back as an automatic ‘lock’ now that teammate Christian Eriksen is out with an injury. The Red Devils are expected to go back to the midfield maestro for set pieces, which would instantly boost Fernandes’s value tenfold. Through his last five appearances in domestic play, he has 2 goals, 3 assists, 11 shots, 14 created chances, 15 crosses, 8 corners, 13 tackles and 6 clearances. Crystal Palace is the fifth-worst club in Crosses Against Per 90 – 20.15 – and they are the seventh-worst club in Created Chances Against Per 90 – 10 –. This is a great floor play at a manageable salary with the possibility that Fernandes blows up and reaches his ceiling.
James Ward-Prowse- DK $8.6K || FD $17
Opponent - Brentford
Many will be intrigued by the expected return of James Maddison for Leicester City, however, we will pivot to James Ward-Prowse. The midfielder has been lights out for Southampton producing 4 goals, 10 shots, 12 created chances, 34 crosses, 19 corners, 8 tackles, 7 interceptions and 3 clearances over his last five matches in domestic play. The difference between Maddison and Ward-Prowse is both their salary and matchup. Ward-Prowse is the lesser of the two in salary and he has the better matchup. Brentford is the fourth-worst club in both Crosses Against Per 90 – 20.4 – and Created Chances Against Per 90 – 11.65 –. That is the bread and butter for Ward-Prowse. The hosts are also the third-worst club in Shots Against Per 90 – 15.25 –. To keep things in perspective, Aston Villa is the seventh-best club in Crosses Against Per 90 and the sixth-best club in Chances Created Against Per 90.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): March (DK $8.2K || FD $19), Jensen (DK $6.1K || FD $11)
Defense
Luke Shaw- DK $5.5K || FD $12
Opponent - Crystal Palace
Alongside Bruno Fernandes, Luke Shaw should also see an uptick in value with teammate Christian Eriksen out. The fullback is a candidate to oversee a portion of the set pieces as well and he offers plenty of open-play value too. Through his last five appearances in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 2 shots, 3 created chances, 13 crosses, 4 corners, 9 tackles, 5 interceptions and 12 clearances. As aforementioned, Crystal Palace is one of the worst clubs in Crosses Against Per 90 and that is where Shaw thrives on the left flank. With the lack of ‘safe’ plays at defense this gameweek, Shaw could garner a fair amount of ownership as well.
Alex Moreno- DK $5.3K || FD $12
Opponent - Leicester City
After making his move away from the La Liga for the first time in his career, Moreno has now played two matches – 1 start – for Aston Villa with Lucas Digne out with an injury. Digne may be healthy this weekend, however, Moreno is the expected starter. In those two appearances, Moreno produced 4 shots, 3 created chances, 5 crosses, 3 tackles and 3 clearances. Unsurprisingly, he produced similar start lines to what he was capable of in the La Liga for Real Betis. This is positive news for Aston Villa as they look for another quality and consistent fullback. Leicester’s defense was aforementioned above when regarding crosses against. This could be another floor outing for Moreno at home in a favorable matchup.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Robertson (DK $6.2K || FD $12), Killman (DK $2.7K || FD $10)
Corner Takers:
Aston Villa: Luiz/Bailey
Leicester City: Maddison/Barnes
Brentford: Jensen
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
AFC Bournemouth: Anthony/Christie
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/March
Manchester United: Fernandes/Shaw
Crystal Palace: Olise/Eze
Wolverhampton: Sarabia/Nunes
Liverpool: Robertson/Alexander-Arnold
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
