RADIO
I've never experienced heartbreak like I did during matchweek 31. Going into Monday, we were three for three (+117, +104 and +132) and got a correct score at +1150. Then came game four and with West Brom leading at half-time by two goals to nil, all we needed was Southampton to score in the second-half, against the league's worst defense no less, for a +143 pick and the +2385 parlay. It looked like it wasn't to be, then in the 93rd minute, Southampton was awarded a penalty kick only for England international and set-piece specialist James Ward-Prowse to miss it. It was a big weekend but would've been a monster weekend if that penalty kick was converted. It wasn't meant to be so we'll look for our luck to turn around this week. The FA Cup semi-finals this weekend means the matchweek runs into the midweek so be conscious of the spaced-out schedule.
- Picks total - 38 out of 86
- Correct scores - 10 out of 85
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won't be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
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Saturday, April 17th, 2021
West Ham United @ Newcastle United - 7:30 am ET
For the third straight game, West Ham scored three goals and once again, nearly finished without a win. In their last three games, West Ham has led by 3-0. Arsenal came back to draw 3-3, Wolves came back to 3-2 as well as Leicester did last week. That run won't continue but they should still have enough to beat Newcastle and I wouldn't be surprised if they did score three again here. Their nine goals in their last three games have come from just 15 shots on target so their proficiency in front of goal isn't going to maintain much longer.
As we predicted, Newcastle picked up a huge three points at Burnley last week, coming from behind to win. They've only kept five clean sheets all season and only one of those came at home. They did beat West Ham 2-0 on the opening weekend of the season but the two clubs have had very different seasons since. In their 15 league games at home, Newcastle has scored in all but three of them and I expect them to do the same against a West Ham side who has conceded seven in their last three games.
Newcastle United 17th - 32 pts
West Ham United 4th - 55 pts
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 2 West Ham United (Pinnacle odds +800)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line - West Ham United to win @ +111 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, April 18th, 2021
Fulham @ Arsenal - 8:30 am ET
Fulham is finding themselves falling away from 17th place and safety as they slipped to their fourth successive league defeat against Wolves last Friday. They will need to win four of their last six games to have any hope of survival and their earlier streak of draws this season never materialized into wins and enough points to stay up. They have conceded nine goals in their last four games as their ability to keep things tight defensively seems to have waned too.
Arsenal has a huge Europa League tie on Thursday and I don't generally like picking teams who have midweek European fixtures. But conversely, they are likely to be without two of their top players for Thursday (Aubameyang and Odegaard) but they should be back for Sunday so could offer some rotation options. Their erratic league form hasn't extended to games against sides currently in the bottom-4 of the league table. In the five such games, they have five wins with 15 goals scored and two conceded. That includes a 3-0 win against Fulham on matchweek 1 and a 3-0 win last weekend against Sheffield United. That was also their first clean sheet in the league for 10 games and while I believe they win on Sunday, I don't feel confident enough to back them at their odds nor keep a clean sheet
Arsenal 9th - 45 pts
Fulham 18th - 26 pts
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 1 Fulham (Pinnacle odds +1500)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Arsenal to score over 1.5 goals @ +100 (Pinnacle)
Wednesday, April 21st, 2021
Southampton @ Tottenham - 1:00 pm ET
Southampton has an FA Cup semi-final against Leicester City at the weekend and the players were clearly focused on that when they got humbled by West Brom on Monday. Regardless of their cup tie outcome, they'll likely exert a lot of energy in the game and having to play on Sunday, doesn't give them much of a turnaround for this game. If Fulham fails to win on Sunday, they'll have a better cushion between them and the relegation zone to enable them to rest some players for this game too. For the league's second-worst defense and a team who has conceded 12 goals in their last four games, that spells trouble for Southampton.
Tottenham plays Everton on Friday and I can see them winning that comfortably or getting soundly beaten, as has been their recent form. The pressure is mounting on Head Coach Jose Mourinho after they put in another uninspiring performance when losing to Manchester United 3-1 last weekend. But this is the sort of game they win comfortably and paper over the cracks at the club. Following recent previous bad league runs and results, they've beaten a side below them with ease (Leeds 3-0, West Brom 2-0, Burnley 4-0) and I expect the same again regardless of the Everton game.
Tottenham 7th - 49 pts
Southampton 14th - 36 pts
Score prediction: Tottenham 3 - 0 Southampton Leicester City (Odds not released)
Betting Pick:
- Single game parlay- Tottenham to win and Tottenham to score over 1.5 goals @ +100 (DraftKings)
Thursday, April 22nd, 2021
West Brom @ Leicester City - 3:00 pm ET
West Brom may have left their bid for survival a little late but they come into this game following back-to-back league wins for the first time this season. They also scored eight goals in those two games having scored just 20 in their first 29 games. They've improved defensively too with four clean sheets in their last eight games (five goals conceded). They still need to win 13 points from their remaining seven league games to realistically avoid relegation but they have given themselves a fighting chance coming into this game.
Leicester have their FA Cup semi-final against Southampton on Sunday and they come into this game with back-to-back league defeats which leave their top-4 (Champions League qualification) hopes in jeopardy. They had a late-season collapse last year which saw them miss out on the top-4 and they'll be desperate to avoid a repeat. They looked dreadful for an hour against West Ham last weekend and while I think they should win this game still, their form doesn't fill me with confidence that they will against a resurgent West Brom side. They showed some resilience in fighting back against West Ham despite missing some key players due to Covid breaches so should be able to field a stronger side here but the cup game might take enough out of them that this game is a struggle.
Leicester City 3rd - 56 pts
West Brom 19th - 24 pts
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 2 West Brom (Odds not released)
Betting Pick:
- Game Props - Both teams to score: Yes @ +102 (DraftKings)
Parlay
- You can take all four picks as a parlay @ +1605. Or, you can split them into two doubles with the weekend games offering +322 and the midweek +304.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back next week for the matchweek 33 picks.
