RADIO
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
The end of the season is looming and this weekend represents the last gameweek, consisting of just 10 games until the final Sunday of the campaign. With an extra game in Week 36 and two extra games in Week 37, we need to look ahead over the final month of the season but can't afford to take our eyes off this weekend's matches.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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Saturday, May 6, 2023
Bournemouth (+260) vs. Chelsea (+105)- 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 - 1 Chelsea
Four wins in their last five games have almost guaranteed Premier League survival for Bournemouth and actually put them level on points with their visitors this weekend. Chelsea looked for a spark when they sacked Graham Potter and appointed Frank Lampard as caretaker manager. Instead, it's been a damp squib with four straight defeats and an aggregate score of 2-8 in those four games.
Dominic Solanke has been a big reason why Bournemouth's form has been as good as it has been. He's scored three goals and has three assists in his last four appearances. He will be a solid play again this weekend. Marcus Tavernier is an injury doubt but fellow midfielder Sam Billing has nine goal involvements this season, four of which have come in his last 10 games.
Chelsea isn't worth considering in FPL right now. Midfielder Noni Madueke impressed in midweek, scoring his first EPL goal. At £5.4M, he is a decently cheap dart throw. Even with a double gameweek in Week 37, I don't see any Chelsea player I absolutely want to roster.
Manchester City (-575) vs. Leeds United (+1200)- 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Leeds United
City's march toward a fifth title in six seasons continues and they enter this weekend on the back of a nine-game winning streak in which they've scored 27 goals. Leeds' appointment of Sam Allardyce as manager until the end of the season is a desperate move. Given they've picked up just one point from their last five games, conceding 18 goals in the process, it's a desperate time for them.
City's star striker features later in the article and they have a myriad of FPL options. My concern is who starts for City as the quality of their depth is incredible and they have a huge Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid. But they also have two matches in Gameweek 37 so stacking three of their players is ideal.
Kevin De Bruyne has been carrying a knock. They may opt to ensure he's available for the Madrid games but Jack Grealish, Phil Foden, Julián Álvarez, and all of their defenders are of interest. Speaking of interest, I have none in Leeds this week but will be keeping an eye on someone in particular for their remaining fixtures.
Tottenham (-120) vs. Crystal Palace (+295)- 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 2 Crystal Palace
Tottenham goes from the ridiculous to the sublime and back to the ridiculous every game. Last week's defeat at Liverpool pretty much encapsulated their season and one point from four games has all but ended any top-four hopes. Palace is suddenly eyeing up a top-10 finish, having picked up 13 points from the six games since Roy Hodgson took charge. The 13 goals scored in that time are more than they had in their previous 20 league games.
Harry Kane continues to be the main FPL option for Tottenham and he's second in total points (225) this season. Nine goal involvements in his last eight games suggest he's still one of the premium FPL options over the final few games of the season. Son Heung-min has finally found some form with four goals and an assist in his last game while Ivan Perišić has three assists in his last five games.
Despite lacking an out-and-out striker, Palace has found success due to their attacking midfielders. In their last six games, Eberechi Eze has four goals, Jordan Ayew has three goals and one assist, and Michael Olise has four assists. Wilfried Zaha returned from injury last week and scored, but has a slight knock. I'd be fine rostering any one of these four.
Wolves (+195) vs. Aston Villa (+150)- 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 3 Aston Villa
With 37 points, Wolves should be safe but a repeat of last week's performance might make them a little more anxious than they should be. The first-half capitulation looked like a team already on their holiday. Villa's 10-game unbeaten streak came to an end last Sunday along with their 20-game scoring streak. With three games against top eight teams left after this weekend, they might feel a win this weekend will be vital if they are to qualify for next season's Europa League.
I haven't been tempted by any Wolves player in FPL apart from Ruben Neves and last week reinforced that. For Villa, Ollie Watkins has been one of the hottest forwards in FPL but has now gone three games without a goal. Alex Moreno has three assists in 12 starts since joining Villa. Wolves' struggles down their right side last week have me interested in the full-back. They also have another intriguing option covered later on.
Liverpool (-210) vs. Brentford (+475)- 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 1 Brentford
As unlikely as a top-four finish is for Liverpool, they have at least given themselves a chance with five straight wins and scoring 17 goals in the process. They've won 12 of their 17 home games, losing just once this season. Brentford appears to have put their slump behind them with back-to-back wins. Although they beat Manchester City away, that's the only top-10 team they've won at this season.
Mo Salah has now scored six goals in six games and looks as if he will be finishing the season strongly. Trent Alexander-Arnold's five-game assist streak ended on Wednesday but he still secured a clean sheet and now picked up 34 points in his last six games. Both are top options in FPL while Diogo Jota and Cody Gakpo starting on the bench in midweek leaves me to believe they start on Saturday and are decent options, too.
Ivan Toney has three goals in his last five games but all have come at home and he's blanked in his last three away games. He's a more high-risk play than I'd be comfortable with this weekend. There isn't another Brentford player on my radar in FPL right now.
5 - Trent Alexander-Arnold has assisted a goal in five consecutive Premier League appearances for the second time in his career (previously in August 2019), and is the only player in the competition's history to have done so twice. Premium. pic.twitter.com/FGxac7GAfd
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) April 30, 2023
Sunday, May 7, 2023
Newcastle United (+145) vs. Arsenal (+165)- 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 Arsenal
Newcastle's three consecutive wins and scoring 13 goals have put them on the brink of a top-four finish. With an extra match in Gameweek 36, they will look to secure a spot in next season's Champions League before the final fixture. Arsenal ended their four-game winless run and despite returning to the top of the table on Tuesday night, they will likely go into this game four points adrift of Manchester City.
With Newcastle having a double gameweek following this weekend, I'd look to ensure I have three of their players for that extra game. Kieran Trippier remains the most rostered defender in FPL (66.2%) but Newcastle has only one clean sheet in their last 13 games. He's tallied just two assists in that time, so it is far from a lock. Joelinton has four goals and two assists in his last six games, making him an intriguing play while their striking duo will be featured a little later.
Arsenal's midfield trio of Bukayo Saka (189), Gabriel Martinelli (191), and Martin Ødegaard (195) all rank in the top five of points-scoring midfielders. Along with striker Gabriel Jesus (five goals in six games), they should remain the best options in FPL. But with other teams having double gameweeks coming up, rostering three of them might not be the best play. Choose carefully.
West Ham United (+230) vs. Manchester United (+105)- 2:00 pm ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Manchester United
West Ham can't distance themselves from the relegation zone and three straight defeats (conceding nine goals in the process) have them still looking over their shoulder. Manchester United's defeat at Brighton on Thursday has left the door open for the teams beneath them to challenge for a top-four spot. They have yet to lose to a team outside the current top 10 so far this season.
West Ham's plans for their midweek trip to Manchester City were ruined when a trio of starters had to miss the game due to illness. The concern now is if it has spread throughout the squad and whether or not they will be able to pick a healthy team for Sunday. As long as they haven't been impacted by it, Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta are decent midfield options. Michail Antonio has three goal involvements in four games, so he should be on your radar this weekend.
Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes continue to headline Manchester United's FPL options. With two matches in Gameweek 37, it's well worth ensuring you have three of their players rostered by then. Adding in David De Gea (fifth-highest-scoring goalkeeper) and/or Luke Shaw (16th-highest-scoring defender) is a sound idea.
Monday, May 8, 2023
Fulham (+165) vs. Leicester City (+160)- 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 2 Leicester City
Fulham's season is petering out, with them having lost their last three games and scoring just once in that run. They can still finish in the top 10 with a couple of wins and that should offer some motivation. All three losses have been by one goal, so I don't suspect they have given up on the season.
Five points from their last three games has moved Leicester out of the relegation zone on goal difference and no one in the bottom half of the table has scored more than them (46).
Fulham lost Andreas Pereira to a nasty ankle injury last week and he will miss the remainder of this season. Their top scorer, Aleksandar Mitrović, will serve the last of his eight-game suspension this weekend. Fulham offers very few FPL options outside of those two, so they can be considered a fade this weekend.
Leicester's Jamie Vardy has three goal involvements in three games as he looks to help Leicester beat the drop. His £9.1M price tag is a steep one but he makes a good option this week at least. James Maddison has an assist in each of his last two games but a penalty miss on Monday denied him from offering a big return. Being rostered on just 5.0% of teams makes him an intriguing option if you're playing catch-up in your leagues.
Brighton (-285) vs. Everton (+700)- 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brighton 2 - 0 Everton
Despite their excellent season, Thursday's win against Manchester United was the first time since early January that Brighton has won back-to-back league games. It saw them move up to fifth and in with a great chance of European qualification for next season.
Everton has now drawn four of their last five away games but has yet to win on their travels since Sean Dyche took charge (seven games). All four draws came against sides in the bottom half of the table while their three games against the top 10 sides resulted in defeats and no goals scored.
With six games remaining, it's prudent to ensure you have three Brighton players rostered for the final weeks of the season. In Kaoru Mitoma, Alexis Mac Allister, Solly March, and Pascal Groß, they have four midfielders ranking inside the top 20 for points scored. Pervis Estupiñán and Lewis Dunk rank inside the top 15 among defenders and Luke Steele's 25 points in his last three games are the most among all goalkeepers. Just keep in mind they have to play the top three teams in their remaining fixtures.
All seven of Everton's away games under Dyche have seen them score twice or blank and I just can't bring myself to trust any of their players in FPL. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a bit of a gamble after scoring on Monday. If he's finally fit and getting his match sharpness back, I could be tempted to start him. But I feel like this is another blank game for Everton.
Nottingham Forest (+105) vs. Southampton (+260)- 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Southampton
After beating Brighton a fortnight ago, Forest was done in by their 2-1 defeat at Brentford last time out. They should be buoyed by the fact that only Wolves (26) has more home points than they have (24) among sides in the bottom half of the table. A defeat for Southampton will all but confirm their relegation. Having not won in nine games, they are set to go down with a whimper.
Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White has two goals and two assists in his last three games while 10 of his 13 goal involvements this season have come at home. He makes a sneaky good option this week, especially if he can pick up a clean sheet point as well. I'm not confident enough in Forest to keep a clean sheet but adding in Keylor Navas or one of their defenders is a solid option.
Southampton's four goals in their last two away games are worth noting but they scored just one in their previous five. Forest's 15 goals conceded from set-pieces is the second-most in the league. If deadball specialist James Ward-Prowse is going to end his barren run (no goal involvements in six games), this will be the week he does it.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Bournemouth 2 – 1 Chelsea | Bournemouth +260 | o2.5 -110 | Yes -135 |
| Man City 4 – 0 Leeds | Man City -575 | o2.5 -310 | No -120 |
| Tottenham 2 – 2 Crystal Palace | Draw +295 | o2.5 -135 | Yes -145 |
| Wolves 1 – 3 Aston Villa | Aston Villa +150 | o2.5 +110 | Yes -120 |
| Liverpool 3 – 1 Brentford | Liverpool -210 | o2.5 -200 | Yes -155 |
| Newcastle 2 – 1 Arsenal | Newcastle +145 | o2.5 -160 | Yes -200 |
| West Ham 1 – 1 Man United | Draw +275 | u2.5 +120 | Yes -185 |
| Fulham 1 – 2 Leicester | Leicester +160 | o2.5 -125 | Yes -160 |
| Brighton 2 – 0 Everton | Brighton -285 | u2.5 +130 | No -115 |
| Notts Forest 1 – 0 Southampton | Notts Forest +105 | u2.5 -125 | No +100 |
| Season totals | 42/103 | 64/103 | 47/103 |
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks
This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week.
Stack the D
Given their attacking talents, it may seem counter-intuitive suggesting to stack Manchester City defenders. But that's what I'm doing. In part, it's down to the uncertainty as to who they start in midfield each game. With Erling Haaland rostered by almost 90% of teams, there's little advantage to gain by building around his supporting cast.
So adding in a couple of defenders could be the optimal play. Leeds will almost certainly look to defend deep and in numbers, offering little attacking threat, so a clean sheet is very much in play. John Stones has been playing in a more advanced role, scoring twice in the last four games. Playing him with another City defender provides multiple routes to a good points haul.
Unloved Nuggets
Jacob Ramsey had five goal involvements in five games before his run of three duds coming into this weekend. But assuming Villa does find their attacking touch again this week, Ramsey is a great bet to be involved. Watkins is on over 20% of FPL teams, yet Ramsey is only rostered by 1.3%. If you do have Watkins starting this week, adding in Ramsey for a potential bigger points return is a savvy move.
Beautifully worked Aston Villa move ✨
Ollie Watkins nods the ball down for Jacob Ramsey to drill home at The Holte End 💜 pic.twitter.com/V8lvvLxD8N
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) April 15, 2023
Avoid the Trap
Kevin De Bruyne has sat out Manchester City's last two games and they will no doubt wrap him in cotton wool for their tie with Real Madrid. They should have no problem dispatching Leeds at home this weekend and then have a trip to Everton in what should be a physical encounter. Even if he is fit, I don't foresee the Belgian starting another EPL game until Gameweek 37.
For the Watchlist
Sam Allardyce made a career of maximizing what he could from "lesser teams." A large part of that has been from attacking set-pieces. Marc Roca has been Leeds' predominant corner-taker this season and has three assists. If Allardyce does emphasize set plays as a main route to the goal, Roca could find himself with a couple more assists this season.
Lock of the Week
No prizes for guessing that I'm going with Erling Haaland. He has 22 goals and seven assists in 16 home games this season, blanking just once. He has already set the EPL goals in a season record with five games to spare. While De Bruyne won't be risked this weekend, Haaland will still likely start. Although there's a chance he comes off early, there's also a chance he'd have scored a couple of goals by then, too.
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
