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Who are some wide receivers you should be avoiding in the early parts of fantasy football drafts? Andrew Ball breaks down three overpriced wideouts for 2024.
Nailing the selections at the top of fantasy football drafts won't necessarily lead to a championship, but whiffing on them will likely lead to a frustrating season.
According to ADP (average draft position), 17 wide receivers are being selected in the first three rounds in 12-team leagues. The first-round group of Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and A.J. Brown carry little risk (as long as Lamb and Chase resolve their contract disputes soon). Justin Jefferson is also in that tier. While he's the best wide receiver in football, the quarterback play of Sam Darnold is a mild cause for concern.
Round Two and Round Three are where the real question marks begin. Below, we play devil's advocate for three receivers and detail how their draft cost and production may not align to produce optimal fantasy football results in 2024.
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Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
You know things are bad in the desert when Adams was happy about Aidan O'Connell taking over midway through last season. Jimmy Garoppolo couldn't connect with Adams despite his job depending on it.
Davante Adams destroying Lions corners but unable to get the ball (one was in his hands but thrown behind him) pic.twitter.com/BaL2Vp5lPv
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 31, 2023
Adams played every game in 2023, saw the second-most targets in the NFL (175), and claimed an absurd 33.1% target share. That volume led to 15.6 PPR fantasy points per game, 15th among wideouts. His yards per target (6.5) and yards per reception (11.1) were his lowest since 2015, his second season in the league.
Speaking of when he entered the league, Adams is no spring chicken. He'll turn 32 in December and recent trends tell us that most receivers begin losing production after their 30th birthday.
Back to his quarterback play, newcomer Gardner Minshew II won the battle between him and O'Connell to be the Week 1 starter. Inconsistent play has been the narrative for both of their careers so far.
The Raiders added a new toy to the offense in the form of rookie tight end Brock Bowers. While the same argument can be made against Bowers for fantasy football, there's no arguing that he will have plays designed for him and will siphon targets from Adams. He'll also often occupy an inside receiver role, alongside Jakobi Meyers, keeping Adams on the outside.
Adams' ADP is toward the tail end of Round Two. Running backs Isiah Pacheco and Travis Etienne are in the same range. Take the safe running backs and you won't tear your hair out watching another deep pass sail over a wide-open Adams this season.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Toss aside all of the trade and contract extension rumors and let's talk about the player for a minute. Aiyuk just put together an all-time efficient 2023 campaign. Via PlayerProfiler, he was third in yards per route run (3.18), second in yards per target (12.8), second in yards per reception (17.9), and fourth in fantasy points per target (2.37).
The 49ers will run their offense through running back Christian McCaffrey first, wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. second, and then Aiyuk or tight end George Kittle, based on their weekly game plan. That doesn't lead to a flurry of targets the other top wide receivers around the league earn.
Aiyuk saw 105 targets (30th among wideouts) last season. He tallied double-digit targets in just one game. The offense remains the same, the one change being the addition of rookie first-round wideout Ricky Pearsall.
For argument's sake, let's say Aiyuk's yards per reception regresses to his career average. At another 75 catches (a reasonable mark given his career target rate), that would barely push him over the 1,000-yard mark. Add eight touchdowns to his stat line and that's a WR22 finish in PPR formats, if we are looking at the data from a year ago.
Aiyuk is being selected in the beginning to middle of the third round as the WR13 in fantasy football drafts this summer. It's an ADP that has slipped due to his lack of activity in training camp and swirling trade rumors. His value takes a significant hit if he's in another uniform, especially a Pittsburgh Steelers one.
Can this #49ers team WIN a Super Bowl without WR Brandon Aiyuk?? 👀🔊
Deebo Samuel: "I think BA's gonna be a part of this team so we don't have to worry about that."@19problemz @heykayadams @49ers #FTTB pic.twitter.com/OUbezjBnv9
— Up & Adams (@UpAndAdamsShow) August 16, 2024
Whether he ends up in Pittsburgh or he and the 49ers agree to the long-sought-after extension, Aiyuk has already missed half of training camp. He's not in game shape and there's a good chance he won't be when the season starts. As polarizing as Chris Olave and Drake London are, you're better off rolling the dice on those two over Aiyuk, especially in full PPR leagues.
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
First-year wideouts rarely return top-10 production. Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson have shifted recent history, so much that rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is being selected in the second round of 2024 fantasy football drafts. The trio racked up 1,400 yards apiece. That's three of the top four receiving yards in a rookie season.
What are the chances of a repeat performance? As we near the start of the season, worrying reports are coming out of Los Angeles. Nacua is week to week with a knee injury he suffered in early August. While Sean McVay expects him to be ready for Week 1, it's still a cause for concern.
#Rams HC Sean McVay on Puka Nacua (knee):
“Really just had a little bit of a bursa sac, kind of burst it, and it’s just gonna be week to week with him. Nothing serious, nothing structurally. He’ll be in good shape and he’ll recover and we’ll be ready to go. No threat of anything… pic.twitter.com/ok8t3yLo12
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 7, 2024
Nacua had more receptions (107) last season than his entire college career (105), and various ailments cost him a lot of time on the field in his days at Washington and BYU.
Joining Nacua on the sideline is starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He's dealing with hamstring tightness. Again, not a major concern on its own. Three projected starting offensive linemen, Alaric Jackson, Jonah Jackson, and Rob Havenstein are all dealing with injuries as well.
To recap, a quarterback, a star wideout, and three linemen are all currently sidelined for the Rams right now.
Once Nacua returns to the field, is he or Cooper Kupp the real WR1 for the Rams? Reports from training camp suggest that the Los Angeles offense "runs through Kupp." While he's older, he's fully healthy and could have a bounce-back season. His ADP has steadily risen throughout August.
Nacua's ADP has slipped, but only marginally. He was a late-first-round pick earlier this summer. It's now at the beginning of the second round, an ADP that is still too rich. View him as more of a late second-round or early third-round selection.
Nacua's rookie season wasn't a fluke. He's a tremendous talent that slipped into the fifth round of the NFL Draft. The anchor of your fantasy roster should be a clear-cut elite receiver or running back, not a currently injured player who may or may not be the second option on his team.
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