Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Dynasty Price Check - Josh Allen

The NFL offseason has arrived, which means that it's time for us to go all-in on dynasty mode.

The time between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft is the time for dynasty players to make some moves and try to make their team better -- or worse, if you're rebuilding and looking for draft picks -- before rookie drafts.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is an interesting player when it comes to dynasty leagues. He's young. He's mobile. He's looked...really bad at times. So, how should you value him heading into this offseason?

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!



Josh Allen
Team: Buffalo Bills
College: Wyoming
Age: 23
Height/Weight: 6'5", 237 pounds
2018 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 7


Case to Buy

Maybe the best place to start in terms of Josh Allen's value is to revisit the last time we saw him on an NFL field, which was Buffalo's playoff loss to the Houston Texans.

In that game, Allen was...Josh Allen. He was 24-for-46 for 264 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions. He added 92 rushing yards on nine carries, caught a 16-yard touchdown, and fumbled twice, losing one.

It was a game that featured Allen at his most him. His passes were inconsistent. He made big plays, then failed to make the small plays. He ran. He got sacked. He lost fumbles. He made many, many people stand up and yell "JOSH ALLEN" while watching the game.

It was the kind of game that dynasty owners can capitalize on. Allen was the overall QB6 this year, but I have a feeling his ADP come draft season isn't going to be QB6. If an Allen owner is worried about his long-term outlook based on how he looked in his first playoff game, you can try to capitalize on it by jumping on Allen.

Allen has rushed for 17 touchdowns in two seasons. His floor as a runner is incredibly high, so if Allen can stay healthy, he doesn't need to make a Lamar Jackson-esque leap as a thrower in order to be a valuable fantasy option. Allen's a quarterback whose on-field value is debatable, but whose fantasy value is high because of the way we do fantasy scoring.

That value has a chance to go up next year if the Bills can add another receiver to the mix to help Allen out. John Brown is a good deep threat and Cole Beasley is a good slot option, but the Bills need someone who can be the other outside guy and draw coverage away from Brown, opening things up for the offense. I think it's safe to assume that Buffalo at least tries to do that, whether it's via free agency or through an NFL Draft that's got a lot of good receivers in it.

In that scenario, Allen's got a good chance to finish as a top-10 quarterback once again, and the cost of getting him should be fairly low in a non-Superflex league.


Case to Sell

I mean, did you read that whole thing above about Allen's inconsistent play?

Here's the thing about quarterbacks in dynasty leagues, especially Superflex leagues: You need a guy who you can count on going forward, and part of what goes into that isn't just fantasy production but real-life production, because if a player isn't producing on the real field, they run the risk of not having a long term future.

Allen was third in fumbles last season. He was ninth in interceptions. He was last among qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage.

Allen has to get better at actually completing passes if he wants to have a long NFL career, and through two seasons I don't feel great about his chances of doing so. 2020 will be a telling season in terms of Allen's future, and it's very likely that his fantasy value is at the highest level it'll ever be at right now, because another season with a sub-60 completion percentage -- only three qualifying QBs had one this year, with Allen joined by Andy Dalton and Baker Mayfield -- is going to cast some serious doubt on him. Even with that erratic playoff game in mind, Allen's got more value -- especially in a SF league, where you can get a lot for a young quarterback -- at this current moment than he may ever have.


Final Verdict

So, what should you do with Josh Allen?

Let's break it down in both types of dynasty leagues.


This is where I'd be looking to get Allen if the price is right, or where I'd be looking to hold onto him if I already own him. I'm not super high on Allen's long-term future, but he can be a cheap, young quarterback who can help you now and has a chance to help you long term, and he won't be outrageously expensive like he might be if you tried to buy him in a Superflex league. I also don't really see you being able to flip Allen for pieces that will help you enough to justify the move, though you might have higher-profile quarterbacks on your roster who you could flip, and from there you can use Allen as your QB1. Even though I'm worried about his long term outlook, he should be a solid fantasy QB1 next year and in 2021.


This is where I go out and explore the trade market and see what I can get. One of my strategies in a SF league is to have one stud quarterback and then to not focus as much on who the second guy is, as long as I'm able to have two starting NFL quarterbacks who I can play the matchups with.

If Josh Allen is my second-best quarterback in a SF league, I'm checking out the market. Can I get a first-round rookie pick? Can I get a couple of guys who can fill in the position player gaps in my starting unit? Might as well check on it and see!

If Allen is my No. 1 quarterback, I suppose I hold onto him, because you don't want to end up without a top-10 guy.

More Dynasty League Strategy

Today’s Most Viewed Players

More Recent Articles


Bases Loaded Podcast - Relief Pitchers Preview

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is joined by Jorge Montanez, Zach Braff and Mike Simione as they jump into their relief pitcher preview! Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Jose Urquidy

It's been a tumultuous winter for the Houston Astros. Not only were they embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal (which has, naturally, progressed apace to unsubstantiated conspiracy theories about ever more sophisticated methods of cheating), but they watched staff ace Gerrit Cole sign a mammoth free-agent deal with the Yankees. Plenty of virtual ink has been... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Mark Canha

Mark Canha had a solid 2019 campaign and is one player that probably deserves more attention heading into 2020 than he is currently receiving. He finished the season hitting .273/.396/.517 with 26 HR, 58 RBI, 80 R, and 67 BB in 410 at-bats. It was a very productive line for a guy that played in... Read More

Four Prospect Sleepers for 2020 Redraft Leagues

Recently, Rotoballer launched a list of the Top 50 MLB prospects for the coming year. The top of the list was populated by names such as Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, and Brendan McKay. These players, among others, feature a promising combination of talent and favorable playing time projections to suggest they’ll be the cream-of-the-crop among... Read More

ADP Cost Analysis – Robbie Ray vs Trevor Bauer

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Second Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – C.J. Cron

As another fantasy baseball season approaches, we once again have the chance to discuss C.J. Cron as a fantasy sleeper. Cron will be playing for his third team in three seasons. It is tough to wrap one's head around the idea that a player of Cron's talent continues to be undervalued by professional and fantasy... Read More

2020 Starting Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a very different strategy if you wish to truly compete. All preseason long, RotoBaller has you covered with the latest rankings for all fantasy baseball league types. Here we present our points league rankings... Read More

Second-Half Improvements: Buy Into These Starting Pitchers

The second half of the season is always put under a microscope for starting pitchers. Fantasy players have a love for the second half of the season, as the belief is that pitchers who take a step forward could carry over that success the next season and perhaps even build upon it. But, as we... Read More

How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues

No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More

Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More

Faster and Furious: Pitchers with Rising Velocity/Performance

Welcome fantasy baseball players! I’m sure that you, like me, are anxiously counting down the days until your drafts and Opening Day. While the fantasy season may not start for several weeks, there are plenty of things we can do to start preparing for a successful season. One of those things is to take a good... Read More

James Karinchak Is A Relief Pitcher To Know in 2020

One of the lesser-known players that intrigues me for the 2020 MLB season is Indians relief pitcher James Karinchak. The former Bryant Bulldog was drafted by Cleveland in the ninth round in the 2017 draft and went on to have one of the most outrageous statistical seasons in minor league baseball history. As someone who... Read More