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Dynasty Rankings at Third Base
I promised I'd do something between the end of my football articles and the beginning of my regular season baseball articles right? Well here is the project I'm working on. Fellow RotoBaller writer Zach Wilkens and I are starting up a dynasty baseball league in January, which has me very interested in doing some dynasty baseball rankings. I'm going to do my ranks at each position, and then write "Dynasty Player Profiles" that go in depth about lesser known players who I feel are really worth owning.
We'll begin with Third Basemen specifically because the landscape is changing greatly with certain stars losing eligibility as well as some of the moves that have been made this offseason (looking at you Josh Donaldson). This list contains only those players who will have third base eligibility for at least the next two seasons.
This list will be updated as the season develops and eligibility changes. With that said let's get started:
Editor's Note: Don't forget to check out all of RotoBaller's 2015 fantasy baseball rankings and analysis to prepare for your fantasy drafts. Let's win some leagues!
Tier 1 - Dynasty / Keepers Third Base Rankings
1) Anthony Rendon, 24, 2B/3B, WAS
2) Josh Donaldson, 29, TOR
3) Nolan Arenado, 23, COL
4) Manny Machado, 22, BAL
5) Kyle Seager, 27, SEA
I really had a hard time here picking between Donaldson and Rendon. Picking Rendon ultimately came down to whether I believed his 20 plus home run power from last season was here to stay. Rendon has never hit over 10 home runs in a season before, but I ultimately choose to believe his power is real. Stealing 17 bags certainly didn't hurt, because as we all know Donaldson doesn't have much in the way of speed. Rendon is a young, five category contributor with multiple position eligibility.
Arenado is incredibly similar to Rendon, but without the stolen bases. He also doesn't get on base at nearly the same clip, but he was on a tear before getting injured last year. I'd love to own him in dynasty especially with Coors Field helping his numbers out.
To be honest, you can't go wrong with any of the players listed in this tier. I'd be happy to own any one of them.
Tier 2 - Dynasty / Keepers Third Base Rankings
6) Kris Bryant, 22, CHC
7) Adrian Beltre, 35, TEX
8) Todd Frazier, 28, CIN
9) Pablo Sandoval, 28, BOS
10) Evan Longoria, 29, TB
This tier sees two players who are on the opposite ends of their career. Longoria is still a great contributor, but I believe we've seen his best. Meanwhile, Bryant could easily jump to the top of this list. The only reason I have him ranked 6th instead of higher is because he has yet to play at the major league level, but his .325/.438/.621 line with 43 HR, 118 R, 110 RBI,and 15 SB in the minors last season is obviously very enticing. Plus, the Cubs are making moves to compete this year, and Bryant is part of that equation.
Sandoval has been declining in recent years but still has very usable numbers. I think signing with Boston will help him get back on track, especially with the Green Monster playing to his strengths. I could easily see an average of .280 or better for him this year with 15-20 HR.
Beltre has only failed to reach 20 HR in 6 of his 17 major league seasons. Talk about incredible! Despite putting off father time the past four years, I have trouble fully endorsing him in dynasty. The fact that he is ranked seventh speaks volumes about how much I respect him. He's an amazing win now piece, but you'll need another third baseman in two to four years.
Tier 3 - Dynasty / Keepers Third Base Rankings
11) Josh Harrison, 27, PIT
12) David Wright, 31, NYM
13) Matt Carpenter, 29, STL
14) Joey Gallo, 21, TEX
15) Brett Lawrie, 24, OAK
Harrison is not your typical choice for a fantasy third baseman, but he showed us something this past year. He should be the starting third baseman for the Pirates over Pedro Alvarez, and his ability to reach double digits in both HR and SB makes him a valuable commodity.
I know some people will be shocked by my low ranking of Gallo despite his .268/.394/.603 slash with 42 HR, 99 R, and 106 RBI across the minors, but you have to keep in mind that was across Single-A and Double-A. I need to see him in action in the high minors before he gets my full endorsement - ideally against major league pitching. His rank also fell a bit since he's blocked by Beltre, although a trade could change that.
Lawrie is an interesting guy because he has all the talent in the world. It's just a matter of him staying on the field. I tend to believe in Billy Beane even if he has made some questionable moves lately, and I see Lawrie as being a guy with 20/20 upside.
Tier 4 - Dynasty / Keepers Third Base Rankings
16) Nick Castellanos, 22, DET
17) Pedro Alvarez, 27, PIT
18) Miguel Sano, 21, MIN
19)Lonnie Chisenhall, 26, CLE
20) Aramis Ramirez,36, MIL
Castellanos didn't have super pretty numbers last year, but he did have the second best line drive percentage in the Majors after Freddie Freeman. His minor league numbers show a batter who hits for double digits in home runs with average and a little speed on the side. I like his potential, especially hitting in a Detroit lineup that now includes Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Yoenis Cespedes, J.D. Martinez, and Ian Kinsler.
Alvarez is a great source of power, but keep in mind he will most likely lose his third base position due to the emergence of Harrison. However, he should retain his eligibility for at least another year since most leagues are pretty relaxed about what qualifies. I'd take the risk on him and then trade him before he lost his eligibility. He has much more value as a third baseman than at any other position.
Sano is an exciting prospect for the Twins, but his development was stunted a bit due to injuries. He's not in the same tier as Bryant or Gallo because his minor league numbers haven't been nearly as good. However, in terms of his power, he can keep pace with the big boys.
Chisenhall had a great 2014, but I don't see him repeating. This article on Fangraphs seems to agree with me. In fact, I'd rank Chisenhall even lower, but I'm trying to hedge my bets just in case his production early in the year was a sign of a coming breakout.
Ramirez is the poor man's Beltre. He's still a good player, but he's older and more of a win now piece than your third baseman of the future. Hold onto him as long as your team is contention, but if your team falls out sell immediately.
Tier 5 - Dynasty / Keepers Third Base Rankings
21) Matt Dominguez, 25, Hou
22) Maikel Franco, 22, PHI
23) Yasmany Tomas,24, ARI
24)Will Middlebrooks, 26, SD
25) Chase Headley, 30, NYY
If you're looking for a third baseman at this point, you're looking for a diamond in the rough. In my opinion, your best option is Dominguez. I know many would argue with me that it's Franco, but hear me out for a second. Dominguez is an emerging power bat on a team that has Jose Altuve, Dexter Fowler, and George Springer as table setters. They also have Chris Carter and Jonathan Singleton as power protection for Dominguez. The Astros are an upcoming young team, and I'd take the chance on their emerging third baseman if I was still looking this deep.
Tomas has a ton of potential, and apparently the initial plan is for him to start at third for the Diamondbacks. According to most scouts, he won't be great defensively which means he could be moved off the position. Combine that with a lack of sample size, and you can figure out why I have him ranked so low. However, if he sticks at the position he could end up moving all the way up to Tier 3.
Middlebrooks was a top prospect who flashed brilliantly in 2012. The same can not be said of the past two years. However, given his youth and pedigree I wouldn't be shocked to see him move towards the top of tier 4.
A quick note on Headley - he is ranked low in this tier, but I think he still has a lot of potential. He could quickly move up my ranks, but his cap is the low end of Tier 4 at best in my view.
Tier 6 - Dynasty / Keepers Third Base Rankings
26) Conor Gillaspie, 27, CWS
27) Trevor Plouffe, 28, MIN
28) Martin Prado, 31, MIA
29) Chris Johnson, 30, ATL
30) Casey McGehee, 32, SF
31) David Freese, 31, LAA
Plouffe has the best chance to perform out of this crop, but he does have Sano on the way. Honestly, I ranked these guys simply because they will have playing time. Some players I'd rather rank in this tier are far from the majors.
Tier 7 - Dynasty / Keepers Third Base Rankings
Guys who lack access to playing time but should be on your radar in deeper dynasty formats:
32) Brock Holt, 26, BOS: Due to the Sandoval signing, Holt has lost his job despite hitting .281/.331/.381 with 4 HR and 12 SB last year in only 492 at-bats. Watch Holt to see if he gets traded to a team that needs a third baseman (rumors that he was going to the Angels recently fell apart).
33) Adam Duvall, 26, SFG: Duvall didn't do much of anything in his 77 at bats with the Giants in 2014. He did hit three home runs, which shows he has some pop. With Pablo Sandoval gone, the path is finally open for the Giants to find a new third baseman. He's shown a ton of power in the minor leagues while hitting for a middle of the road average. Don't be shocked if the Giants give Duvall a chance to prove he can be the guy.
34) Matt Davidson, 23, CWS: Gillaspie only has one year left on his contract and isn't a franchise changing player. This may open a path to highly regarded prospect Matt Davidson, who has hit for power at every level in the minors for the Diamondbacks and White Sox. However, Davidson needs to work on cutting his strikeout rate down from over 30 percent before he is a real consideration for major league action.
That's all I've got for now. If you want to tell me what you think of my ranks, you can always hit me up on twitter @RekedFantasy. Look for my rankings of other positions in the coming weeks, and make sure to check this article every so often in case I make updates. Zach and I will also be actively recruiting for our dynasty baseball league starting in January, so look forward to that too!
Until next time RotoBallers,
-Rek
