Well that just happened.  Kevin Durant shook up the NBA landscape by leaving the only franchise he's ever played for to join a team that just set the NBA regular season wins record.  While the sky's the limit for the new super team Warriors, the Thunder are left devastated in the wake of Durant's departure, with Ersan Ilyasova and Kyle Singler about as steep of a downgrade from Kevin Durant at small forward as you could imagine. This team is now firmly out of the conversation as a title contender (as a former Sonics fan this is how I feel about that), but the team remains fascinating from a fantasy basketball perspective, most of the remaining star on the roster.

Will Russell Westbrook be the #1 Player in Fantasy?

One of the first fantasy hot takes to come out of the Durant signing was essentially this: with Durant and Stephen Curry cutting into each other's action and a monster usage rate coming to the Thunder point guard, Russell Westbrook is now the top player to own in fantasy for the 2016-17 NBA season. This was definitely the consensus on Reddit after the Durant signing.  I think in points leagues, where he's already been in the conversation for that spot, it's now indisputable.  He's also close enough in eight category (no turnover) leagues.  But those set-ups are non-standard, and most of our leagues are not going to be set up that way.  When it comes to standard nine category leagues -- we should hold our horses on considering Russell Westbrook with the number one pick.

Why? Because the hit you're going to take in turnovers.  Let's take a look at a couple of stat lines:

Russell Westbrook, 2015-16, full season

23.5 ppg, 7.8 reb, 10.4 ast, 1.3 3pm, 2.0 stl, 0.3 blk, .454 FG% (18.1 FGA), .812 FT% (7.2 FTA), 4.3 tov

Russell Westbrook, 2014-15, 2/21-4/15 (after Durant went down for good)

31.3 ppg, 8.8 reb, 9.9 ast, 1.7 3pm, 2.0 stl, 0.3 blk, .417 FG% (24.4 FGA), .833 FT% (11.1 FTA), 5.3 tov

The second line looks much better all around, doesn't it?  The ungodly amount of points, the extra rebound, plus the equivalent of having an extra Klay Thompson's worth of impact on your team's FT%.  It's easy to underrate that FG% and the massive impact it'll have on your team on all those extra attempts, though.  If you use a site like Basketball Monster to weigh the impact of each category, though, the overall value it'll spit out for each of those stat lines in a nine category league is very similar -- the 2014-15 line without Durant was only slightly better because of the big negative values in FG% and turnovers.  His overall per game nine-category roto value was still behind that of Curry, Durant, Anthony Davis, James Harden, and Chris Paul across each time frame.

Of course when it comes to head-to-head leagues, there's a difference between raw roto value and functional value, and Westbrook does have a lot more functional value.  Turnovers are a category most teams are ignoring anyway, since they're hard to account for.  In head-to-head, you're probably losing them most weeks anyway with a team build around Westbrook, so you don't care if he commits even more.  You could also choose to punt FG% in head to head leagues.  With a stat line like the end of 14-15, Westbrook would indeed be the best player in a FG%/TO punt build.  Of course, you could make the same statement about DeAndre Jordan in a FT%/3PM punt build -- it doesn't mean DeAndre Jordan is the best player in fantasy basketball.  But Westbrook is close enough without the punt, that there's a reasonable argument to go for it, if you assume that end of season line is what you're going to get.

That is a big assumption, though. Westbrook was really playing out of his mind during that stretch run trying to will the Thunder into the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, eventually falling just short of the Pelicans for the 8th seed on the final day of the season.  I don't know if that level of play is something that Westbrook could possibly sustain for a season.  Even without Durant, he's got guys to help him out and pick up shots.  I think the 14-15 stretch run is likely higher than we should expect Westbrook's counting stats to go.  Dreaming of a 30/10/10 season line is madness. However, this might be a good thing. If Westbrook can avoid hero ball, feed his teammates, and maintain some efficiency in his expanded role -- keeping his FG% in the .430s instead of down in the .410s -- there's a narrow path to being the best player in fantasy.  It is a tight rope act, though.  For however much usage goes up to boost his fantasy value, his efficiency will likely come down as he takes worse shots and draws more attention on defense.

Finally, all this thought might be for naught if the Thunder conclude they won't be able to re-sign him and trade him away for assets. If that's the scenario, it's impossible to know if he'll be in a good fit, what kind of usage rate he'll have, and if he'll have the teammates to be efficient.  I'd put my money on him being better in the end on another team, especially one that can surround him with more outside shooting, but he could have a slow start on a new team, so it would still be hard to count on him becoming the top fantasy player.  In the end, it may not be interesting, but I'm not shifting Westbrook's fantasy value all that much in standard nine category leagues no matter where he's playing next season, and if I have him as a keeper, I'm putting him on the market and selling while his perceived value is so high.

Victor Oladipo and Steven Adams, a Worthy 2/3 Punch?

Meanwhile, there are other players in Oklahoma City.  After the trade of Serge Ibaka that brought Victor Oladipo to the Thunder along with wing/stretch four Ersan Ilyasova and the draft rights to big man Domantas Sabonis, I was intrigued by the prospect of Oladipo as a third wheel to Westbrook and Durant.  Lots of fantasy prognosticators were lower on his fantasy value on the new team, but I was intrigued.  If he could maintain the efficiency he showed in the second half of last season (starting January 1, he hit .472 on his FGs), made easier with all the defensive attention on Westbrook and Durant, it would make up for a lower usage rate.  I was okay with sacrificing a few points and assists for a higher floor in FG% and a few extra threes from all the wide-open looks he would've got.

Now, without Durant, my feeling about Oladipo reverts to how I felt about him on the Magic -- he'll have a great opportunity to rack up counting stats again, but I'm unsure if he can keep up that second half efficiency.  The big difference remains that the best defending guard on the opposing team still isn't going to defending him, like it would've been the case in Orlando.  Teaming with Westbrook in a backcourt will still have its perks.  The threat of the big men Adams and Enes Kanter will also keep things open on the outside for Oladipo.

Speaking of the Thunder bigs, the playoffs were a coming out party for Steven Adams on the big stage, but this upcoming season is going to be his breakout as a fantasy player.  Adams will be taking a lot more field goal attempts with Durant out of town, so his points and the impact of his elite FG% will go through the roof.  We should also expect his rebounding to move closer to double digits.  Assuming he also ends up taking more free throws with that poor FT%, that will end up being a drag.  But it won't be bad enough to make him untouchable in roto leagues, and he should approach elite territory as a FT% punt play in head-to-head leagues.

The Rest of the Crew

While it's clear -- barring a Westbrook trade -- that Westbrook, Oladipo, and Adams will be the new big three in Oklahoma City, the rest of the rotation is very much in flux.  We just don't know what kind of players Oklahoma City will bring in to fill the void.  It is likely we see Enes Kanter expand his offensive role a bit.  I find it hard to believe experiments with both Kanter and Adams on the floor will see much traction, so I'm not sure how much his playing time will increase, but he'll certainly get more opportunities when he is on the floor.

If Dion Waiters, who is an unrestricted free agent, returns, he's likely to see a big role.  You have to hope he learned something in his impressive season as a role player, and doesn't return to his old, ugly ways in a starting role.  Andre Roberson is likely to take a big hit in what value he did have, especially if Waiters re-signs.  The Thunder will be desperate for shooting on the floor, and he's not even that great at hitting all the wide-open threes he gets.  You have to imagine the Thunder will be going to Waiters and Ilyasova for offense rather than running out Roberson a ton.  A defensive specialist who doesn't need to touch the ball on offense has much less value when you only have one superstar to carry the offense instead of two.

The final point to make the on Oklahoma City -- Durant was an elite defender.  While the Thunder still have some strong defensive players in Adams and Oladipo, opposing teams will have an easier time scoring against them without Durant flying around with those long arms, wreaking havoc.  Players going against the Thunder will have a bit more DFS value now, particularly elite wings like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, or Paul George.