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Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It's great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! Cheap chalk ruled the DraftKings slate in Week 10, as value RBs D'Ernest Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Rhamondre Stevenson proved to be an essential part of winning rosters.
Unfortunately, as I type this it doesn't appear there are any viable $4k RBs floating around this week, which means lineup construction will be much tougher than it was in Week 10. There's also a 10,000 lb elephant in the room in the form of the Dallas vs. KC matchup. In this week's Break The Slate we'll dig into that game, as well as some of the close calls and difficult decisions that we're faced with on this interesting slate.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 11. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 11 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: As mentioned in the intro, this week's slate sort of revolves around the potentially-explosive matchup between Dallas and Kansas City, a game that - on paper - is what NFL DFS dreams are made of. Obviously, both the QBs in this matchup are elite options and will soak up tons of ownership at the position.
Josh Allen - IND @ BUF ($8,100)
On a slate where everyone will be focused on Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott, I'm really intrigued by the idea of taking the salary hit and paying all the way up for Josh Allen in GPPs. While his $8.1k price tag is noticeably higher than that of Mahomes or Prescott, I think it will result in the Bills' signal-caller carrying significantly less ownership than both of them. We know that the upside is there for Allen on any given week, but the chances of a ceiling game are elevated thanks to this matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. A true pass-funnel unit, this Indy defense stands second in the league in Run Defense DVOA, yet ranks just 23rd in Pass Defense DVOA and has allowed the most passing TDs (23!) in the NFL to this point.
Dak Prescott - DAL @ KC ($7,200)
There's a reason everyone will be focused on DAL vs KC this week. With a slate-high Over/Under of 56, explosive offenses that rank first (KC) and second (DAL) in the NFL in total yards, as well as second (KC) and third (DAL) in the league in average plays per game...this game environment is what DFS dreams are made of.
When discussing Dak specifically, his consistent floor has proven to be as good as anyone's at the QB position this season. Prescott has 20 or more DK points in seven of his eight games (I'm giving him credit for 19.9 against Denver a couple of weeks ago) this year. Obviously, we know this matchup features explosive skill players all around, but one of the rarely discussed aspects of DFS is the battle that takes place at the line of scrimmage. This matchup tilts heavily toward Dallas, as the Cowboys' elite offensive line should have no trouble giving Prescott plenty of time against a KC pass rush that has been non-existent.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 11 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: In comparison to last week's Value-A-Palooza, the RB position is tight, with one significant injury-driven play that will carry extremely high ownership.
A.J. Dillon - GB @ MIN ($6,200)
Last week's value darling was Cleveland's D'Ernest Johnson. This week we can expect Green Bay's A.J. Dillon to be the most popular player on the Main Slate due to the absence of Aaron Jones. While Johnson carried a no-brainer $4.7k price tag, Dillon's $6.2k salary at least makes us think about things a bit. With his ownership projection currently trending north of 35%, a calculated fade is certainly in play when discussing large-field GPPs. Outside of game theory, Dillon's expected role and matchup against a Minnesota defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in Run Defense DVOA and is allowing the fourth-most yards per carry in the league at just under 4.50, puts him in borderline "must play" territory. With only second-year man Patrick Taylor - who was only recently promoted to the active roster - currently behind him on the Packers' RB depth chart, it stands to reason that Dillon will be a three-down player for Green Bay until Jones returns.
James Conner - ARI @ SEA ($6,100)
After going completely nuclear in Week 9, James Conner fell back to earth last week against the Carolina Panthers. While some might be disappointed by his ho-hum output last week, I'm actually encouraged. I feel Week 10 represents an absolute "floor" game for Conner, as he still managed to post a decent DFS score despite being stuck in a negative game script the entire day against a very solid Panthers run defense while playing with backup QB, Colt McCoy.
I'm betting on a huge bounce back for Conner - and this Arizona offense as a whole - this week against the Seattle Seahawks, especially if Kyler Murray is back in the lineup. Conner has received a combined 40 opportunities since becoming Arizona's lead back two weeks ago and draws a matchup against a Seahawks defense that has struggled in every facet.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 11 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: Like the rest of this week's salary scale, the WR position somewhat revolves around the big DAL vs KC game (which we'll touch on), but there are also other viable paths to take (which we'll also touch on) at what is the most volatile position in NFL DFS.
Tyreek Hill - DAL @ KC ($8,200)
Make no mistake, this Dallas vs KC game will be the most popular one on the Week 11 DFS slate. While we definitely want to be contrarian where we can, we also can't simply ignore the player with perhaps the highest ceiling on the slate. Tyreek Hill can break DFS slates in any matchup, so I'm certainly eager to roster him in this elite environment. Once a deep threat only, Hill's role in this Chiefs offense has evolved to the point where he not only comes with a sky-high ceiling but also a rock-solid floor. His 101 targets this season are second to only Cooper Kupp and his massive 1,093 Air Yards are the most in the NFL. While this Dallas defense has undoubtedly been an improved unit this season, the Cowboys are still relinquishing an eye-opening 8.61 yards per target to opposing receivers, the 10th-highest mark in the NFL. The usage, game environment, and matchup make fading this new, high-volume version of Hill a scary proposition in single-entry and small-field formats.
Rashod Bateman - BAL @ CHI ($4,500)
UPDATE: Lamar Jackson has been ruled out.
Nothing wrong with saving a little salary where we can. Rashod Bateman is one of my favorite value plays on the slate at just $4.5k. The rookie out of Minnesota didn't make his first appearance in the Ravens' lineup until Week 6, but Bateman he's been impressive since getting on the field. In his four games, Lamar Jackson has looked his way a combined 28 times. Bateman's aDOT is just a shade under 10 yards and he's garnered a 21.9% share of Baltimore's Air Yards since entering the lineup. The youngster is yet to find the endzone - so there's some positive TD regression looming - but that could change this week against a Bears secondary that is allowing a massive 9.84 yards per target to opposing WRs, the most in the NFL. The Ravens' passing game is always hit-and-miss due to Lamar Jackson's otherworldly ability on the ground, but Bateman is a really intriguing salary saver if you are willing to embrace the volatility.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 11 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: All the big boys are back on the Main Slate this week, which brings the "to pay up, or not to pay up" dilemma into play at TE.
Dalton Schultz - DAL @ KC ($4,600)
We've spent a big chunk of this week's article discussing the DAL vs KC game, highlighting Dak Prescott and Tyreek Hill along the way. So, you probably expected to see Travis Kelce listed atop the TE section, I'm really intrigued by the idea of pivoting to Cowboys' TE Dalton Schultz in GPPs. Listen, I'm a proponent of "The Kelce Rule", so I definitely believe we should all grab our fair share of Kelce this week, but Schultz offers tons of leverage in large-field tournaments and allows us to get unique exposure to this very desirable game environment. His numbers have dropped as of late - which has resulted in his lowest price tag since Week 6 - but if we really dig in, we see that over the last three weeks he's had one game with Cooper Rush at QB and another that was a total blowout of the Falcons. Schultz has received five or more targets in seven of the Cowboys' nine games this season and is squaring off against a KC defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per target to the TE position.
Cole Kmet - BAL @ CHI ($3,600)
This Bears offense is one we haven't been able to target this season, but as Justin Fields has slowly shown signs of progress, so too has his TE, Cole Kmet. His role continues to grow in this Chicago offense, as he's now been on the field for an average of 83.5% of the Bears' offensive snaps over their last two games, garnering target counts of 8/6/6 over their last three. It's fair to question the upside here, but Kmet fits nicely as a bring-back in Lamar Jackson stacks and offers salary relief for those targeting the high-priced plays in DAL vs KC.
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