RADIO
We're coming off the most shocking event in the recent history of the UFC folks, so nothing that happens next weekend will make you think you just witnessed greatness in the UFC Apex. I mean, it's not that you can watch Israel Adesanya drop a belt every week, so you know what I'm saying. But this is just one more UFC Fight Night so we can't really demand that much.
Dana is at least putting on some weight here with this weekend's card bringing five fights to the main card featuring HW, LHW, and WW men that will surely bring some stunning fireworks to the table in the shape of some rock-solid (literally) knockouts. Not the flashiest of cards, but surely one good enough for us to enjoy before we embark on a two-week hiatus before watching the last three fights of 2022 next month.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 65: Lewis vs. Spivak on 11/19/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sergey Spivak, $9200 - vs. Derrick Lewis
Call it a bump in the road to challenge for the title, call it "Tom Aspinall", but the truth is that the KO-loss a little over a year ago hasn't stopped Spivak's on his way to contention for the HW belt after he only lost in Feb. 2020 prior to that. It's now two victories via KO for him in his two most-recent fights (both from March 2022 on), although the competition wasn't otherworldly.
Lewis, on the other hand, has been going down after his defeat at the hands of Ciryl Gane in the former's second fight for the title. That loss kickstarted Lewis' current 1-3 record with only one win in the past year-and-change with the former contender boasting a two-fight losing streak.
Lewis has dropped his most recent fights via second and first-round KOs. He scored 23.5 and 2.0 DKFP in those two losses and 8.0 in the title-fight loss to Gane. His lone victory since then, a first-round KO over Chris Daukaus las December, saw him reach 107 DKFP.
Spivak has done pretty much the same, going for a goose egg in his most-recent KO defeat but topping 112 DKFP in his two KO wins after that. It is fair to assume we're in for a KO-or-get-KO'd type of fight this weekend between these two, so playing anyone of the two means risky business with no clear favorite and one of them most probably eating a zero.
The record and recent results are telling us to side with Spivak but the cache and track-record speak highly of Lewis. Spivak has defeated opponents of late that ranked in a measly 51st, 56th, and 76th percentile in DKFP. Lewis has lost three of his last four fights but he did so against fighters ranked inside the 87th percentile or higher.
This is a tough one to call with confidence, but given that he's shown a slightly higher upside than Lewis, I'd side with Spivak earning the most DKFP on Saturday – of course, all of it entirely linked to him KO'ing Lewis and not the other way around.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kennedy Nzechukwu, $8800 - vs. Ion Cutelaba
Cutelaba and Kennedy have put up some Ws throughout their still-young careers but they haven't been any sort of incredible while doing it. In fact, and looking at their records since the start of 2020, they have combined for an overall 3-4-1 line.
Cutelaba is 1-2-1 since the start of 2021 and Kennedy sports a 3-2 record in that span. The former had his best days in his first few fights under the UFC banner (from late 2016 to mid-2019) while the latter is 4-3 career-wise having debuted in March 2019 with five of his fights in the past 20 months.
Although Kennedy had never shown any sort of grappling/takedown-prowess early in his career, he did so to fantastic extents the last time we watched it last July going for 5-of-7 takedowns against Karl Roberson and ultimately defeating him via KO inside the third round. He was 0-for-1 in takedowns through his first six fights in the UFC, so take that recent outing with a grain of salt.
Cutelaba has been the better grappler over the larger span of time. Actually, he's ridiculous at that part of the game. He's 1-for-1, 3-for-3, 8-for-12, and 9-of-19 in his most recent fights on the takedown count getting back to May 2021. That's a 60% success rate on massive volume, which always bodes well for fantasy contests.
None of these two projects as a clear favorite but Kennedy's high finishing rate helps his case massively here. Cutelaba's clearly past his high-strike-volume prime attempting fewer than 10 SSA/min these days and Kennedy has never been a high-volume striker but instead a high-power fighter so that KO-prowess makes me side with Nzechukwu this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, $9100 - vs. Chase Sherman
Waldo just debuted in the UFC last month so it's not that we have seen him doing it a lot in Dana's promo. In fact, his next fight takes place this Saturday on just three-weeks notice after he defeated Jared Vanderaa in his debut on the last Saturday of October.
Sherman is a much more experienced fighter, though he's been a rather putrid one. Was this the WWE instead of the UFC, you'd already know what was coming as Sherman is the perennial loser. That changed in his last fight when he, coincidentally, dropped the same Jared Vanderaa via KO in three rounds (Jul. 2022) having his second-best fight ever to the tune of 123.5 DKFP.
Waldo had to work his way toward a decision W against Vanderaa and he finished that fight with a 73-of-158 SSL but no takedowns to his name. Sherman, though KO'ing JV, was coming off four straight losses (two via decision, two via submission) prior to that W.
Truth be told, Waldo is a perfect MMA artist having a professional 8-0 record and an amateur 3-0 tally before that. The guy has yet to meet defeat, seriously. He's won all eight fights in his pro tenure with four KOs, three decisions, and even one submission. Too bad for Sherman, he got subbed in his two most recent fights before KO'ing Vanderaa (and those two defeats came in under 2:30 minutes at most).
Gotta side with the freshest Waldo here because 1) Sherman has historically sucked and one KO is not going to change that perception and 2) Waldo has been an unstoppable and unrelenting fighting machine throughout his career.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Muslim Salikhov, $8300 - vs. Andre Fialho
Very interesting affair with two men on totally opposite ends of the professional-life spectrum. Fialho is still a young under-30-years fighter with a 2-2 UFC record and all-guns-blazing mentality--thus the three KOs to one decision ratio in the promo – while Muslim is squeezing his last drops of energy having gone 5-0 before dropping his most recent UFC fight last July at 38 years of age.
Fialho sandwiched his two victories with two defeats (a decision in his debut, and a KO in his most recent outing last June) but when he won he did it big scoring 116 and 108.5 DKFP thanks to back-to-back first-round KOs. He dropped a historically-nice Miguel Baeza (78th-pctl in DKFP) and then Cameron VanCamp (putrid 13th). He landed north of 55% of his SSA both times. Fialho has yet to go for a takedown, let alone land one.
Salikhov features the same sandwich pattern, only on a much larger scale and with better overall results to his name. He lost his first and most-recent fights (both early, the first one via submission in Nov. 2017 and the latest via KO last July) but other than that he won five in a row from 2018 to 2021 including two via KO. It's been more than three years since his last KO victory, though.
Salikhov brings some takedown/grappling prowess to the table but Fialho edges him in striking volume and power. As stupid as it sounds, Fialho's four fights have taken place in this calendar year starting in January and spanning through June.
Fialho is young, bright, and active but he's also a super boom/bust ticking bomb every time he steps into the octagon. Muslim comes with a lower ceiling if we assume his KO-finish days are over, but he also boasts a much higher floor than Fialho's bust/zero floor. Depends on how many risks you want to take here, but I'd err on the safe side and go with Salikhov.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jack Della Maddalena, $9600 - vs. Danny Roberts
I don't think you can start your UFC run better than JDM has done. Two fights in a span of six months, two victories, two KO wins, against two fighters ranked inside the 53rd and 73rd pctl in DKFP per fight, both in the first round? Beat that, folks.
Roberts has not been that bad, of course, but the 4-3 record is a bit shaky, and looking at his most recent results he's just 1-1 since the end of 2019 having fought once in 2021 and one more time this year (lost to Francisco Trinaldo). Roberts showed some willingness when it came to attempting takedowns in earlier fights but he could only land one of three and eight attempts respectively in two of his last three fights for success rates of 33% and 12%.
JDM has been a massive play in his past two fights for those betting on the unknown and he should keep up his high-scoring tendencies for at least one more week before Dana starts to book him against legitimately tough opponents in 2023. Take advantage of it while it lasts, even though you'll have to pay a top price for that.
