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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 37: Smith vs. Spann on 09/18/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Two-week hiatus gone, remainder of the year packed with fight cards to go. That's insane, but that's correct. We will have events from Saturday until the end of the year, with the last one taking place on December 18th as we celebrate a fitting UFC FN 200. We back in Vegas this weekend for another Sin City card at the Apex before moving on to T-Mobile Arena later this month for UFC 266. But let's not get too ahead of ourselves and enjoy what is in play this weekend.
For starters (or actually, closers?) both Smith and Spann are facing each other at the pinnacle of the card, with the two fighters ranked in the top-11 of the Lightweight division and looking for another or their first chance at grabbing the belt respectively. Before we reach that point, though, we'll get to watch other tasty fights involving good fighters such as Cutelaba facing Devin Clark, and the delayed Lipski vs. Bohm affair. Not a bad card overall, if you ask me.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 37: Smith vs. Spann on 09/18/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ryan Spann, $7100 - vs. Anthony Smith
These two contenders are quite separated when it comes to their experience inside the Octagon. While Smith first did it all the way back in 2013, Spann was still five years away from appearing in a UFC event for the first time as he debuted just three years ago. Smith, a former title challenger, is trying to build his way back to that championship fight he dropped to Jon Jones back in 2019 via decision in a rather putrid 18-DKFP performance. Spann is still building his way through the division's bodies, and the truth is that barring a single blemish (a KO defeat in Sep. 2020) he's been incredible carrying a 5-1 record.
Smith has gotten things right of late after losing three of four fights starting with that defeat against Jones. He's currently on a two-fight winning streak, both W coming early via sub and TKO. Smith, though, isn't too good at anything and relies a lot on bonus points for finishing foes--which he does at an incredibly high rate. Spann has a higher floor, an almost-perfect record, and he's also won three of his six fights with first- and second-round KOs (x2) and subs (x1). I don't truly love any of these two, but I'd go with Spann's sustained level of fighting over the last three years rather than Smith's resurgence of late.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Devin Clark, $7200 - vs. Ion Cutelaba
Devin Clark was on the perfect rollercoaster--alternating wins and losses--record... until he screwed up and won two in a row in 2020 to then drop his latest fight of the year in November of last year. That's correct. Clark has been off every card ever since, with no fights in the past 10 months. Even then, that's arguably better than Cutelaba's track record since 2019, as he's 1-3-1 in that span after going 3-1 to kick his UFC tenure off.
Now, hear me out. Clark might look good, but the truth is that he doesn't know how not to lose early (five losses, three via submission, two via KO) while he has never won in any other way not a 15-minute fight gone to decision. That's more than concerning when it comes to a HW. Clark lands a lot of blows, and he's active taking foes down, but he just can't finish them. Cutelaba has also lost all fights via KO (x2) or Sub (x2) but at least he's rocked three of his opponents in his wins. None of these two is going to enamor me any time soon, but judging by their track records I'd bet on Clark's higher floor as the safer play here (if you feel lucky, go with Cutelaba's sky-high ceiling, but keep in mind his true boom/bust profile).
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ariane Lipski, $8200 - vs. Mandy Bohm
Mandy Bohm hasn't really been able to catch a break since the COVID-19 threw everything out the window back in 2020. She got her first Cancelled fight in May of that year, proceeded to win her next one, but then got canned from two consecutive events until finally landing a fight this weekend, her first one (finally) in the UFC. Lipski, on the other hand, is getting into her seventh UFC bout after going 0-2, then 2-2, and currently sitting at 2-4. Ariane Lipski seems to only know how to work in pairs, so she should be winning this fight and her next one too to keep up the pattern (?).
No, that's obviously a joke. What is not a joke is Lipski facing a do-or-die task this Saturday as she's gotten KO'd two times in a row and is facing a very serious breaking point that could see her exiting the UFC sooner than later if she drops another one here. Bohm has yet to lose a fight as a pro as she currently boasts a 7-0 record and already won a belt in the TKO Major League back in May 2019. Bohm can do it all, having Ws via decision, via KO, and via submission. Rookies always come with the risk of potentially struggling their first time out, but given both fighter/statss' records at this point in their careers, I gotta go with Mandy Bohm to snatch the W, debut in victory, and leave Lipski hanging from a thread.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Christos Giagos, $6600 - vs. Arman Tsarukyan
As many of the greatest to ever do it, Arman followed their path and lost his debut fight back in 2019 only to bounce back and win his next three fights in a row, the latest taking place in January of this very year--and he was absolutely dominant in all of those, attempting 100+ SS in each and going a combined 13-of-28 in takedowns including a masterful 10-of-12 in his last fight alone.
Giagos, who has fought nine times in the UFC already has righted most of his early wrongs and is a sweet 3-1 since the start of 2019. He also possesses a complete game, doing it on both striking (on slightly lower volume) and takedowns (he's 21-of-48 in his last five fights. This fight projects to be a close one, both men are as similar as they get, and Giagos has looked great since spending three years out of the Octagon from 2015 to 2018. While Tsarukyan had one of only 33 10-TD performances in the UFC his last time out and could be the chalky play here, I'm on Giagos side this weekend.
