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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Paris: Gane vs. Tuivasa on 09/03/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
We're making history this weekend, folks. Or at least, the Ultimate Fighting Championship is. The UFC is visiting France for the first time in its near-30-year history as Accor Arena, in Paris, will be the center of attention this Saturday when things get down and the first fight's horn blows announcing the start of the event. It was a grueling fight (no pun intended) between the UFC and the French authorities in order to make this possible, but it is finally happening after MMA was legalized as recently as 2020 making way for the UFC to land in France.
With this being a country debut for the UFC it was not needed to throw a title fight in it to make it appealing. What was an obvious choice for Dana's matchmaking genius was to pick the best Frenchman (and a former UFC HW champion) doing it in the promo: Ciryl Gane. Gane will face another non-American in Australia's own Tai Tuivasa in the headliner of the event. That fight will follow the one between fellow Australian Robert Whittaker and Italy's Marvin Vettori. As you see, it's going to be a heavily flavored day. And the truth is we just can't wait.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Paris: Gane vs. Tuivasa on 09/03/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tai Tuivasa, $6700 - vs. Ciryl Gane
Who in his sane mind would bet against local Gane getting his fist lifted at the end of Saturday's event? Probably me, for one. That's simplifying things too much, of course, but this is far from a chalky fight in any sense. Gane is coming off back-to-back title fights in which he got crowned HW champ defeating Derrick Lewis (one of the softest champions of late, mind you) only to lose the belt right after that losing to Francis Ngannu last January.
Tuivsasa, while still looking for his own shot at the belt, is definitely getting there and another W this weekend (that'd be his sixth straight) could very well help him make the final jump into a title-fight card. Tuivasa's run toward this weekend matchup has been absolutely ludicrous and one for the ages: five fights, five wins, five KOs, three inside the first round, and two more within two minutes into the second round. That's insane.
Gane's record was a pinpoint perfect 6-0 when he first fought for the title compared to Tuivasa's current 8-3 tally. Only, you know, Tuivasa is 5-0 in the past 24 months and that positively compares to Gane's 6-0 in the same timespan leading up to his championship fight. Gane's been a more well-rounded fighter in terms of striking volume, though that doesn't mean he's been the better fighter, mind you.
Tuivasa is the classic KO-or-bust fighter and has not fought a full 15-minute fight since June of 2019. Gane is more accustomed to those dragging bouts and might have the edge there--unless he gets molly-rocked by Tai early. The only time Gane has fought an opponent ranked into the 90th percentile or higher (Ngannou) in DKFP he went on to lose via judges' decision. Give me Tuivasa for the W with a KO come Saturday upsetting the hometown boy and former champ and getting his ticket to a title fight sealed and delivered.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marvin Vettori, $7400 - vs. Robert Whittaker
After defeating Paulo Costa the last time we watched him, Vettori went up a spot in the MW ranks sitting only behind champion Israel Adesanya and contenders Robert Whittaker and Jared Cannonier. The truth is, though, that all three of these men have already lost to the reigning champ and thus have exhausted their first-time shot at the MW belt. Considering Whittaker has already lost twice to Adesanya (when the latter was already the champion), though, we've yet to see whether the third bout will ever take place or not down the line.
One thing is clear, though, and that's the fact that barring a victory here Whittaker will wave goodbye to his chances at another meeting with the champ. After losing to Adesanya in their first meeting, Whittaker faced a trio of middling fighters (including Cannonier, yes) and won all three fights leading up to the title fight against IA last February. Whittaker has shown a much better and rounded fighting profile in the past four fights attempting at least two takedowns in each of those bouts (average of eight per fight) landing two or more in three of those four fights (average 2.5 per fight).
Vettori, on the other hand, is 5-1 since he lost to Adesanya for the first time himself (in a non-title fight, though) and he pretty much did the same as Whittaker in facing lower-level opponents to bulk his resume up a bit on his way to getting his second shot at Adesanya--now for the title. He dropped that one but bounced back with a marvelous 130-DKFP victory over Paulo Costa in which he put up a 190-of-346 SS and 1-of-5 TD line through 25 minutes of fighting time.
Whittaker has become a much better, all-around fighter of late. Vettori has always been one of those, though, with great numbers in both the striking and grappling categories. This is a very tight and hard fight to predict but I would straight rule out an early finish. With that in mind, I'd bet on Vettori over Whittaker because of their most recent outings. Again, it's a hella tough pick to make and although Whittaker comes with the 70% winning probably I don't really trust that sky-high figure. It's Vettori pulling off the upset for me.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alessio Di Chirico, $8200 - vs. Roman Kopylov
One thing is to take advantage of an event taking place in Europe to feature great European fighters, another one is to just do so because why not? This fight definitely fits the latter model more than the former. Di Chirico is a 3-6 UFC fighter with two wins via KO and one via decision in his career starting all the way back in 2016. Kopylov has yet to win in the UFC while boasting a nil-2 record with fights separated by nearly two years...
ADC defeated Joaquin Buckley in his most recent victory (Jan. 2021) via KO but he hadn't won once since late 2017. Kopylov didn't even put up respectable numbers in his two UFC outings with DKFP scores of 36 and 18.5 fantasy points respectively. I mean... If you had to bet on one of these men, you'd probably go with the Italian ADC, though it's not that his last fight was very encouraging after he got KO'd in 17 seconds by Abdul Razak Alhassan a year ago.
Avoid picking any of these two because they both suck. If you're forced into getting one into your lineup or any other endeavors, Di Chirico should be the pick exclusively because of his track record of... three victories and two KOs in nine fights? Ugh.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
John Makdessi, $7500 - vs. Nasrat Haqparast
If you're like me you've grown up watching Makdessi's career in full. This man hit the UFC circuit running in late 2010 with a couple of victories aged 25 years old and has been around for the past 12 years. No joke. The results were never incredible as John never strung more than three victories in a row, but the longevity of his career is one to be proud of.
Haqparast's isn't so extensive, but he's another experienced fighter that started doing it at 22 and barely turned 27 years old a few days ago. He's also topped at three consecutive wins and is currently on a two-fight losing streak. None of Haqparast nor Makdessi uses grappling at all, so that's one less thing to focus on when picking one of them to fill your last open slot.
Makdessi has been strong of late with a 4-1 record... only that accounts for fights taking place from 2017 on. In that same span, Haqparast has fought nine times with a 5-4 outcome. Makdessi has turned into a one-fight-per-year artist while Haqparast has been much more active. The numbers favor the former and more experienced Makdessi, though, as he's attempting and landing way more SS than his younger opponent while also posting up impressive landing rates above 50% in each of his past four bouts. It's a long shot to call this a safe pick, but Makdessi might still have it in him to get another W this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Light Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Nathaniel Wood, $7800 - vs. Charles Jourdain
Contrasting fighters, these two. Jourdain has chased exactly four takedowns through his nine-fight run in the UFC successfully landing zero of those. Wood, while not impressive at it, is a 50% proposition with a 7-of-14 on takedowns having at least one successful TD in five of his seven UFC fights.
What will define this fight in terms of the fantasy-points baseline is striking. Both men can throw strikes in bunches and boast career averages of 12.7 SSA/min (Wood) and 10.8 (Jourdain). Both men have landed at least 42% of the SSA they launched in 14 of the 16 combined/total fights they've taken part in. In other words: they can bomb strikes away and those shots land more often than not.
If only because of his more well-rounded game in terms of grappling and his three early-career (between June 2018 and March 2019) submission victories I'd side with Wood here. Jourdain has been subbed once to Wood's none on top of that.
