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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 21: Edwards vs. Muhammad on 03/13/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
As crazy as it sounds, the UFC Apex is about to cross the 20-event mark this weekend once UFC Vegas 21 takes place and is added to the history books. We need to go all the way back to May 2020 to find the first time the complex was used, when Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns were the two headlining what came to be known as UFC Vegas 1 and kickstarted a series of events that are still taking place in the middle of our pandemic times. Damn, son...
After a weekend for the ages in which we got to watch three belts put on the line and a new champ getting crowned, we're back at it this Saturday on a kinda softer schedule. That doesn't mean there won't be fireworks, though, as the UFC always provides some spicy sauce. Leon Edwards is coming back to an Octagon to face Belal Muhammad--yes, Khamzat Chimaev keeps missing affairs due to COVID--while there are other storylines involving the likes of HW contender Misha Cirkunov, über-veteran Ben Rothwell, top-10 FW Dan Ige, and a redemption-seeking Angela Hill.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 21: Edwards vs. Muhammad on 03/13/21. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Belal Muhammad, $xxxx - vs. Leon Edwards
This is definitely a tough one. The only thing not leveling the balance for these two is Edward's hiatus, which was about to reach two years since the last time he fought inside an octagon when he went against Rafael Dos Anjos all the way back in Jul. 2019. Other than that, though, Edwards is carrying a ridiculous eight-fight winning streak getting into this Saturday's main event, having won a couple of those eight early via KO and submission once each.
Muhammad is no slouch himself and has won his last four fights spanning back to April 2019. In the time Edwards has been out, Muhammad has fought--and won--three fights, one in each of the last three calendar years including 2021. Muhammad is fighting this Saturday as a "replacement" of Khamzat Chimaev, down with COVID-related problems, but he's far from a true underdog.
Both Edwards and Muhammad bring ground-game prowess to the octagon, though Muhammad is more active while it comes to attempting takedowns compared to Edwards. On the other hand, the latter is more effective at it. Belal Muhammad has the clear advantage on striking, both on volume and efficiency. Close fight, again, but with the fresher Muhammad on my win column if only for his striking/grappling prowess and 8-1 record in the past three and a half years.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Misha Cirkunov, $xxxx - vs. Ryan Spann
When you talk anything-heavyweight, you know what you're into. Bonus points, early stoppages, and a hell of a lot of knockouts. Talk about Misha Cirkunov, I guess. The LHW contender is fighting Spann this weekend, and although he's been a little bit bouncy of late (2-3 since 2017) he has been able to close the last three years (and three fights, for that matter) 2-1 without stringing two similar outcomes in a row. Will he do come Saturday, getting his second W in a row?
Ryan Spann, on the other hand, will enter the Octagon having lost his last fight half a year ago when he got KO'd by Johnny Walker in under three minutes of fighting time last September. Yikes. That being said, though, Spann was on a four-fight winning streak prior to that, spanning from his debut in 2018 to May 2020. Not bad, that is what I mean.
Both of these guys have closed the curtains early in 12 of their combined 14 fights in the UFC. It's way possible that we see another early ending to this bout come Saturday. Cirkunov has been KO'd three times already, though, all of them in the first round and after May 2017, which is kinda concerning. He also has one KO to his name coming back in 2025. Spann dropped one via KO, sure, but he has a sub, a KO, and two decisions to his name. Both of these have used takedowns through their careers, and Cirkunov has the edge there. I'd bet on him keeping up his W rather than Spann rebounding.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ben Rothwell, $xxxx - vs. Philipe Lins
We're talking about a couple of vets here, folks. Sure, Rothwell's track record laps Lins', but that only because Lins never really got into the UFC ranks until his age-35 year in 2020. Rothwell, on the other hand, has been around since 2009 when he got KO'd by Cain Velasquez. It's been a long 15-fight career for Benny so far, although his best days are clearly over. He's at a middling 4-2 in his past six after winning the four prior to that, but that happened between 2013 and Jan. 2016...
Lins, as I already mentioned, is inching closer to 36 years old and still looking for his first W in the UFC promo after eating two Ls last year in the span of a month when he lost to Andrei Arlovski in May and Tanner Boser in June. It was actually pretty ugly, truth be told. Lins lasted the full three rounds in his debut, but all he could do was landing 41-of-99 significant strikes for a putrid 20 DKFP, while he was knocked the hell out of the octagon in under-three minutes in his second bout for a total of... 3 (!!!) DKFP on the day.
Of course, Rothwell is far from his peak self, when he was handing KOs and submissions with gusto, but he's still dangerous and can get to his good fantasy points and real-life results nicely--to a certain extent, don't get it wrong. Lins might find a way to finally get that W, but so far he's not looked any good and odds are he keeps on the losing track at least for another weekend.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gavin Tucker, $xxxx - vs. Dan Ige
I like how this fight look on paper. A lot. Dan Ige and Gavin Tucker come from different outcomes in their last fights respectively (Ige lost, Tucker won) but they have been absolutely monstrous in the bouts before those ones. Starting with Ige, the man dropped his July fight to Calvin Kattar only after the judges' decision came five rounds into that fight. Ige couldn't land a takedown back then, but went for 9 of them and threw a career-high 218 SS, landing almost 40% of them. The thing is, prior to that and going back to June 2018, Ige was a ridiculous 6-0 with a couple of early stoppages to his name (1 sub, 1 KO).
That's good, but Gavin Tucker isn't far from that career-wise, and much less of late. Tucker has won three in a row going back to July 2019, and two of those three Ws arrived from Aug. 2020 on making him a fresh-and-ready fighter as they get entering Saturday's fight against Ige. Tucker is throwing strikes in bunches, lands them more than efficiently, and his takedown game is impressive, to say the least (he has a couple of submission-wins already).
Ige looked like the bread cutter leading up to his last fight and second career-KO. Tucker, on the other hand, lost one in September 2017 but came but firing and winning three consecutive himself. I like Tucker keeping it up and climbing the ranks a little more toward an eventual title shot. Starting with a W against no. 9 Dan Ige will definitely help Tuck getting there.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ashley Yoder, $xxxx - vs. Angela Hill
This is definitely not like the rest of the fights I covered above. Angela Hill and Ashley Yoder have been inside an octagon a combined 21 times between the two of them, and their merged record would amount to 8-13. The longest winning streak in any of these two fight logs is just at three, which Hill did from late 2019 to early 2020, having now two losses in a row. If the best ability is availability, though, Hill is definitely the no. 1 there with an astounding eight fights between March 2019 and September 2020.
After debuting in 2016 and staying off octagons until March 2018, Yoder has fought two times per year for three consecutive seasons. She went 1-1 in all of those past three years, which doesn't sound like the definition of a super-talented fighter, I guess... and although she will fight Saturday carrying a W from his most recent fight, she had dropped two straight prior to that.
Angela has knocked out foes as recently as in January of 2020, but it's not that she does it often. Yoder has yet to close a fight earlier, whether that is winning or losing the affair. This looks like a three-round bout waiting to happen, and in the long 15-minute run these two will use different methods to rack up points. Hill will be about striking, while Yoder will be the one trying to pin his opponent to the mat. The volume will tell you to go with Hill, but the fact that Yoder can limit Hill's upside with grappling while racking up points herself doing so leads me to believe Yoder will the better fantasy play of the two.
