RADIO
Welcome back to another edition of the DraftKings MMA Preview and DFS Picks. Last week was a crazy week of fights and it resulted in flops from a lot of the highest owned fighters, but it's important to keep following your process, and not let certain results skew your method of analysis. Fortunately, TJ Dillashaw and Joe Lauzon, among others, did come through, and put up impressive performances. I'm hoping to keep that streak going with my picks for UFC 190 this week.
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As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
- Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS – Cash Game Targets
1. Ronda Rousey (12.2k)
Ronda Rousey is a lock for cash games this week, even though she's very expensive. Her opponent, Bethe Correia, has nothing to offer Rousey that she hasn't already seen in the cage, and I think it's likely Rousey finishes this fight early. Rousey has won her previous two title fights in less than 20 seconds, and even if she decides to drag this fight out for personal vengeance, she'll still beat up Correia in the process.
When you can get an early finish on DraftKings and essentially guarantee yourself 100 points, you do that. That's the kind of performance we have come to expect from Rousey, and there's no reason to not include her in your cash game lineups this week.
2. Soa Palelei (10.6k)
It will be important, as usual, to watch the odds as Saturday gets closer, but as of now, I like Soa Palelei in all formats. He's currently a -200 favorite, which is solid for a fighter priced in his range, but more importantly, he has a "wins inside distance" prop of -150. That means Vegas thinks he's the second most likely fighter to win by finish on this entire card, and that shouldn't be ignored. His opponent, Bigfoot Silva, has been knocked out in consecutive fights and looks to be two shots away from retirement at this point.
Heavyweight fights always make me nervous because of that one-punch KO threat from either side, but I'm sticking to the odds here and targeting Palelei. His striking game is good enough that he should be able to land shots on Silva, whether it be on the feet or on the ground, and it seems pretty likely that he can finish the fight and secure those all-important bonus points on DraftKings.
MMA DFS – GPP Targets
1. Stefan Struve (10.8k)
At 7 feet tall, with an 84 inch reach, Stefan Struve has a length advantage against pretty much any other fighter. Unfortunately, he's fought some guys recently who were able to get inside that range and land big shots, and Struve doesn't have a good enough chin to hold up in those scenarios.
This week, Struve gets a guy in Big Nog who isn't known as a powerful or highly technical striker, and that should be a relief for any and all of his fans. Big Nog has only won 3/43 professional fights by TKO, and it seems unlikely that he'd be able to secure one in this scenario, especially against a guy with a reach advantage like Struve has.
Both Big Nog and Struve have excellent BJJ, but I don't see that playing too big of a role in this fight. Vegas loves this match to end in a finish, and I believe Struve will come out the victor. He makes a great GPP target especially, and I think he's as likely a fighter to get a first-round finish as anyone, besides Rousey.
2. Guido Cannetti (8.5k)
Guido Cannetti is not expected to win against Hugo Viana Saturday, but I think he makes for an interesting GPP play at his low price. Cannetti is only 6-2 as a professional, but he's finished all six fights (3 TKO, 3 submission). He's fighting an opponent who's known for his unaggressive style.
Viana likes to sit in a wide stance and leap with his right hand, hoping to land a big shot. He's been pretty successful with that, and he has a good chance to finish Cannetti if he lands the punches. Fortunately, Cannetti is a high volume kick boxer, which means he should be the aggressor in this fight. I think that IF he can avoid those power shots from Vianna, Cannetti has a shot at winning by decision or possibly by TKO based on his volume striking.
MMA DFS – Fighters to Avoid
1. Claudia Gadelha (11.2k)
The main reason I'm recommending the fade on Claudia Gadelha is because she's pricey. She's a significant favorite over Jessica Aguilar, but Aguilar was widely considered the best 115 fighter in the world a short time ago. Gadelha is also primarily a grappler, and I don't think she'll score as high if she can't get the finish. There are too many risks for me here and I'd rather pay up to Rousey, or down to a mid-priced fighter.
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley. Good luck RotoBallers, and I hope you enjoy!
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