RADIO
With four weeks of the NFL season in the books, we now have a quarter of a season worth of data to look at. There are some really bad defenses standing out from the pack and there are some defenses who are best avoided. The same goes for offenses as we have some great ones and some real clunkers. This week the Kansas City Chiefs offense is kind of off the table due to their matchup with the superb Jacksonville Jaguars defense. However, once again the Atlanta Falcons look set to provide us with another exciting, points-filled game as they go up against the equally inept defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Below are my DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks for Week 5.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, early week performances, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great value plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 4.
Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 5 Picks
Ben Roethlisberger - PIT vs ATL (DK $6,900)
Once again I am picking against the Atlanta Falcons defense here. The Falcons defense is the fourth worst team in the league against quarterbacks when it comes to fantasy points. The only reason they are not first is that they faced Nick Foles in Week 1 with their defense mostly intact. This game has the potential to be another shootout with the over/under set at 57, and that might even be too low for what I expect. The Steelers defense has struggled all year and their offense is going to need to go for the throat against the equally struggling Falcons defense. Big Ben struggled at home last week but the Ravens defense is a solid unit, so that is not a huge surprise. This week I think he bounces back with a big 30-point game against a defense that gave up nearly 30-fantasy points to Andy Dalton at home in Week 4.
Derek Carr - OAK @ LAC (DK $5,200)
I was impressed with Derek Carr last week. He had his struggles but ultimately he had a very good game against a good Cleveland Browns defense. This week he faces a Chargers team who rank in the top-10 for most fantasy points surrendered to a quarterback. This game is another that I expect to be a shootout and Vegas agrees, with the over/under at 53. Again I even think that is a little on the low side. The Chargers offense has put up some serious points this year and I can see Carr having to throw 50 times once again in Week 5. Playing on the road for this matchup is not an issue as their will likely be as many Raiders fans in the stands as there will be Chargers fans.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 5 Picks
James Conner - PIT vs. ATL (DK $7,500)
The stats for the Falcons defense against running backs are beginning to add up. They consistently surrender the most receptions to running backs, and they have had a hard time stopping them this season without Deion Jones. Since his Week 1 breakout performance Conner has struggled massively but this week I think he reverses that trend. The Steelers need to keep Conner involved, as that is when their offense looks best. He is averaging six targets per game this year and it could even be more in Week 5. I would expect Conner to follow what Alvin Kamara and Giovani Bernard did against this defense and have a big week, returning at least 20 points and perhaps closer to 30.
T.J. Yeldon - JAX @ KC (DK $5,600)
Leonard Fournette is already ruled out so if Yeldon can get past his ankle niggle then he will be the number one for Jacksonville this week. The Chiefs are second worst in the league against running backs, surrendering four points per game more than the third worst team. If the Jaguars are going to win this game on the road they have to keep their defense fresh. To do that they have to run the ball. The Broncos running backs seemed to be running free on almost every play against the Chiefs defense in Week 4. If active, Yeldon should see a ton of carries and a lot of production in this game.
If Yeldon is not active then Corey Grant at $3,700 is well worth a look in this game. The damage the Broncos did with the run game was huge on Monday night and whoever carries the ball for the Jaguars will likely do the same.
Aaron Jones - GB @ DET (DK $4,300)
Jones is averaging over six yards per rush in his two games since returning from suspension. The young running back had 65 yards and a touchdown last week on 11 rushing attempts. Volume has been an issue the last two weeks, but with Jamaal Williams ineffective once again against Buffalo I expect to see Jones' carries rise again in Week 5. He is facing the Detroit Lions who rank third-worst against running backs, surrendering on average 30-fantasy points a week. The Packers will look to control the clock and keep Matt Stafford and his offense off the field. The Lions always seem to start slowly so do not be surprised if the Packers get the lead early and then use Jones and the running game to grind the clock. A big 20-point game is there for the taking for Jones in Week 5.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 5 Picks
Mohamed Sanu - ATL @ PIT (DK $4,000)
It is hard to go away from Calvin Ridley right now because he has been so hot. However, Sanu is actually still second in this team in targets and appears to be the forgotten man among defenses. Sanu broke out last week with a season high in targets (9), catches (6) and yards (111). With Julio Jones and Ridley now drawing most of the coverage Sanu should be open a lot. The ceiling is higher on the other two but the price for Sanu is significantly less this week. I could make a case for stacking Sanu and Ridley ($5.800) this week against the leaky Steelers defense.
Alshon Jeffery - PHI vs. MIN (DK $6,200)
Last week Jeffery showed us just what we were missing in his absence. In Week 4 Jeffery was third in targets with nine, catching eight of them for 105 yards and a touchdown. I do not expect him to surpass Zach Ertz as the most targeted player in the Eagles offense, but I do think he climbs above the often inconsistent Nelson Agholor. Jeffrey has a big pedigree and if this Eagles offense is to get rolling they are going to need Jeffery to play a big role facing a defense who was ripped to pieces by the Rams receiving core in Week 4.
James Washington - PIT vs. ATL (DK $3,500)
This one is a little bit off the beaten path but I think this could be the week Washington breaks out. The Falcons gave up a big bomb to Bengals third receiver John Ross last week and their defense is susceptible to the big play. I expect the Falcons to focus a lot of attention on both Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster, leaving Washington as the receiver often in one-on-one situations. Washington's day is likely going to be big-play dependent but in what should be a high scoring game, against a bad defense and at such a bargain basement price he could be a huge differentiator in GPP play.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 5 Picks
Austin Hooper - ATL @ PIT (DK $3,000)
I really did not want to come back to Hooper again this week but the numbers do not lie. The Steelers surrender the second most fantasy points to tight ends and all of the rest of the top-10 are either on bye or facing really bad tight ends. Therefore, I have gone for the tight that has talent and a good matchup. Hooper will always get targets and he was Ryan's main target in the red zone in the first two weeks. If the Steelers make a more concerted effort to shut down Jones and Ridley then Hooper could be open a lot. For me, this is the play if I need to save money but if cash is not a problem then it is always hard to look beyond Zach Ertz.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 5 Picks
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (DK $3,800)
The fact that the Rams struggled a little with the Vikings offensive line gives me pause. However, this Seahawks offensive line is scarily bad. The likes of Suh, Donald, and Brockers are going to be in Russell Wilson's face all day long. Even on the road where Wilson will be able to use a snap count, I like the Rams defense. I think the Rams have multiple sacks and at least one turnover in this game.
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos (DK $2,600)
The Broncos offense looks really disjointed right now and they should have done better at home against that Kansas City Chiefs defense. In addition, while they looked good running the ball it felt like Case Keenum was constantly under pressure to get rid of the ball. Now heading into New York I like the potential of the Jets defense to cause havoc. The Jets defense has had a strong start to the season, forcing 10 turnovers and sacking the quarterback 10 times. My only concern here is that the Jets offense is so ineffective that the defense tires late in the game and gives up a chunk of points and yards in the fourth quarter.
