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We have a 5-game slate to attack. There is one "ace" on this slate with Buehler and then a lot of questionable options on the mound. With so many questions on the mound, there will be some great spots to attack bats on the slate as well. As we saw on Wednesday, there was offense all over the league, and it has been a tendency over the early season when we do not have a group of aces on the mound. Lastly, value is not as obvious just yet; pay attention to lineups as some always open up and allow for some mega lineups. At the same time, with only one ace, money should not be a major concern tonight. If you want the whole list and some of the more obvious plays you will find in other sites' articles, listen to MLB DFS Quick Hits for the full slate rundown in less than 30 minutes.
When looking at the slate, the first questions are to Buehler or not to Buehler, and if you use Buehler, then how much Buehler is too much Buehler. Finding the right SP2 will be interesting with Cobb, Nick Pivetta, and some other punt options. Again, with so few top-end pitchers, there will be bats for days. Weather should not be a major issue outside of some nice hitting conditions in a few ballparks. Expect a lot of offense tonight, and making leverage stacks against some chalk is a solid strategy tonight.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/22/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter @bdentrek.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Walker Buehler - P, LAD vs SD ($10,000)
Buehler is clearly the top pitcher on the slate and brings the best floor to tonight's action but has yet to show a ceiling this season. He has thrown six innings in all three starts, throwing no more than 93 pitches. As expected, the Dodgers are playing it safe with their future Cy Young arm. He has allowed no more than two runs in any of those starts, either. The problem is he is not scoring a ton of points (15.1/21.9/12.7), and a major factor is the fact Buehler has only struck out four batters in each start. If looking at his SwStr% of 9.9%, 79.9% contact%, and 90.9% Z-contact% do not leave you feeling all warm and fuzzy, let alone his 10.5% barrel rate and 49.1% hard-hit rate. Yes, concerning, but Buehler has been a well-documented slow start, and when looking at a start-by-start angle, he has improved greatly. In his last start versus these same Padres, Buehler's SwStr% rose to an outstanding 17.1%, contact% dropped to 67.3%, Z-contact% dropped to 81.8%, and his hard-hit rate dropped to 40%. There are some concerns, but the improvements are promising. The other plus is the pitching is dreadful on this slate, and Buehler brings one of the top ceilings to go with one of the best floors, and raw points will be key tonight.
Alex Cobb - P, LAA at HOU ($7,700)
Oh no, Cobb is doing it again. He is sucking us back into having some fantasy interest. Like the recent transformation teammate Dylan Bundy made when he left the Orioles and joined the Angels, Cobb changed his pitch mix, leading to some fantasy goodness. In his first two starts this season, Cobb has thrown 5.2-6 innings in each start, allowing three runs in each start but has struck out seven and ten in those two starts. I preach strikeouts when targeting DK pitchers, and the strikeout upside Cobb has brought allowed for 15.5 and 27.8 DK points to start the season. This improvement is the increase of split-finger usage from 35.2% to 45.4% and a correlating decrease in sinker usage. The splitty can be a finicky pitch, but when Cobb has it working, it is filthy. The Astros are almost back to full health, so not always the easiest of matchups. Even with that concern, Cobb is high on my list with the K upside on a slate without many decent pitching options.
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Buster Posey - C, SF vs Daniel Castano ($3,900)
Yep, it is MVPosey season, folks, so jump on board before the pricetag leaves the atmosphere. Posey took 2020 off, and that break seems to have rejuvenated the former MVP. He has hit safely in 10 of 12 games to start the season, good for a .310 average, .310 ISO, and 168 wRC+. It is early on the season, but Posey seems to be locked in with career-highs in barrel rate of 11.8%, xwOBAcon .440, and a hard-hit rate of 44.1%. Posey has usually hit LHP well in his career, and early in 2021, that is still the same, hitting .353 with a 66.7% HR/FB, .353 ISO, and 196 wRC+. He has a great matchup versus Castano tonight, and I look forward to the Giant's late-night hammer winning us some money with Posey being a part of those stacks.
Other Options: Wilson Contreras $4,600 (CHC vs NYM)
Shohei Ohtani - 1B, LAA at Christian Javier ($5,100)
SWOLE-Hei Ohtani has been crushing it this season. Ohtani has been doing it all to start the season, hitting .310 with ten XBH (five home runs), a 379 ISO, and even two stolen bases. The ball is flying off his bat with a maxEV of 119 mph, a 27.5% barrel rate, and a 52.5% hard-hit rate. Those are just insane numbers for a player that also pitches at a high level for the Angels. He faces the RHP Javier tonight, and Ohtani has been making sashimi of righties this season with a .341 average, .366 ISO, and 206 wRC+. Last year Javier allowed a .468 SLG and 2.1 HR/9 versus LHH, so I look for Ohtani, Jerad Walsh, and others to have a nice night tonight.
Other Options: Wilmer Flores $3,100 (SF vs MIA)
Evan Longoria- 3B, SF vs Daniel Castano ($4,400)
Yep, I like the Giants a lot tonight, and no, this is not due to my lifelong fandom of the Orange and Black. Longoria appears to have found the Fountain of Youth to start the season. He is hitting .291 with four home runs, walking 11.3% of the time, but that's not the whole story. Longo's quality of contact has been insane with a 19.5% barrel rate and 68.3% hard-hit rate. Much of that damage has been versus LHP wherein 22 plate appearances he is hitting .500 with a .813 ISO and 376 wRC+. Dare I say MASHING LHP!!!! The success versus LHP is not just this season; he has made this most of his career. In 2020 Longo hit .308 with a .212 ISO and a 129 wRC+ versus LHP. Longo will be hitting in the middle of the Giants order, locked into stacks, and is also cash game viable tonight versus Castano.
Javier Baez - SS, CHC vs. Joey Lucchesi ($4,600)
Sure Baez is hitting .203 while striking out 44.9% of the time. Not great, but from a fantasy perspective, he has been crushing it this season. Baez has five home runs and five steals on the season while driving in 16. Over the last five games, he has been a DK scoring machine with totals of 24-0-15-18-11. Tonight he gets another lefty to attack in Lucchesi. He has hit lefties well in his career. Just look at his 2016-19 numbers where he hit over .300 each season, with an ISO of .266 or higher in three of those seasons and a wRC+ of at least 123 each season. He has started 2021, hitting .250, compared to his .205 overall average, with a .375 ISO and 144 wRC+. These early numbers versus LHP, outside of the batting average, resemble his previous success. The Cubs will be popular on this short slate, especially after last night. Do not let that scare you since Baez will be in the middle of the order, and Cubs should rake, be different elsewhere.
Jazz Chisholm - 2B/SS, MIA at Aaron Sanchez ($3,900)
I guess I will have to continue to write up Jazz as long as DK does not price him appropriately. After being removed Tuesday in the 4th innings apart of a double switch (DARN YOU MATTINGLY), Chisholm was leading off for the Marlins on Wednesday. If we get Chisholm leading off, his fantasy value will rise even more. The hard-hit skills are off the chart; 48.4% HH and 25.8% barrel rate are just crazy. He is also adding speed to all the power, fantasy goodness. Tonight he will hopefully lead off versus Sanchez, who has been pitching to a lot of contact this season. LHH has hit Sanchez well in the past, and so far this season, they are hitting .318 with a .455 SLG. Chisholm should be in your cash game lineups and a part of super sneaky Marlins stacks.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Mitch Haniger- OF, SEA at Nick Pivetta ($4,100)
It is so nice having Haniger back in our fantasy lives. The Mariners' lead-off hitter appears to be healthy, and it has shown at the plate. He is hitting .310 on the season with a .260 ISO and 154 wRC+. The overall stats have correlated with his quality of contact of 12.3% barrel rate and 43.9% hard-hit rate. Over his last 10 games, he is really feeling it, hitting .341 with five XBH and a 168 wRC+. His 15.6% barrel rate and 46.9% hard-hit rate have been outstanding over that stretch as well and have led to averaging nearly 11 DK points per game over that stretch. He will face Pivetta tonight, who has shown some reverse splits. To be honest, he has been hit by everyone in the past, with RHH having some nice success. That has carried over in Pivetta's first starts in 2021 as he has allowed RHH to hit .333 with a .600 SLG and .439 wOBA. Haniger and the Mariners will go overlooked tonight and could be a nice leverage stack.
Alex Verdugo - OF, BOS vs. Justin Dunn ($4,400)
Verdugo is a boring player when it comes to many that play fantasy baseball. I appreciate those players as that means more Verdugo for me. On the season, he has hit second-most games for a Red Sox offense that has been one of the hottest in baseball recently. He is hitting .288 with a .212 ISO and 129 wRC+. He has eight XBH, has driven in 13 runs, and most impressively has scored 14 runs. Verdugo is doing it all and finds his way into so many successful Red Sox stacks at lower ownership than he should be. Verdugo has been cash viable daily; that does not change tonight and should be a part of popular Red Sox stacks as well.
Trent Grisham - OF, SD at Walker Buehler ($5,400)
Grisham will go extremely low-owned tonight as Buehler should be heavily rostered, and Grisham brings a hefty price tag into the slate. We have already discussed Buehler's hard contact he is allowing this season, making Padres sneaky tonight, but let's talk about how good Grisham has been since he has returned from the IL. Grisham missed the start of the season but has now played in 11 games and is hitting .300 with a .250 ISO and 162 wRC+. He has hit three home runs and even stole three bases which was a concern with his hamstring injury. Grisham is walking almost 15% of the time, setting the table for the Padres' mashers, but he is also barreling the ball 10% of the time with a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Grisham brings power and speed while setting the table. He makes for intriguing cash gameplay but definitely in the mix for tournaments against the heavily rostered Bueler.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Chicago Cubs (Joey Lucchesi, LHP)
- San Francisco Giants (Daniel Castano, LHP)
- Los Angeles Angels (Christian Javier, RHP)
- Sneaky Stack- Seattle Mariners (Nick Pivetta, RHP)
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