RADIO
The NASCAR Cup series heads to Bristol for the first short track event since action resumed. It is one of three short tracks on the circuit. For those newer to NASCAR, short tracks are less then one mile in length, and the term itself refers more to the physical layout of the track than the actual length of the race. We are going to see cars run for 500 laps in an event that has been likened to racing inside of a super-sized cereal bowl.
Passing and earning place differential points should prove to be tougher than on some of the courses the Cup series has ran on so far this season. The better drivers who start towards the front of the pack can be expected to lead the most laps. If you are searching for place differential drivers with lots of upside, they must be carefully targeted. I will help you find those drivers in this article, which you should pair up along with our Premium NASCAR Tools - Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Premium Rankings - before setting your DFS lineups.
In the last race at Darlington, DraftKings prices were set with projected prime PD gainers at the top of the ladder. Because the random qualifying draw for the Bristol race was on Saturday, DraftKings reverted to past pricing models for this week. It was not possible to set the best PD types among the top drivers when prices were released.
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In our new Premium Slack Chat for all Premium subscribers, I field many pre-race questions from newer and experienced players. Among those we welcome warming up to DFS NASCAR, two items seem to come up often. One is outlooks on Jimmie Johnson, and another is what “punt” driver is best to round out lineups. These two topics also come up in other DFS NASCAR conversations prior to the races.
One the subject of Johnson, many newer DFS NASCAR players know him well even if they have never been a big fan of the sport before. He’s the one driver everyone knows, a seven-time Cup champ. On Thursday he also made a lot of sense to roster when you consider he started 40th. The PD potential was too great, even as the highest priced driver on DraftKings. The tag was based on PD, though, not on his status as the sport’s biggest star.
The reality nowadays is that Johnson is no longer a top DFS choice. He’s no longer performing at a superstar level, and the chances of him winning a race are much more remote than they used to be. His last victory came in the 13th event of the 2017 season. When building a DFS lineup, he should be treated as a complementary piece, not as one of your preferred targets.
As a NASCAR fan, I would very much like to see Johnson end his winless drought and contend for another Cup title. He is a classy signature icon for NASCAR and it would be a fitting finish to one of the greatest careers in sports to see him contend for an unprecedented eighth championship. But as we well know, we can never set lineups based on emotion in any fantasy sport.
Johnson has one official Top 5 finish and an unofficial one in eight races so far this season. He seems to be performing better than last year, when he had only three Top 5 showings. He starts 24th at Bristol and is a quality choice for PD. He is even more appealing on FanDuel at $10,000. There is good PD promise and he should finish in the Top 10. Johnson has an Average Finish of 13.8 at short tracks over the past two seasons and has placed in the Top 10 in three of his last four Bristol starts. You should have a few Johnson shares this week in multiple lineups, but he is not an essential pick.
Don’t Prowl for Punts
In other DFS sports, a punt play is usually targeted as a minimum salaried option who can hopefully provide a decent line to support the rest of the lineup. In DFS NASCAR, you should not be focused on minimum salary drivers at all. They often start near the back of the pack and don’t move up much. There is little potential for a respectable finish and PD production. If they start higher, the minimum salary drivers will usually drop in the order quickly.
Sure, some of these types can occasionally surprise, at wreck-filled tracks such as Daytona or Talladega. But as a general rule, you should steer clear of drivers below $5,500 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel. If there are ever exceptions to these rules we will surely point them out.
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Bristol Buzz
Kyle Busch is the highest priced driver on both sites ($12,500 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel) but is well worth it when you consider he has won two of the last four Bristol races with a high Driver Rating of 108.7 at the site during that span, according to driveraverages.com. Kyle Busch is an eight-time winner at Bristol with an all-time series best DR of 101.8 among active drivers. He has an AF of 5.1 with four wins over the last two years on short tracks and we have not seen his best performance since the Cup series returned.
Denny Hamlin ($11,600 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel) won the most recent Bristol race and has an AF of seventh on short tracks over the past two years, a mark only bettered by Kyle Busch. Joey Logano ($10,700 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel) has an AF of 8.1 with a win on short tracks over the past two seasons. Both of those drivers are a bit more appealing on FanDuel.
Clint Bowyer ($9,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) starts 23rd and has an AF of seventh at Bristol in his last four races there and an AF of 10.2 with a win on short tracks over the past two seasons. Kurt Busch ($8,300 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) is a six-time Bristol winner with an AF of 8.5 and a victory in the past four races at the site. Matt Kenseth ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) is running in the Kyle Larson ride that had an AF of 7.25 in the last four Bristol races. He has the second-best all-time DR at the site (100.6).
Ryan Newman ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) is a solid play starting from 17th. He has an AF of 10.5 in his last four Bristol races. His overall AF of 14.7 is sixth-best all-time. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) starts ninth and may not be widely owned. He does have an AF of 14.2 in his last four Bristol starts and could finish right around his starting position. Bubba Wallace ($7,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) and Christopher Bell ($7,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) are chalky plays starting from 36th and 35th, respectively. Wallace finished 14th in the most recent Bristol race. On DraftKings, there are several quality options below $8,000 that can help you build optimum lineups for Sunday.
Austin Dillon ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) is a decent choice, as he has three Top 15 finishes in his last four Bristol starts. Ty Dillon ($6,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) starts 29th and has finished in the Top 21 in his past three Bristol races.
Other Choices to Consider:
- Chase Elliott ($11,300 DraftKings , $13,000 FanDuel)
- Erik Jones ($7,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel)
- John Hunter Nemechek ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
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