January 30, 2016

Brett Appley analyzes Daily Fantasy MMA lineup picks and sleepers for DraftKings DFS for UFC Fight Night - Johnson vs. Bader.

Welcome back to another UFC breakdown, and this one has some big boys on it. It should be a very interesting card because while there are a fight or two that have obvious finishing power, the card as a whole is tough to analyze. I expect a ton of different lineups out there.

As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:

• Cash Game: These fighters are great targets in 50/50 or H2H contests, where 50 percent of the field wins money.
• GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
• Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.

MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets

Anthony Johnson (10.9k)

The first fighter I'm locking in my lineups this weekend is Anthony "Rumble" Johnson. For his combination of floor and upside, Johnson is simply the top target on the night in all formats.

Johnson is an athletic freak and one of the most powerful strikers on the planet, and he's going to look for the knockout against Ryan Bader. I think it's likely he can get the job done, but if not, he should still be able  to put up a solid score.

Tarec Saffiedine (10.6k)

He hasn't fought since October 2014, but Tarec Saffiedine is in a great spot against Jake Ellenberger in his return.

Saffiedine strikes at one of the highest outputs on the card, and his takedown defense is strong enough to keep the fight standing. I think he has a very safe floor, and if you factor in Ellenberger's weak chin and declining career, a potential knockout isn't out of the question.

Dustin Ortiz (10.3k)

I wanted to write up a third option this week because lineup construction is quite difficult, and I think there are many different routes to take.

Dustin Ortiz is a very well-rounded fighter and he's fighting a submission-grappling oriented fighter in Wilson Reis, which means he'll need to keep the fight standing to earn the victory. He's really only been taken down by the best wrestlers in this division, and I don't think Reis in that class.

Additionally, he's shown improvement on his boxing, and I think he'll find ease in out-striking the Brazilian. I don't love Ortiz for tournaments because he's unlikely to get a quick finish, but I think he has a solid floor and a good matchup, and he's worth consideration in cash games.

MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets

Randy Brown (10.5k)

My favorite GPP play on the night is Randy "Rude Boy" Brown at 10.5k, and I'll have heavy exposure to him. He's making his UFC debut, but he's a solid striker in a favorable matchup, and his upside is elite.

Brown is facing a willing striker and defensively limited fighter in Matt Dwyer, so he should have ample opportunity to get the job done. The Vegas odds have shifted toward Dwyer, but that doesn't negate Brown's upside.

Josh Barnett (10.1k)

When I think upside, I think Heavyweight MMA and this fight between Ben Rothwell and Josh Barnett is no different.

It's a risky and competitive fight, but it's more than likely it ends before the final bell. Barnett has the much stronger grappling and submission game, and he's capable of locking in a quick finish. For the price, he's a fantastic tournament target.

MMA DFS for DraftKings – Fighters to Avoid

Sage Northcutt (11k)

Sage Northcutt has two trains following him- the hype train and the hater train. I think it's likely that he loses during 2016 because he's still a very green fighter, but I do think he's in a favorable spot to beat Barberena on short notice.

My beef is with his price.  He's not a knockout artist like most assume, and Barberena is a very durable fighter. I actually think Northcutt will rely on his wrestling to win this fight, and I'm concerned he won't get an early finish. For that reason, I think he's worth fading this weekend.

MMA & UFC Live Chat DFS Advice

[iflychat_embed id="c-63" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]