RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers, it's exciting to be in the midst of a big MMA run starting this week with Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone against Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira. Or, as the UFC labeled it, Cowboy vs. Cowboy.
It's not the most exciting card on first glance, or second glance, but there is money to be made on DraftKings and that's why I'm here to help.
As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
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- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets
Donald Cerrone (10.6k)
Donald Cerrone is easily my top option on the night against Alex Oliveira, in the battle to keep the "Cowboy" nickname. That second part isn't exactly true, but I'm all over Cerrone in cash games and tournaments this weekend.
Even though he's coming off a loss and moving up to 170 lbs., I think 10.6k is way too cheap for Cerrone. He has a huge experience advantage over Oliveira and in a five round fight that will play a big role. From a technical standpoint, I think Cerrone is better on the feet and on the ground, with his biggest advantage coming on the mat, believe it or not.
I don't think Oliveira has the tools to finish Cerrone, which means Cowboy has a floor of 40+ points in a loss. But I think he gets the job done, and it could very well be before the final bell. Anchor your cash games with Cerrone this weekend and don't look back.
Derek Brunson (11.1k)
There aren't many locks on this card, but I think Derek Brunson is the most likely to earn a win, and it shows in his price. He's been relatively dominant during his last six fights, and he seems to be improving every time out.
More importantly, his opponent Roan Carneiro doesn't really have the style to challenge Brunson. Carneiro is a BJJ specialist, so he'll need to get the fight to the ground and work chokes from top position. That just seems like an unlikely proposition to me, as Brunson's wrestling is more than solid and his athleticism is an added bonus.
Brunson will also have the advantage on the feet - a big one I think. If he's out-striking Carneiro early, it's only a matter of time until Brunson lands something hard. Even in a decision, I expect Brunson to score a lot of significant strikes and put up a reasonable score.
He has first round knockout upside, but he's a safe play for a win. I think he's worth paying up for.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets
Anthony Smith (10.2k)
Anthony Smith is making his UFC debut (he actually fought for the UFC once in 2013 but that was a long time ago) against Leonardo Leleco (also making his REAL UFC debut), and I think this fight is intriguing for GPP purposes.
Smith is coming off a TKO victory against UFC veteran Josh Neer, and he's finished six of his last seven victories. Leleco is a good grappler, but he mostly chooses to strike wildly, which can be effective for him. I think Smith's technical striking should be enough to earn the advantage.
I suspect that because each fighter isn't well known, the ownership on this fight as a whole will be small, which only adds to my interest. There's a lot of risk, of course, but Smith is only 10.2k, and you'll need some value on this. I think Smith is definitely worth a look in tournaments, and he may be the sneaky play that puts your lineup toward the top.
Daniel Sarafian (10.4k)
This is another risky fight for the purposes of predicting a winner, but I think Daniel Sarafian and Oluwale Bamgbose have plenty of tournament upside.
Sarafian isn't the greatest fighter in the world, and he's shown enough holes in his game to prove he's a risk, but I think he has a clear advantage over Bamgbose on the ground. Therefore I think there's a good chance he can take advantage of it. Bamgbose is an interesting prospect with talent, but he's still so green and lacks technique.
It could only take one bullrush from Sarafian into the clinch to force Bamgbose to the ground, and I don't think Sarafian will let him off the hook there. Even though there aren't a ton of fights that stand out, I think this one has a great chance to finish early.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – Fighters to Avoid
Lauren Murphy (10.9k)
I've been successful with my analysis on which fighters to avoid lately, and I'm happy I listed Sage Northcutt in that category two weeks ago. This week, I do like many of the fighters at the top, but the one I'm not even considering paying for is Lauren Murphy.
She's put up good fights against Liz Carmouche and Sarah McMann, but 10.9k is really expensive, and Cody Garbrandt and Derek Brunson are sitting only a few hundred dollars above her.
Vegas tagged this fight with a prop of -260 to last longer than 2.5 rounds, which is a really high prop. If this fight goes to a decision, I don't expect Murphy to put up more than 60-70 points, and that simply won't be enough to pay off the price. I like her to win, but the upside is too small here to warrant exposure.
