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Welcome back RotoBallers, and Happy New Year!
Aren't we lucky that the UFC has put on such a great card so early into 2016?!?
As usual, I’ve broken down my DraftKings MMA picks into thee sections: Cash game targets, GPP targets and fighters to avoid. I’ll explain what each category signifies below:
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- GPP: These fighters are great targets in GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools) or tournaments, which require riskier selection in order to win first place.
- Avoid: These are fighters who I will be staying away from.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – Cash Game Targets
1. Carlos Condit (9.6k)
Priced as the underdog, Carlos Condit's Vegas line has risen to a dead even -110 along with his counterpart Robbie Lawler, but I think Condit is the superior play this weekend in both cash games and GPPs.
We know Lawler is tough and a solid striker, but so is Condit, and he's really only lost fights in the UFC where he was forced to defend takedowns and fight off his back. I'm not expecting Lawler to attempt any takedowns in this fight which means it should be a five-round stand-up battle.
I think Condit is the more versatile striker and he fights at a higher pace, and although I like Lawler in cash games as well, I expect Condit to land more strikes and probably take a decision victory. He also has the higher upside, according to Vegas, as he's +195 to win inside the distance. Lock him into your cash games this weekend.
2. Kyle Noke (8.5k)
This is a situation that was forced upon us by injury and it's one we should be taking advantage of in cash games. Kyle Noke was originally slated to fight Kelvin Gastelum and Noke was the biggest underdog on the card, so he was rightfully priced at 8.5k. After DraftKings released the salary, Gastelum dropped out due to injury and was replaced by a newcomer in Alex Morono.
Now, Noke is the second highest favorite on the card at -305, but he's still priced as one of the cheapest. When you're trying to lock in safety in your cash games, and you have to take multiple fighters priced below 10k, one of them should be Noke.
MMA DFS for DraftKings – GPP Targets
1. Michael McDonald (11k)
Michael McDonald is the most expensive fighter on DraftKings this weekend but he's extremely affordable due to the massive value, and I think he's worth targeting.
Although McDonald is coming off a two year layoff, he's only 24-years-old and three fights removed from a title bout, and he's clearly the superior fighter in this match against Masanori Kanehara.
Especially on the feet, McDonald is at a big advantage and I think he'll want to keep it there. Kanehara is a good ground fighter but he's not as strong on the feet, and if he's left striking with McDonald, I don't think it will end well for him.
Vegas marked McDonald with a wins inside distance prop of -135 and with a fight card that's full of potential finishes, I think McDonald is a great tournament target.
2. Sheldon Westcott (10.2k)
Sometimes the fighters I list as tournament targets can also be applicable for cash games, like McDonald, but Sheldon Westcott is a fighter I want nothing to do with in cash games. He is, however, a great tournament target.
What makes him great for the tournament format is that if he wins, it's very likely an early finish, and that's a recipe for success on DraftKings. Westcott is an ultra-aggressive wrestle-grappler and he does everything in his power to get the fight to the ground immediately. If he can't get it done, he'll continue to try until he gasses out and loses.
He's fighting a guy by the name of Edgar Garcia who's looked less than spectacular in his UFC career. I know that Garcia has decent wrestling chops, but I'm not sure he can compete with Westcott's continued aggression. I think it's possible that Westcott gets him to the ground early and sinks in a submission and for that reason, I think he's worth targeting in GPPs.
MMA DFS for DrafKings – Fighters to Avoid
1. Andrei Arlovski (8.9k)
Normally I try to list a high-priced fighter who I don't think is worth it but this week, I'm dropping down the underdog range to pick on Andrei Arlovski, who's taking on Stipe Miocic.
I actually think Arlovski will be popular, which is one of the reasons I'm shying away from him. He's got massive power, and if he wins this fight, it will probably be by knockout. But I really don't like his chances of that happening and that's why I'm off him. Miocic is a very strong fighter who strikes at a higher pace than Arlovski, and if the fight stays standing, I think Miocic will outstrike him.
And Miocic also has the capability to get the fight to the ground, which he'll probably try, and even if he doesn't succeed immediately, it will do enough to stall Arlovski's offense. I think there are better underdogs to target on this card and ones with a more reasonable chance of winning and finishing.
Hope you enjoy RotoBallers! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BrettAppley and @DailyFanMMA.
