RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Bryson DeChambeau captured his sixth career PGA Tour title at the Rocket Mortgage Classic - this time coming from three shots back on Sunday to eclipse overnight leader Matthew Wolff. DeChambeau had been trending towards this result over his previous six events, posting six finishes within the top-eight, and it was beginning to feel like just a matter of time before the big-hitting American would breakthrough with another victory on tour.
DeChambeau's 27.6% ownership total led the way by over seven percent over the next option on the board in last week's 'Millionaire Maker' contest, but we did see a few of the most popular selections falter before the cut. Patrick Reed (17.1%), Brandt Snedeker (16.7%) and Will Gordon (16.6%) all stumbled to get themselves into the weekend, although it is worth noting that five of the top six ownership players did finish inside the top-25.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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Workday Charity Open - PGA DFS Overview
Muirfield Village
7,456 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass
We get a situation we are not used to encountering on the PGA Tour for the Workday Charity Open. The event will be held at Muirfield Village, not necessarily a reason for discussion in and of itself, but the circumstance becomes muddled when we consider that the following Memorial tournament will also be held at the same property.
The PGA Tour will attempt to make some subtle differences with how the track will play in back-to-back weeks, but you would have to assume a lot of the nuances will remain the same. The Workday Charity Open is projected to play about 60 yards longer than the Memorial and will feature slower greens, but the Nicklaus property will be lengthy, no matter how you want to shake it. Forced layups throughout will further emphasize the distance, but with some of the widest fairways on tour, players will still be able to bomb and gouge in spots. Thirteen water hazards and 73 bunkers are littered throughout the grounds, and the greenside sand traps are some of the deadliest on tour.
Muirfield Village consistently ranks inside the bottom-five of all PGA stops in scrambling percentage, and six par-fours range between 450-500 yards, with each of those holes playing over par. The four par-fives will be the best chances given for the golfers to make a move, and all are reachable for every player in the field. The last seven winners have won the tournament at 10-under par or better, so despite inserting potential hiccup spots throughout the way, the scoring isn't extraordinarily hard. We might want to dismiss the normally lightning-quick greens marginally since it does seem likely that they will need to provide extra moisture to the surface if they expect to keep the venue pristine for consecutive weeks, but I think the softened exterior could give an enhancement in approach numbers from 150 to 200 yards.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Muirfield Village | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 283 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 68% | 60% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 53% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.52 | 0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Justin Thomas leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay at 14/1, Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama at 16/1 and Xander Schauffele at 18/1.
Key Stats
- Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 20%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
- Ball Striking 17.5%
- Strokes Gained Approach + Bent Putting 15%
- Proximity 150-200 Yards 15%
- Sand Save 15%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
Justin Thomas ($11,100)
It has been an erratic run for Justin Thomas when it comes to both his course history at Muirfield Village and his recent form. In Thomas' past five events on tour, he has provided three top-10s to go along with two missed cuts. His results in Ohio have mirrored the same route, producing two top-eight showings in 2017 and 2018 but missing the cut in his other three appearances since 2015. Thomas' irregular output and expensive price tag on DraftKings will have me fading him for cash-game lineups, but his upside for victory will always make him an appealing GPP choice. Consider him to be the deserving betting favorite.
Jon Rahm ($10,900)
With all the support Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama are going to experience in this 10k-plus range, Jon Rahm could provide a contrarian route for those looking to start their builds up top. Rahm has not been uberly sharp since the return of golf four events ago, but his ability to score from the par-four range of 450-500 yards is encouraging. Red flags are looming that Rahm could be marginally overpriced with all the question marks surrounding his current game, but I am okay with taking some GPP shots with the Spaniard.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,600)
It is not a stretch to say that Patrick Cantlay will be the most popular selection this weekend on DFS sites. His last victory came at Muirfield Village in 2019, he restarted his campaign with an 11th place showing at the Travlers and the American is within the top-30 compared to the field in every statistical category I will be using for the Workday Charity Open. That resume makes him the number one ranked player in my model, but I don't believe it is that cut-and-dry. It is worth noting that Cantlay's Travelers result was greatly enhanced by his astronomical total of 5.1 strokes gained on the greens, and it is always dangerous to go down the 20%-plus route for any golfer not named Rory McIlroy or Bryson DeChambeau. Cantlay is a favorite to post a highly respectable result, but we are going to need more than just that if we want to pay off his $10,600 total. His lofty ownership has me considering using him more as a cash-game play for safety, but it is a risky route to go down with everything pointing in his direction.
Brooks Koepka ($10,400)
It will be interesting to see where Brooks Koepka falls on the Workday Charity Open's ownership meter. His seventh-place showing at the Heritage should give him a boost for those who believe he is now fully into gear, but there will still be your usual sub-section that will refuse to play Koepka in anything that isn't a major. Personally, Muirfield Village is typically a step up in difficulty, and while I am not entirely out on the idea of him performing well, I'd like to see a little more before I jump back in at a price over $10,000.
Xander Schauffele ($10,200)
Will Xander Schauffele go overlooked after two sub-par finishes at the Heritage and Travelers? Does his ownership percentage become afflicted even further after not playing the Rocket Mortgage Challenge? I surely hope so on each account. Schauffele is a name to monitor as the week progresses, and there are reasons to speculate he could slip to around 10 percent if the steam catches up to Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Rose. The American is going to need to clean up his recent around the green woes if he wants to compete for a title, but I'd be extremely cautious in bypassing the 11th-ranked player in the world.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,000)
I can't say I am surprised to see Hideki Matsuyama garnering nearly a 20% ownership projection. He attained 16% last weekend at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with no real form since the return, and now everyone gets a chance to acquire him at $200 cheaper after a top-25 in Detroit. Matsuyama is a steady performer who knows how to score DraftKings points, and even if I do consider the hype to be a little out of hand with his perceived lack of upside, the Japenese golfer typically finds a way to produce for his fantasy owners. He isn't for me in GPP builds since I want better win equity when discussing players over $10,000, but he is a steady floor play in cash games.
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Mid-Priced DFS Players
Justin Rose ($9,700)
Proper maturation growth in fantasy golf comes down to being able to decipher between what is good chalk, and what is bad chalk? That doesn't mean we always get the answer correct, but it does mean that we come to a conclusion that we stick behind. The fear of creating duplicate lineups only comes to fruition if we don't get creative around our most popular plays, and there will always be openings to insert under-the-radar options to diversify our total ownership exposure. With all that being said, Justin Rose is a difficult nut to crack at Muirfield Village. Course history and current form will point towards Rose being an elite choice for the week, but he does have numerous areas of concern from a statistical standpoint. The Englishman has a propensity to make mistakes, and those errors could be highlighted on the problematic par-four holes at the venue. It would be naive to suggest Rose isn't a threat to take home the title, but it will take the right sort of build around him to make it worth the gamble. If you can figure it out, I support the risk, but the 39-year-old is far from a sure thing.
Viktor Hovland ($9,500)
Viktor Hovland has failed to provide the blockbuster finish he has been looking for during the four tournaments back from Covid-19 shutting down the tour for three months, but you aren't going to find a player that has been more consistent across the board. Hovland has made all four cuts, securing four top-25 finishes and two consecutive showings of 12th and 11th, respectively. The youngsters ball-striking acumen and proximity numbers from 150-200 yards jump off the page, but there is a chance that Muirfield's dangerous greenside bunkers could provide peril for the 22-year-old. Hovland ranks just 124th compared to the field in sand save percentage and could find trouble if he is not careful.
Marc Leishman ($8,700)
I realize this article has been more factual than predictive so far this week, but DraftKings has done a relatively decent job with their pricing. It is much more challenging to find incongruities to the market when that happens, and there aren't a ton of players I am massively taking a stance against above $9,000. Outside of Rickie Fowler, every golfer above $8,900 ranks inside the top-15 of my model, presenting us a comparatively fair board by my math. However, one player that is showing to be an outlier is Marc Leishman. I understand the intrigue around the Aussie after posting four top-15 results at the property in the previous five years, but I believe his course history has been overly baked into his price tag. Leishman only has one top-40 finish within the last 10 weeks of playable golf, and we get a shaky picture around the 16th-ranked player in the world if his irons don't show up for action. I never want to be reliant on one particular aspect of someone's game clicking, and while Leishman surely could find success, it will have to come without me at his 16% projected ownership total.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,400), Gary Woodland ($8,300)
If we are going to eat chalk in this section, I feel more comfortable doing it with either Joaquin Niemann or Gary Woodland. Neither should be considered natural pivots away from Marc Leishman since we aren't necessarily changing to options that are supposed to generate less ownership, but I believe the upside from both should make them exponentially better GPP selections to take a risk on for the week. I am always looking for win equity above all else when making choices with my mid-to-high priced golfers, and where we will have a little more combustibility to worry about, the investment feels much more worth the risk.
Low-Priced DFS Players
Maverick McNealy ($7,500), Harold Varner III ($7,500)
It is hard to ignore Maverick McNealy and Harold Varner III when they continue to be listed as underpriced choices for the week. Many are coming to the same conclusion with both expected to draw ownership totals of over 10%, but the duo has combined to make 11 of their previous 13 cuts on tour. McNealy feels like the safer choice of the two because of his better skillset to score on par-fives, avoid bogeys and get himself out of the bunker, and I'd probably lean towards him being the higher upside play also. Regardless, though, both are threats for four rounds of golf, and that is always important when we enter this range.
Shane Lowry ($7,400)
It has been a rocky road for Shane Lowry since his Open Championship triumph, but we are starting to enter a level of absurdity with his pricing and lack of ownership. Muirfield Village's enhanced difficulty over what we have seen in recent weeks on tour should be a positive for the 25th-ranked player in the world, and his skillset of scrambling, bunker play and avoiding bogey should mean something at this course. It is not as if Lowry has broken the bank with his past results in Ohio or as of late, but I was encouraged by the signs of life that he showed at the Travelers en route to his first made cut of the restart. Bentgrass could give him the boost he has needed, and it might not take much for him to challenge for a top-20 finish.
Lanto Griffin ($7,400)
We finally get a price boost for Lanto Griffin, who jumps $600 in salary after his second straight top-25 finish since the restart. In my opinion, the increase in cost should be viewed as a positive since it allows us to roster Griffin at reduced ownership levels, allowing us to enable our edge over the field.
Ryan Palmer ($7,200)
Two weeks ago, a hiccup on Friday at Travelers Championship turned Ryan Palmer's fortunes upside-down and resulted in a round two explosion to miss the cut. Severe volatility from event-to-event hasn't been outside the norm for the American, but Palmer hasn't missed back-to-back cuts on tour since the Players Championship/Valero Texas Open in April of 2019. I can't say I don't have concerns regarding Palmer's sometimes paltry bunker play, but it does feel as if we are getting a rebate at $7,200.
Jim Furyk ($6,900)
It is kind of weird to say that Jim Furyk provides cash-game appeal after missing four of his previous six cuts, but you could do worse in terms of safety than the 50-year-old at under $7,000 on DraftKings. The American has made six of his past eight cuts at Muirfield Village - five of which resulting in top-35 finishes. Furyk's style of game isn't ideal for DraftKings scoring, but there is a chance that he can plod together a four-round total at a cheap price tag.
Matthew NeSmith ($6,800)
Matthew NeSmith is beginning to get the Lanto Griffin treatment from DFS sites. No matter what he does weekly, we see him priced under $7,000. That fact hasn't been lost amongst the fantasy community as a whole, which is why we currently see NeSmith projected at 10 percent ownership. I'm never a massive fan of eating sub-$7,000 chalk, but I can understand the infatuation around the selection this week. When I agree with the public's consensus, I typically prefer to use golfers like NeSmith as a cash-game play because of their apparent mispricing, but you could convince me to play him in all game types as a bargain bin value.
Adam Schenk ($6,500)
I find Adam Schenk to be an intriguing shot in the dark selection at the Workday Charity Open. His stats won't necessarily jump off the page when you dive into them, but there are a few areas that have piqued my curiosity. The 28-year-old ranks sixth compared to the field in scrambling, as well as inside the top-40 in par-four+bogey avoidance, proximity from 150-175 yards and over 200 yards, ball striking and putting within 10 feet. Schenk is rolling into the event off of a 30th place showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic but will most likely carry only a one percent ownership total. We are only looking for a made cut when we get into this territory, but I think there could be some sneaky appeal for more.
Cameron Davis ($6,400)
A brutal three-foot miss for par for Cameron Davis on his final hole Friday at Detroit Golf Club resulted in the Aussies' second straight missed cut since the restart. The disaster finish will surely keep most off of him after the 25-year-old ripped many potential star-studded lineups to shreds, but Davis has been steadier than his results may indicate. There is always going to be risk associated with selections this deep down the board, but a sprinkle of Davis here and there won't hurt since you don't need much of him to be overweight to the field.
