Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Sony Open

January 13, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Sony Open DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Harris English fired a final-round 69 to get himself back into the winner's circle for the first time since 2013. The victory provided English his third title on the PGA Tour and presented the 31-year-old a much-deserved triumph that felt as if it had been coming over the last few months.

The Georgia native was 13th in pricing on DraftKings last week at $8,700 and carried ownership that placed him inside a similar territory for most contests. I had the American valued as the 14th best golfer on my DFS model, but I know a few readers of this piece were able to make a copy of their own that turned English into one of the primary options for their builds after making some alterations. See what all the hype is about by trying your hand at producing your very own model today with my 'Rankings Wizard.'

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sony Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

Sony Open - PGA DFS Overview

Waialae Country Club

7,044 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

A 15-minute drive from Honolulu, Waialae Country Club was designed by Seth Raynor in 1925 and enhanced by Tom Doak in 2016. The improvement was meant to mimic the original layout, and Doak did a good job of incorporating that feel back into the property.

Unlike what we got from Kapalua last weekend, this week's venue removes a lot of what made the Tournament of Champions both easy and difficult. On paper, Kapalua was lengthy at 7,500 yards, but the wide-open fairways didn't exactly leave much room for danger off the tee. Your occasional bad lie or three-putt was possible because of the hilly terrain or gargantuan putting surfaces, but Waialae is about the exact opposite with its flat, boring setup that emphasizes par-four scoring and ball-striking.

Listed at just over 7,000 yards, the only real line of defense for the track comes down to wind, which can cause approximately a three-shot difference per day in calm versus windy conditions. However, the fairways are lined with trees that do mitigate some of the weather and should help to create cleaner second shots if drives can avoid a bad lie. There are 12 par-fours on the course, with 10 of them ranging between 400-500 yards, and golfers will get two chances per day to attack the scorable par-fives. Waialae should be considered a second shot layout that will reward iron play from over 125 yards, and it won't hurt to find a golfer that likes Bermuda as a putting surface.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Webb Simpson leads the way at 12/1 and is followed by Collin Morikawa at 14/1, Harris English at 16/1 and Hideki Matsuyama and Daniel Berger at 20/1.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Approach + Proximity over 125 Yards 20%
• Par-Four Scoring Between 400-500 Yards 20%
• Ball Striking 20%
• Overall Birdie or Better 15%
• L100 Bermuda + Putting From 5-10 Feet 15%
• SG Total In Moderate to Severe Wind 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Webb Simpson ($11,100)

This article is written so early in the week that ownership projections typically see some deviation by Thursday from where they are on Monday or Tuesday, but I don't think it is overstepping any bounds to say that Webb Simpson will arguably be the most popular player on the slate. The American finds himself in this situation about 3-5 times a year, most notably because of his course history at venues like the RBC Heritage, Waste Management or Wyndham Championship, but the extent of Simpson's potential here at Waialae hasn't been as pronounced as some of those other stops on tour. However, I would be careful in shifting away from the 35-year-old because of his lack of past wins at the venue, as the eighth-ranked player in the world has strung together five straight top-13 results, including back-to-back top-five finishes in 2018 and 2020. As much as I generally try to pivot away from chalk when possible, this isn't one of those moments.

Harris English ($10,800)

There are a lot of spots near the top of the board that will vacuum up ownership, making Harris English someone that will probably go overlooked after his victory last weekend. Golf is one of the only sports in the world where winning is viewed as a negative, and I do imagine we see most DFS users choose to either move up in salary to grab Webb Simpson or potentially down to seize any of the other $10,000 options. We will see if this circumstance plays itself out the way I believe it will, but there could be a contrarian opening available for a player that has strung together three straight top-six results.

Collin Morikawa ($10,600)

For a career that has seen less than 40 tournaments as a professional golfer, Collin Morikawa has been on both sides of the equation on Sunday. His masterful performances at the PGA Championship and Workday Charity Open have helped to catapult him into being a top-five golfer in the world, but there have been some mishaps on Sunday that need to be discussed. The one that comes most prominently to my mind would be his slip-up at the Charles Schwab where he missed a tap in putt during sudden death to lose to Daniel Berger, and I do think he will feel as if he also let one get away on Sunday at Kapalua. Morikawa followed up his letdown to Beger with a 64th place showing and then the first missed cut of his career, and I believe it is reasonable to wonder how he will bounce back from his unfortunate final round in Hawaii last weekend.

Joaquin Niemann ($10,400)

There could be some similar residue left on Joaquin Niemann after the 22-year-old was left dejected with multiple mishaps down the stretch to lose the first title of 2021 to Harris English. Predicting how the youngster is going to react is nothing more than a random guess, but it is worth noting that Niemann needed a nine-under par round on Sunday to get himself into a playoff. I usually don't love the idea of going back down the well on a golfer that might have used up one of his hot rounds during a losing effort, and it does appear as if the industry is in agreement early in the week. Let's see where Niemann's ownership is as we get closer to Thursday, but it is hard for me to want to jump back into the fray if he is approaching anywhere over 15%.

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200)

Yes, Hideki Matsuyama can't putt, but the negative-9.7 strokes he lost on the greens at Kapalua is even historically bad by his standards. The Japanese golfer finished the week a little over eight shots worse than his two-year baseline projection, and I am willing to chalk it up as nothing more than a week that got even more away than usual. My model had him finishing in a share of 29th place if we got a standard weekend on the greens, which is still paltry in a 42-man field, but the extent of the explosion has been a little overblown. There is an opening to go against the grain in GPP contests if the narrative continues throughout the week, but the situation has to be approached cautiously. A sub-10 percent Matsuyama might be worth going overweight to the field, but it is not as if the potential for an eruption isn't there again. That's a risk you are going to have to figure out if you can stomach, but these are usually positions I like to go against the general public.

Daniel Berger ($10,000)

I might regret this statement because I have Daniel Berger as the second-ranked golfer in my model for the Sony Open, but I question if his perceived win equity has gotten a little out of control. The American has been sensational over the last few months since the restart, but if we ignore the first six tournaments back, his previous seven events have ended with him only recording one top-15 showing - a 10th place result last weekend at the Tournament of Champions. Berger's one of the safer options on the board in cash-games because of the steady floor he provides, but that next gear hasn't always been easy for him to come by. The majority of the talk will come down to how well the 27-year-old plays Par-70 venues, which is true, but Berger's putting on Bermuda might be a little overrated - ranking 42nd in this field over his last 100 rounds. I love him in cash-games and don't think you will get punished playing him in GPP contests because of his floor, but 25% projected ownership is a lot to stomach for a golfer that might fail to reach his ceiling.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Sungjae Im ($9,800)

A Bermuda surface and two top-five finishes over his last three events should partially alleviate some of the concern that Sungjae Im scorches the industry to the ground with his 25%+ projected ownership total, but we shouldn't count ourselves entirely out of the woods. If you are building a cornucopia of lineups, I think it is important to take some sort of a stand here on Im. The exact percentages are something you will have to figure out, but finding some rate that places you overweight/underweight is essential because I don't see the point in playing him to the same total as the industry average. Im has the potential to walk out of Hawaii with his second title, but the floor does sink down to the ocean.

Other Mid-Range Options ($9,600 to $8,000)

I am going to clump together pretty much all the mid-range options this week because it feels as if the sportsbooks (and by default DraftKings) priced these golfers into one convoluted region. I think that gives you some freedom for how you want to build out your DFS lineups, but I will let ownership partially push me into specific directions. There is a real strategy available for those that want to double up with two golfers between the price points of Webb Simpson and Sungjae Im, but that isn't to say we should avoid the mid-range area altogether. I can be talked into some GPP shares of Russell Henley ($8,700), Adam Scott ($9,000), Abraham Ancer ($9,400) and Kevin Kisner at ($8,800), but it is difficult for me to say these are price points where I feel like I am getting the full bang for my buck. I want to make it clear that we have been littered with a slew of golfers that all grade out towards the bottom-end of the top-20 for me, but when you are paying top-20 salary upfront, it makes it a little more challenging to feel overly bullish on breakeven of net-negative choices. I'll most likely find myself overweight to this range in cash-games and below average in GPP contests.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Emiliano Grillo ($7,900)

Emiliano Grillo has transformed into this lackluster pick that lacks win equity, but he shouldn't be discredited for cash-game builds. Grillo ranks first in this field in ball striking and also finds himself third in strokes gained approach. His putting skills typically leave something to be desired, but 11 made cuts during his last 12 events to go along with his 4-for-4 record here at Waialae adds a floor that should provide four rounds of safety.

Brian Harman ($7,800)

Like Emiliano Grillo, Brian Harman has lacked recent top-end finishes, but the American has gotten around that for DFS purposes by posting 12 made cuts over his last 13 tournaments. The 92nd-ranked player in the world grades out fourth in par-four scoring between 400-500 yards over his previous 100 rounds - a distance that he will see 10 times per day.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,800)

The round one king was anything but his typical self on Thursday at the Tournament of Champions, firing a two-over par 75 to end the day in dead last place. Three straight rounds of 66,67 and 68, respectively, catapulted the Columbian into 17th to complete the event, but one has to wonder what might have been with a better start to his proceedings on day one. From an ownership perspective, I wish Munoz didn't storm the leaderboard in the fashion he did throughout the weekend, but his overall finish has still provided us a spot to grab him at a price tag that is lower than it should be at Waialae.

Talor Gooch ($7,600)

A good par-four scorer, Talor Gooch has been all over the map over his last five events, providing two top-fives and two missed cuts. That level of erraticness is something I like targeting in the $7,000 range when possible, and it shouldn't hurt matters that Gooch has posted a top-20 at the property in the past. Despite the perceived volatility, there isn't a statistic I am using for my research where the American grades lower than 59th, and he happens to crack the top-45 pretty much across the board. I believe we get a made cut out of Gooch, and the upside for a top-20 and beyond is there.

Kevin Na ($7,500)

After letting down many DFS users last weekend, early returns have Kevin Na projected to enter the Sony Open at less than five percent ownership. I'm not necessarily raving with optimism when it comes to the state of Na's game myself, but it isn't going to take us much exposure to bypass the general public if these projections hold steady. We know Na always has the potential to catch fire with his putter, and there is a chance for him to do so at a venue that does highlight some of his strengths.

Matthew NeSmith ($7,400)

There are many names we are bypassing in the $7,000 section with similar upside, but a lot of my disdain for the $8,000 range comes from how many playable golfers there are for a lower price tag this week. In the past, we have seen Matthew NeSmith find success at short Par-70 layouts, and the hope is there for him again to outproduce his price tag. NeSmith ranks fourth compared to the field in ball striking and also places inside the top-10 in overall bogey avoidance, GIR % and strokes gained approach.

Brandt Snedeker ($7,200)

It is funny because Brandt Snedeker has been so bad as of late that he isn't even getting the ownership bump from the course history crowd. Snedeker has generated three top-16 results at Waialae over the last five years, but a poor run of golf has seen the American place 44 spots worse than his baseline production when it comes to strokes gained total. There are obvious concerns that the trend might continue once again to begin 2021, but the extended break mixed with his playstyle makes him worth a second look.

Kyle Stanley ($7,200)

I like Cameron Davis a bit at this price also, but the Aussie loses some of his appeal with the way Waialae reduces his power off the tee. Instead, we will cover Kyle Stanley for the sake of this article - a golfer that has been a beacon of consistency at this venue when you remove his blunder last year. Stanley's ball-striking prowess and stellar par-four scoring between 400-500 yards might be enough to overcome his often poor putter, and he has a chance to provide his fourth top-25 here in six years.

Takumi Kanaya ($7,100)

I was somewhat surprised to see I had statistical data on Takumi Kanaya, as I forgot he played the ZOZO Championship a few months ago. The 22-year-old out of Japan missed the cut here by three strokes last year after firing a one-over par, but the familiarity with the course might be able to make his second trip a more profitable one. Consider Kanaya the equivalent of a hail mary, but my model has him projected to make the cut in 2021, which would place him in a good position to pay off his salary for the projected one percent of owners that do roster him. If Kanaya somehow happens to string together a top-20...well, then we are really in business.

Henrik Norlander ($7,000)

It hasn't been a good run for Henrik Norlander, who has missed his last three cuts. That generally is a hard selling point when you are speaking of a golfer that looks as out of form as can be, but let me try to convince you why this isn't your usual spot. Norlander's two most recent failed ventures saw him miss the cut on the number, and I do believe a game that wasn't far away from clicking should show up to Hawaii in better shape to find success. Add all of that together, and it appears like we have an underpriced commodity because of the misconception that is following a few near misses.

(Below $7,000)

I am doing something with this article I never do, which is clumping together another section as I did in the mid-range portion. To me, the value in this field is from $10,000 and up or inside the $7,000 range, but we are going to have to find possible options to fill out a lineup this far down if we want to take a stars and scrubs approach. William McGirt ($6,100), Adam Schenk ($6,600), Wesley Bryan ($6,300), Peter Malnati ($6,900), Austin Cook ($6,900) and Chase Seiffert ($6,200) are a few names that I will be rotating throughout builds, but I don't have anyone I am going to find myself exponentially overweight with when putting together my lineups. Make sure to download my 'Rankings Wizard' to see if you can pinpoint any value I might be missing in this section, and let me know on Twitter @Teeoffsports with what you have come up with for the week!

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