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Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Week 21

Pierre Camus looks at fantasy baseball risers and fallers in the contact rate category for week 21 to determine who may be worth buying or selling for 2017.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.

Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.

Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 21 of the fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Alcides Escobar (SS, KC) 92% contact rate last seven days (+13%)

Let's cut to the chase here: you do not want to own Alcides Escobar. If you are one who filters for performance over the last seven days or reacts to the waiver wire based on a list such as this, where Escobar is at the top of the contact rate risers, you aren't doing your due diligence. Escobar is batting .239 for the season, walks just over two percent of the time, and looks destined to finish with a career-high K rate. That aside, the only real reason to own Escobar in the first place is for speed and that has simply evaporated. He's inexplicably stolen just four bases all year, while being caught an equal number of times. With zero power upside to boot, his days of fantasy relevance seem over.

Cameron Rupp (C, PHI) 91% contact rate last seven days (+24%)

It's amazing what a little competition can do to a player's motivation. Since Jorge Alfaro was brought up, Rupp is 9-for-30 (.300) with a pair of homers and four RBI. This is still going to be a timeshare throughout September, but if you're in a two-catcher league or simply desperate for a backstop, Rupp could provide value. In a perfect world, you have bench space to add both him and Alfaro (and they're both available), so you can play daily matchups. You have that kind of time, right?

Neil Walker (2B, MIL) 89% contact rate last seven days (+6%)

The jump is rather small, but the rate is pretty high. Since moving to Milwaukee, Walker has been inspired (moving away from the Big Apple can do that to a player). He's stroking a smooth .435/.519/.565 and has walked twice as much as he's struck out. Granted, this is just over a seven-game period, so let's not get too carried away. Still, Walker should be invigorated by a much friendlier home ballpark and more energetic lineup. He was a popular preseason sleeper who, like most Mets this season, simply didn't live up to the billing. It's not too late to squeeze some fantasy value out of him over the last few weeks, though.

Manuel Margot (OF, SD) 91% contact rate last seven days (+10%)

This week's contact gainer who didn't gain many actual hits is Padres outfielder Manuel Margot. Like many rookies, he has been prone to hot and cold streaks all year. Despite cutting down on strikeouts, he was only hitting .182 in the past week and .203 in August until tonight's two-hit, three-run effort. The good news is that he's actually hit more homers in the second half over 100 fewer at-bats than the first half, but he's only stolen two bags in the last month. The talent is tantalizing, but we may have to wait another year for the whole package to come together. At least he's managed to keep himself on the big league roster, unlike teammate Hunter Renfroe.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Brad Miller (1B/2B/SS, TB) 48% contact rate last seven days (-24%)

Target Miller in the later rounds they said. He'll be a great power value at second base they said. "They" was actually me, but revisionist history aside, it's been a miserable season for Miller any way you slice it. 30 home runs were never going to be repeatable, but the fact he's hitting at a .187 clip and has only swatted five homers in 79 games made him a detriment to owners who stuck with him through the bad times and... the bad times.

Cory Spangenberg (2B/3B, SD) 51% contact rate last seven days (-23%)

Spangy has flat out been one of the best hitters in the National League since the break, but he may finally be cooling off. An 0-for-3 Tuesday night gives him three hits in his last 20 at-bats (.150). The way he's been hitting, it's not wise to dismiss him just yet, but proceed with caution.

Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) 65% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

Is Braun done in Milwaukee after this season? He's reportedly been on the block for a while, but injuries and the Brewers' surprising playoff contention this year changed those plans. In fantasy terms, Braun isn't going to win any MVP awards, but that's mostly due to time missed. His ratios are fairly in line with career norms and he's actually on pace to finish with the highest hard-hit percentage since his rookie year. Last week wasn't his best (.167 with no homers, no runs and two RBI), but don't read too much into it. This is one former MVP that shouldn't be written off yet.

Kendrys Morales (1B/DH, TOR) 59% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

His 0.33 BB/K would be the lowest since 2012 and his .242 batting average is the lowest since 2014. Since hitting .295 in May, his average has dropped each successive month, down to .159 in August thus far. Otherwise, Morales has delivered the type of power you'd expect. If you're still hanging onto him, you might be relieved to know that he's hit more HR in September than any other month throughout his career.

 

More Risers and Fallers




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Daniel Gafford

Makes Season Debut With Minutes Restriction
D'Angelo Russell

Cleared to Play Saturday
Deandre Ayton

Listed as Probable for Sunday
Paul George

Unavailable Sunday
Joel Embiid

to Sit Out Sunday's Action
Sam Merrill

May Skip Another Contest Sunday
Jarrett Allen

Questionable for Sunday
Darius Garland

to Remain Out Sunday
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Could Miss Another Game Sunday
Chet Holmgren

Not Ready to Return Sunday
Trae Young

to Be Re-Evaluated in Four Weeks
Payton Pritchard

Ready to Face Rockets
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Available Saturday
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Grizzlies Suspend Ja Morant for One Game
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Won't Play on Saturday
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Ready to Return Saturday
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Could be Traded
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Set to Return Saturday
Warren Foegele

Kings Place Warren Foegele on Injured Reserve
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Chris Tanev Cleared for Action
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to Start Game 7 of World Series
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Titans Fielding Trade Calls on Tony Pollard
Chris Olave

Saints Expected to Retain Chris Olave Through Trade Deadline
Joe Flacco

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Alejandro Kirk

X-Rays Come Back Negative on Alejandro Kirk's Hand
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Goes for X-Rays After Being Hit on the Hand
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Set for Season Debut Saturday
Ryan Reaves

Remains Under Evaluation
Trevor Moore

Expected to Return Saturday
Zach Benson

Placed on Injured Reserve
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Friday
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Out on Friday
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Luka Dončić

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to Miss at Least Two Games
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Considered Questionable for Saturday
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Remains Out Friday
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Ruled Out for Saturday
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William Nylander

Considered a Game-Time Call for Saturday
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Returning to Ducks Lineup Friday
Nico Collins

Officially Cleared to Face Broncos on Sunday
Brock Purdy

Questionable to Play, but Won't Start in Week 9
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ACL is Intact
Alvin Kamara

Questionable for Week 9, Trending Toward Playing
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Back in Leadoff Spot for Game 6 of World Series
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Not Listed on Injury Report For Week 9
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Practices in Full on Friday, Will Play in Week 9
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Officially Cleared to Return in Week 9
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"Strong Possibility" That George Springer Returns in Game 6 of World Series
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Arion Carter Listed as Questionable Ahead of Oklahoma Matchup
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Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
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Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
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Ryan Blaney

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Chase Elliott

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Behren Morton Will Start Against Kansas State
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Lane Kiffin Says Money Won't Impact his Decision-Making
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Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination
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