College Football Predictions: ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2023

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania for the 2023 bowl season. Compete with the reader's group to win premium access to our college football content for 2024!

ESPN's College Pick Em may have ended, but now we get Pick Em on steroids in the form of Capital One Bowl Mania. All you have to do is pick the winner of all 43 bowl games and assign a point value based on the confidence in each one of them from 1 to 43. The entry with the most points wins bragging rights with other RotoBaller readers....and FREE premium access to our college football content for the 2024 season. That includes access to the DFS optimizers and Discord chat to help with lineup decisions. Do I have your attention now? Join in on the fun here!

dherman8 had a big last week of the season with 47 points to take down the RotoBaller Readers Group in Pick em this year. Please contact me via Twitter/X to claim your prize!

Capital One Bowl Mania starts on December 16 and each game locks at kickoff. You can still move games around with others that haven't locked yet, which comes in handy since we have an increasing number of players that opt out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Some big names have opted out already and 1,190 players are already in the transfer portal, so make sure you keep up to date on that! If you want to participate in the spread version of the game as well, that group is here, though there are no prizes besides the one ESPN offers.

College Football Pick Em Overview

This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If I move a game up or down, I will update on X/Twitter if I can and on here so long as it doesn't muddle up the article too much. I haven't moved a lot of things around in recent years though, so that may be a viable option. Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (43). You know, for dramatic effect.

ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2023

(1) Howard over Florida A&M

I don't know much about either of these teams so I'm not going to pretend like I do. It is also why I am leaving the selection this low. I did watch Howard almost take down seven-win Northwestern and I watched the Rattlers lose to South Florida. If Howard can almost beat Northwestern, I'm pretty impressed by that. Especially because...

(2) Northwestern over Utah

...I have the Wildcats taking one from Utah. The Utes threw just 10 passes in their last regular season game and Northwestern did a good job of stopping the run all season. If they can stop the Utah running game, can the Utes pass to beat them? After a month of practice, it's possible. But you know me...I'm trying to steal points with 93% of the public on Utah in what should be a defensive battle.

(3) Maryland over Auburn

I've gone back and forth on this one a couple of times already. It comes down to the public at 68% on Auburn when Vegas has Maryland's odds of an outright win at +110. That's basically a toss-up. If Taulia Tagovailoa sits out, I'm taking Auburn. If not, I'm still staying on Maryland.

(4) Air Force over James Madison

Jordan McCloud is transferring out. So is leading rusher Ty Son Lawton. The Dukes are still going to be good, but I don't think what's left of the offense can beat a team like Air Force in their first real game action playing together.

(5) Notre Dame over Oregon State

Both teams are on the backup quarterbacks after the transfer of D.J. Uiagalelei out of Corvallis and Sam Hartman heading for the draft. Right now, Audric Estime is expected to play and he would be the best player on either side of the field. That said, Oregon State's run defense was good this year and I trust their more experienced backup in Ben Gulbranson. This is a game the Irish could lose, especially with Holden Staes, Chris Tyree, and Rico Flores Jr. among the others following Sam Hartman out the door.

(6) Bowling Green over Minnesota

I may end up moving this down because of Minnesota's defensive prowess, but nothing about this offense scares me. Zach Evans and Marquese Williams will leave a hole in the RB room. Minnesota will come up with another two or three, but if the Gophers find themselves in a position where they need to pass, they're in trouble. However, the transfer of Athan Kaliakmanis might actually improve the Minnesota passing game...

(7) Wyoming over Toledo

DeQuan Finn is finally transferring out of Toledo. We saw what a smothering defense can do to the Rockets even with Finn in there. I shudder to think what will happen now. Wyoming isn't that good of a team. The offense was a wreck even before D.Q. James left in the portal. Bet whatever the under is on this game and be careful with it in the confidence version of Bowl Mania.

(8) Tulane over Virginia Tech

I would normally do the same thing here with the public overweight (74%) on a significant dog (+240). However, after what Virginia did to the Hokies in the last week of the season, I don't see Tech winning this game. Michael Pratt is playing. So is Makhi Hughes. It feels like Vegas is wrong here.

(9) Georgia State over Utah State

I'm a little nervous about this one now that Marcus Carroll, the guy who ran for 1,350 yards and 13 touchdowns this year, is transferring. Leading receiver Robert Lewis is also leaving Atlanta. Darren Grainger is still there for the Panthers, but I no longer have a lot of faith in Georgia State winning this outright. Utah State is a solid team.

(10) Old Dominion over Western Kentucky

This should be known as the transfer bowl. 28 players from this bowl are out because of transferring. This is another situation where the public is overwhelmingly backing (80%) the underdog. +115 still means this is mostly a toss-up. In those situations, I'll go against the public trying to take points. The Western Kentucky offense has struggled to run the ball and couldn't adjust when teams locked down Malachi Corley. This is a winnable game for the Monarchs.

(11) Boise State over UCLA

Dante Moore and Kam Brown are off to different pastures. The loss of Eric McAlister for Boise has been dealt with for about two months now and Taylen Green wasn't playing a lot anyway. UCLA has a good run defense, but I feel that the combination of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty will wear down the Bruins enough.

(12) Rutgers over Miami

I'm old enough to remember how bad Miami's offense looked without Tyler Van Dyke this year. With Van Dyke entering the transfer portal, I'm completely flipping this game. Greg Schiano has Rutgers playing tough football and Miami has to play this in frigid New York. The Hurricanes have always struggled in cold-weather bowl games.

(13) North Carolina State over Kansas State

I may end up moving this one. Avery Johnson looked really good at times, but NC State should be able to stop him from running at will. Treshaun Ward is also fleeing Manhattan after not gaining as much traction as he had hoped in the K-State backfield. Brennan Armstrong still isn't what he was at Virginia, but we have seen flashes of that over the last month. Enough for me to think that the Pack win this one.

(14) South Florida over Syracuse

I feel like the dismissal of Dino Babers is going to hang over this team. I'll be surprised if Garrett Shrader plays in this game even though nothing has been announced yet. Byrum Brown is playing and will be far and away the best player on the field.

(15) Texas A&M over Oklahoma State

The Aggies lost Evan Stewart to the transfer portal, but they didn't use him as much as they should have anyway. I like Ollie Gordon a lot, but I'm not sure that he has the required pieces around him to win this game. A&M is favored even without Max Johnson and the public is only 30% on them. I'll follow that 30%. I've seen Oklahoma play terrible football a few different times this year.

(16) Appalachian State over Miami (OH)

App State closed the season strong, but this Miami defense has bordered on elite. The Mountaineers are built similarly to a Toledo team that lost the MAC Championship to the Redhawks. Miami might not play like that again, so this is far from a sure thing. That said, the public is lower on App State (49%) and Vegas is high on them (-250 to win). Aveon Smith is on his way out of Oxford and Brett Gabbert is out. The Redhawks have zero experience at quarterback.

(17) National Championship Game

I usually have this one a little higher, but where I have it now doesn't matter anyway. It gets moved around a lot as opt-outs keep coming in. We are at a bit of a disadvantage this year since the semifinals are the last two bowl games of bowl season. I feel like that's the way it should have been all along, but it is inconvenient for this bowl pool. This one likely won't be locked in until the first national semifinal game is over.

(18) Rice over Texas State

It's the talent of TJ Finley against the veteran leadership of JT Daniels and Luke McCaffrey. So far, both stars are still in for the Owls. I'm taking Rice unless one or both of them opt out.

(19) Central Florida over Georgia Tech

I don't know what to think of this game. UCF is plenty good enough to win this. So is Georgia Tech. The public is heavy on the side of UCF, but that game against Oklahoma State keeps eating at me. Georgia Tech doesn't have that ceiling, so I'll take UCF and lower the confidence.

(20) Georgia Southern over Ohio

This is another place where I'm trying to steal points. The line on this has swung in favor of Ohio, but the Georgia Southern money line is still at -115. Vegas believes this to be a toss-up and the public is overwhelmingly (80%) on Ohio. Kurtis Rourke, O'Shaan Allison, Sieh Bangura, and Miles Cross are all transferring out of Ohio. That's roughly 80% of the offensive production leaving an offense that wasn't very productive to begin with. I'm likely going to move this up.

(21) Missouri over Ohio State

The public is still high (68%) on the dog (Ohio State is +125 on the money line) even after Kyle McCord, Julian Fleming, and Chip Trayanum are transferring. This is the prime time to steal points. I might end up moving this one up. I liked Missouri even before the mass exodus. I like the Tigers a lot more now.

(22) Arkansas State over Northern Illinois

The Huskies offense was painful to watch all season and they lost leading receiver Trayvon Rudolph to the portal. The Arkansas State defense isn't great, but the offense looked really good down the stretch. Vegas has this as a toss-up (-105 in the NIU money line, -115 on the Arkansas State money line), and the public is heavy on the side of NIU (65%). I'm either going to run off with the pool this year or fail spectacularly. I'm not leaving much for in-between this year.

(23) Troy over Duke

Kimani Vidal is playing for Troy. Duke is without QB Riley Leonard, RB Jordan Waters, and RB Jaquez Moore. The Duke offense was sluggish without Leonard anyway. It's going to be awful without 90% of its rushing yards.

(24) California over Texas Tech

Fernando Mendoza and Jaydn Ott turned Cal into an exciting team to watch again. Tech lost WRs Loic Fouonji, Jerand Bradley, and Myles Price to the portal. They grow wide receivers on trees down there in Lubbock, but I trust the Cal defense against inexperienced receivers. The Tech defense was improved this year, but I don't see them stopping this Cal offense. I really wish that J. Michael Sturdivant hadn't transferred out...

(25) Jacksonville State over Louisiana

This is one of the few games featuring mid-majors that hasn't been ravaged by transfers. Louisiana is still on the third string (but last year's starter) QB, Chandler Fields. The Gamecocks went from a solid 1-AA team to an intriguing team to a good story to a bowl in their first year of FBS. They are closing this out right!

(26) Georgia over Florida State

I know I said that Florida State should be in the playoff and I'm standing by that. However, I can still think that Georgia is better than a Florida State team without Jordan Travis. They aren't mutually exclusive. An eight-team playoff would have been nice this year. Instead, we have to settle for a slighted team against the two-time defending champion. Not a bad consolation prize.

(27) New Mexico State over Fresno State

Jerry Kill hasn't publicly promised a tattoo if the Aggies win this game, but maybe he should. This seemed unlikely after the Aggies dropped the opening game of the season to UMass. Logan Fife is transferring and Mikey Keene struggled when the Mountain West schedule got tough. I do expect them to be marginally better here, but that's still not good enough to take down the Aggies.

(28) Arizona over Oklahoma

There was one team that I really didn't want to face in the bowl game. We got them. I didn't think Oklahoma would win this with Dillon Gabriel. With Gabriel heading to Oregon, I don't give Oklahoma much of a chance in this one. Arizona might be the best three-loss team in the country and they played in the toughest conference top-to-bottom this season. Of course, I hope Oklahoma wins, but I won't be mad if we lose this one. I had a lot of fun watching this Arizona team this season.

(29) Louisville over USC

I might move this down. Honestly, this is about as good of a matchup as USC could have hoped for. That maligned defense doesn't have to deal with an explosive offense. The bad news? They will have to take on a good Louisville defense without Caleb Williams and Brenden Rice, both of whom are headed for the NFL Draft. I still think Louisville's defense will win this for them, but I had this game up near the top.

(30) Alabama over Michigan

I was not one of the ones clamoring for Alabama to be left out. If you beat the team anointed as number one for most of the season, you are one of the top four teams. Michigan came up big in the big games. They handled Penn State. They quieted the Buckeyes and the cheating allegations that came with it. None of those things are like playing Alabama. Michigan is probably the fresher team since they didn't play a "good" team until November. That said, I think being tested throughout the season is good for a team. It should show here.

(31) Kansas over UNLV

This is a tough one, and I might move it down. UNLV has been a fun team to watch this year, but in watching them so much, I also know that they can't handle this Kansas offense. Jason Bean is less explosive than Jalon Daniels, but he is a similar enough player that the playbook remained the same and Kansas didn't really miss a beat.

(32) Iowa State over Memphis

The Cyclones were not the most talented team that I saw this year, but they were one of the toughest. They had every reason to fall apart this year. Matt Campbell had every reason to just mail it in and build for next year. Instead, this team made a bowl game. Abu Sama is a big reason for that, but Rocco Becht looked as unflappable as Brock Purdy did during his time in Ames. If this Iowa State team sticks together, they have a shot at winning the Big 12 next year.

(33) Mississippi over Penn State

The Nittany Lions were trashed by both Ohio State and Michigan -- the only two teams on their schedule with better than a top-50 offense. The Ole Miss defense has had its share of problems, but not enough for the struggling Drew Allar to go out there and beat them.

(34) San Jose State over Coastal Carolina

It's a mass exodus out of Conway, led by Grayson McCall (for real this time...maybe). 24 players are on their way out of Conway. Following McCall is backup Jarrett Guest, RB CJ Beasley, and WR Jared Brown...the team leaders in all of those respective categories. San Jose State loses Dominick Mazotti, but the rest of that potent offense is intact.

(35) Washington over Texas

Hey! We've seen this movie before. Just last year, in fact.

The Washington side of the ball is about the same. Texas had Jonathon Brooks at running back last year and won't this year. Washington's defense looked better this year than last year, and I still feel like Michael Penix is better than he was last year. Quinn Ewers finally had *that game* against Oklahoma State, but I'm not fooled. The Oklahoma State defense was a disaster for much of the year. Washington was the better team last year playing an hour from Texas's campus. They are the better team this year as well.

(36) South Alabama over Eastern Michigan

Eastern Michigan starting quarterback Austin Smith is transferring. This was not a good offense to begin with. I smell blowout. This South Alabama offense is explosive.

(37) West Virginia over North Carolina

It's everything I can do not to move this up more, and I felt this way before Drake Maye decided to skip the game. Another November swoon sunk the Tar Heels and it wasn't even Maye's fault this year. West Virginia isn't a particularly strong team, but they are tough and they play defense. That's enough to beat the Tar Heels.

(38) Clemson over Kentucky

The departure of Beaux Collins (if he doesn't transfer to LSU, I quit) doesn't move the needle for me since Clemson doesn't have the quarterback to make him a factor anyway. This is about defense, and Clemson still has one that borders on elite. Cade Klubnik is not a lot of things, but he does a pretty good job of avoiding turnovers. That's enough for Clemson to win this game.

(39) Oregon over Liberty

It's rare when a player opts into a bowl game, but it shouldn't surprise anyone that Bo Nix is playing in this game. His team needs him. You can say whatever you want about Nix, but he has always been a team guy. Well, and he has some unfinished business. Yes, Oregon is going to pile this on.

(40) SMU over Boston College

The loss of Pat Garwo III to the portal hurts Boston College's already slim chances at a win. Everyone on the SMU team is playing. This could get ugly in Fenway, even though this is essentially a home game for the Eagles.

(41) UTSA over Marshall

It's the last game for Frank Harris at UTSA. I'm going to miss watching him play. I've watched him as a freshman. I've watched him as a leader of a 10-win team. I've watched him play when he could barely walk. You'll be hard-pressed to find someone who has meant as much to a football program as Harris has meant to UTSA in his seven years there. UTSA is not losing this game.

(42) Tennessee over Iowa

Iowa's defense is great. The offense can't get past midfield. They will against the Vols and this game might be lower-scoring than most think, but an offense that bad can't beat Tennessee. It's just not happening.

(43) LSU over Wisconsin

Wisconsin has two starting wide receivers transferring out of a place where they couldn't pass for the entire Big Ten season. Even the Heisman curse can't help the hapless Badgers here. If it weren't for Iowa, we would all be talking about how bad Wisconsin's offense is.

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