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Expert predictions and picks for the 2024 College Football Playoff Bracket. First-round, quarterfinals, semifinals, and National Championship Game predications and analysis.
The 2024 college football season will surely go down as one of the wildest and most unpredictable campaigns in modern history. The 2024 season was full of surprises and upsets, and it has all led up to the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Fans and programs have complained that too many top-shelf teams are left without the chance to compete for a National Championship, so the expansion from four to 12 participants should put those concerns to rest.
No one expected Arizona State, Indiana, and SMU to be here at all, and few expected Boise State to land a first-round bye. The first 12-team CFP seeding did not come without controversy, but ultimately, the best program should rise to the top and take home the hardware in January.
Below, we'll pick all 11 games from the first round to the CFP National Championship Game. Hopefully, we'll get more competitive games than in prior iterations of the College Football Playoff. Without further ado, let's get to the picks!
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First Round College Football Playoff Predictions
No. 7 Notre Dame Defeats No. 10 Indiana (Notre Dame Stadium)
The biggest college football game in Indiana's history is set to be played on Friday, December 20 to get the playoff action started. Notre Dame ranks first in point differential per game (+26.3), while Indiana ranks third (+24.5). Both programs have been criticized for having an easy path to the CFP this year, so the Irish and Hoosiers aim to prove the doubters wrong.
That said, Notre Dame has significantly more talent and is more battle-tested. The winners of 10 in a row pick up another win in South Bend against its in-state foe to kick things off. Expect Riley Leonard's legs to be a major factor.
eXcellence#GoIrish☘️ | @xavierwatts6 pic.twitter.com/NnjYDxUb9w
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) December 1, 2024
No. 6 Penn State Defeats No. 11 SMU (Beaver Stadium)
Penn State is another program that has been criticized all season. The Nittany Lions do not have a great win on its 2024 resume, yet James Franklin's squad looked impressive in the close loss to the Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten title game. Quarterback Drew Allar will be an X-factor here, but the true difference in this contest should be the rocking crowd at Beaver Stadium.
While SMU has been one of the most fun teams to follow in 2024, Penn State's physicality and talent up front will end the Mustangs' season in Round 1 of the CFP.
No. 5 Texas Defeats No. 12 Clemson (Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium)
Clemson lost three regular season games but rallied to qualify for the CFP after taking down SMU in the ACC title game. Miami's losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse opened the door for head coach Dabo Swinney to make yet another playoff, but a road trip to Austin will be a tough test.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns are undefeated against teams not named Georgia, but they do not have a win over a team currently ranked in the top 25. Quinn Ewers' ups and downs have put Texas in close games, but expect the elite Texas defense to harass Cade Klubnik and the struggling Phil Mafah in this one.
No. 8 Ohio State Defeats No. 9 Tennessee (Ohio Stadium)
This showdown in Columbus is one of the toughest picks in the entire bracket. According to ESPN, the Volunteers have the No. 6 strength of record, while the Buckeyes have the No. 7 strength of record. Tennessee lost to Georgia and Arkansas, while Ohio State lost to Oregon and Michigan. Both have "good" losses and "bad" losses. It feels unfair to have these two squaring off in Round 1 while Arizona State gets a first-round bye, but that's how the new playoff system works.
The spread favors Ohio State by around a touchdown, but it should be closer. Ultimately, we're rolling with Ohio State here due to home-field advantage against freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava. If the game was in Neyland Stadium, Tennessee would be the pick. Either way, expect it to be a low-scoring game due to two elite defenses. The game could be decided on the final drive.
Quarterfinal College Football Playoff Predictions
No. 2 Georgia Defeats No. 7 Notre Dame (Sugar Bowl)
Carson Beck's elbow injury will be worth monitoring, but if he can't play in the postseason, Gunner Stockton will be prepared to lead the offense. Georgia looked dead in the water after getting blown out by Ole Miss last month, but as always, they have fought their way back and are the No. 2 seed in the bracket.
Notre Dame has historically struggled in these big games against physical opponents. That doesn't mean it will happen this year, but it's hard to bet against Kirby Smart with a long layoff and time to get his team ready. There's a chance Georgia wins big here, but the Irish defense is good enough to keep things close.
No. 6 Penn State Defeats No. 3 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)
Penn State could not have asked for a better draw. After defeating SMU, they'll play a neutral site game against Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos. It would've been fun to watch this game play out on the blue turf in Boise, but it will be played at the Fiesta Bowl.
Penn State has been known to come out of the gate slow before turning it on in the second half. That's the prediction here. The Broncos have enough juice to keep it close or even lead at halftime, but the Penn State depth and talent will take over in the final 30 minutes. The Nittany Lions advance.
WHILE THEY WERE HOLDING ONTO ALLAR'S JERSEY HE THROWS A TOUCHDOWN! pic.twitter.com/zPO3GAVmy1
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) December 8, 2024
No. 1 Oregon Defeats No. 8 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
These two teams squared off in Eugene in October, and the Ducks took home a narrow one-point win. Both Dillon Gabriel and Will Howard were excellent in that contest overall, so hopefully, we get another exciting QB duel. Dan Lanning looks like the next great coach in college football, so we expect his team to come out ready to roll despite the long layoff. The veteran Gabriel is more than prepared for this big stage at the Rose Bowl.
Ryan Day will get credit for winning a playoff game in Round 1, but the Ohio State fanbase will not be happy with a quarterfinal finish. This will be a big one for his future job security.
No. 5 Texas Defeats No. 4 Arizona State (Peach Bowl)
No disrespect to Arizona State. Head coach Kenny Dillingham has done a masterful job turning the program around, and who would have thought the Sun Devils would have a first-round bye in the first 12-team CFP? That said, Arizona State's 62nd-ranked strength of schedule is concerning, and this might be the worst team in the bracket.
It's tough to trust freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt in this matchup with a top-flight SEC defense, so as long as the Longhorns can limit running back Cam Skattebo, this could be a snoozefest. Longhorns win by four touchdowns.
Semifinal College Football Playoff Predictions
No. 2 Georgia Defeats No. 6 Penn State (Orange Bowl)
It can be tiring to see the same team or program always make it to the end in any sport. Well, it looks like we might have to deal with that once again with Georgia. Again, it's tough to bet against Kirby Smart with extra time to prepare, and it's extra tough to pick James Franklin to outcoach Smart in a massive contest.
If Penn State's front seven on defense plays to its ceiling, the Nittany Lions have a real shot here. If not, the Dawgs could run away with it. Welcome back to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, Georgia.
No. 1 Oregon Defeats No. 5 Texas (Cotton Bowl)
If this matchup takes place, it would be one of the most intriguing games of the season. Dan Lanning and Steve Sarkisian are firmly on the shortlist of some of the best coaches in America, and either team winning would set up a fun scenario for the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. If Texas wins, it would set up Georgia vs. Texas Part III. If Oregon wins, it would match Lanning against his former boss in Athens -- Kirby Smart.
This one would be a nail-biter, but give us the undefeated Oregon Ducks to advance to the big game after taking down the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl Classic.
Dillon Gabriel ➡️ Tez Johnson = Touchdown@Oregonfootball's offense just keeps on scoring ⚡️
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/OdzvW8Fk0Q
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 8, 2024
College Football Playoff National Championship Prediction
No. 2 Georgia Defeats No. 1 Oregon (in Atlanta)
Picking the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to make it to the National Championship is not exciting, but we're rolling with it. These two appear to be the best teams in the nation led by two elite coaches. This is the first season byes are a factor, and Kirby Smart and Dan Lanning will take advantage of not having to play an extra game to get here.
Oregon has a much tougher road and could be in closer dogfights to reach this spot, which can be an advantage or disadvantage. That said, we predict Smart to capture his third National Championship in the last four years. Even if Carson Beck can't participate in the playoffs, Georgia has a somewhat simple path to the big game, and its defense will be ready to roll. Here comes another dynasty!
Etienne breaks free ⏩
📺 ABC #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/TERFdAFBcq
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) December 7, 2024
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