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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for November 16 and 17 2023 Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets with the results from Week 11.
It was another fun week in the last great college football season. Michigan did it without Jim Harbaugh on the sideline. Washington is 10-0 for the first time since their split championship with Miami in 1991. Alabama wins the SEC West...again. USC loses...again. Northwestern is on the verge of a bowl berth after a disastrous 2022 season and offseason. You can't make this stuff up!
We only have three more games before the weekend this week. Tuesday's and Wednesday's picks were in the DFS articles. That may be the case going forward with ESPN blessing us with so many mid-week games between the Fun Belt, Conference USA, and MACtion. Hey, I'm not complaining. Any weekday with college football on is a gift in my book!
It's cupcake week in the SEC this week with a couple of huge exceptions (Florida-Missouri and Georgia-Tennessee). Florida State is trying out for the SEC by playing North Alabama. This is just a reminder that I will not pick games involving FCS teams. I don't want any more 40-point spreads than I have to pick.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 12 (11/16-17/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Boston College (-1.5) at Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't trust either team, but I trust Thomas Castellanos far more than anyone Pitt can dig up to play quarterback. Does Dan Marino have any eligibility left? No? Give me BC.
South Florida at UTSA (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. The Bulls have been all over the place this year, but I'm not sure UTSA can stop Byrum Brown. Roadrunners still win, but I'll say USF avoids the cover.
Colorado at Washington State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams are 4-6 and both have suffered some really close losses in the last couple of weeks. I feel better about the over-64 than the spread. Give me Colorado. This feels like a three-point game.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the bad along with the good? Here are the results from this season so far. I am still updating the past year's results and adding them to the sheet. I found most of my old articles and have the points system all the way back to 2015. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Ball State at Northern Illinois (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
This was a game that the Huskies should have been able to control but didn't. Ball State's defense did a much better job this week.
Central Michigan at Western Michigan (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Western has played very well with Hayden Wolff running the offense. They jumped out 14-0 and never looked back.
Ohio (-6.5) at Buffalo: MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
This looked good when the Bulls were up 3-0 at halftime. Then Sieh Bangura took over for the Bobcats.
Akron at Miami (OH) (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
This was a great performance by the Miami defense. Even when Jeff Undercuffler re-entered the game, he still wasn't successful.
Bowling Green (-9.5) at Kent State: HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
Ta'ron Keith put on a show in this one...and he's not even the starting running back! He was for this game, but still. Keith could have had an even bigger game. He was on his way to his third touchdown when he came up lame with an injury that might keep him out this week.
Eastern Michigan at Toledo (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
DeQuan Finn was an absolute monster. Of course, Peny Boone racking up 116 receiving yards didn't hurt Finn's stats any.
Virginia at (11) Louisville (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have taken my advice and not went nuts with this. Anthony Colandrea is going to be a really good player in this league. Virginia is far more competitive than they were early on.
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If only the Golden Eagles hadn't waited until the season was a lost cause to name a new play-caller. If they had done so at six losses, I still think we would see them in a bowl...where Frank Gore Jr. deserves to be.
North Texas at SMU (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
SMU held down Chandler Rogers and the offense looked better than it has in weeks.
Wyoming at UNLV (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really need to quit betting against the Rebels.
(3) Michigan (-4.5) at (10) Penn State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Penn State fans don't want to hear this, but this game was not as close as the score suggests. The Penn State defense held up their end of the bargain. Only allowing 24 to Michigan is an acceptable outcome. 70 yards passing from Drew Allar is not, especially when you can't run the ball. Michigan running 28 run plays in a row and not being stopped is not acceptable. This could be the end of the line for James Franklin.
(8) Alabama (-10.5) at Kentucky: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not sure why I was scared of this. It's not a stretch to say that Jalen Milroe might be the best quarterback Saban has had at Alabama. Think of all the talent that Bryce Young, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa had around them. This year's Alabama offense might only have one pro player at a skill position. Maybe. And he's a freshman.
Texas Tech at (16) Kansas (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still think Kansas wins this if Jason Bean doesn't go down. Cole Ballard did okay, but a week of practice would have done him a lot of good. Speaking of...Sunflower Showdown this week!
Tulsa at (23) Tulane (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not even sure what the problem is for Tulane right now. Tulsa has a bright future with Kirk Francis, but that's kind of the point. A guy who was playing high school football last year threw for 345 yards on the Tulane defense and he was splitting snaps with Braylon Braxton for most of the first quarter. Who knew that Tulane would really need that Shedro Louis kickoff return for a touchdown?
Indiana at Illinois (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Two of the worst offenses in a conference full of them hit the over before halftime and combined for 93 points. How can you not love this sport? By the way, I lamented that Illinois was making a mistake by not starting John Paddock over Luke Altmyer in the opener and I mentioned it again when Altmyer struggled. Paddock gets a chance and throws for the second-most yardage every by an Illinois quarterback. That's some good coaching right there!
Maryland (-2.5) at Nebraska: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nebraska's quarterback situation is one of the worst ever and it's completely their fault. They bring in Jeff Sims after Casey Thompson said he wanted to stay. Thompson transfers. Sims is the turnover machine that we all saw at Georgia Tech. He gets hurt/benched. Kid from Nebraska can run the option but can't stop throwing interceptions. Even the fans wanted Sims back. They get him...interceptions and fumbles ensue.
Now what? How about mega-recruit and Florida State transfer Chubba Purdy. You know...the brother of Mr. Irrelevant who became the starting quarterback for the 49ers in less than a year. Nebraska chews up chunks of the field until Purdy...throws an interception in the end zone.
Matt Rhule's track record speaks for itself, but at this point, Purdy should start until the end of the season. You know Sims isn't your guy. You know that Heinrich Haarburg isn't your guy. Purdy finally deserves to be put into a situation in which he can succeed. His entire Nebraska tenure, Purdy has only played in harrowing situations and he has largely failed. Give the guy a chance. From scratch. He deserves it, and so do the fans.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It doesn't get any easier than this to take money from Vegas. Vanderbilt should probably join what is left of the Pac-12. Regions don't mean anything anymore anyway.
Virginia Tech (-1.5) at Boston College: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I shouldn't have chickened out on these. I let the lower spreads take me off of max bets. In other news...I finally picked Boston College right for the first time this year!
Georgia Tech at Clemson (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tech got wrecked here. I guess Clemson isn't done after all...
Temple at South Florida (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Two of the more exciting young quarterbacks in college football combine for 50 total points. Kind of a letdown, you know? So was USF not covering despite dominating the game statistically.
Old Dominion at Liberty (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Few teams have the egregious home/road splits that Old Dominion has. They're a bear in Norfolk and a cub everywhere else.
(21) Arizona (-10.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado may not play good football, but they play exciting football. They don't quit with the possible exception of the Oregon game. If USC had Colorado's heart, they would be undefeated.
Connecticut at James Madison (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. This was the first time I missed on James Madison this year. My quest to have an undefeated season on a team now rests with Iowa State.
North Carolina State (-2.5) at Wake Forest: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This still isn't the Brennan Armstrong I was expecting, but he is showing flashes of it. It's too little too late though. A good Senior Bowl showing might get him a combine invite. Two years ago, he was a middle-round pick.
Memphis (-9.5) at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That Memphis defense...or lack thereof...gets me every time...
Appalachian State at Georgia State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really hate picking App State this year. This is a different team than they were a month ago though. Different enough that they might knock off James Madison.
Troy (-21.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I fooled myself into thinking that Monroe is a solid team. I was mistaken. Troy is a very opportunistic team.
Baylor at (25) Kansas State (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a Murphy's Law game for Baylor. Everything that could go wrong did and they were down 35-13 at halftime. This wasn't Baylor's only game like that this season. This is a sloppy, sloppy team.
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Congratulations to Sam Houston on their first FBS win. It won't be their last.
Nevada at Utah State (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was way too close for comfort.
Miami (FL) at (4) Florida State (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Miami showed up for this one. I never would have thought that Emory Williams would overtake Tyler Van Dyke this year, but here we are.
(18) Utah at (5) Washington (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was pretty much what I expected. Utah takes a lead, Michael Penix Jr. leads the Huskies back. Special players make special plays to win special games.
(13) Tennessee (-1.5) at (14) Missouri: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I will never get ESPN's unwavering belief in Tennessee. With Hendon Hooker there last year, it was warranted. This year it is not and hasn't been since they got ravaged in the Swamp by Florida. Missouri is a really good team, guys. Just ask Georgia. No team has pushed the Bulldogs over the last two years like Missouri has with the exception of Ohio State.
(15) Oklahoma State (-2.5) at Central Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The worst run defense in the Big 12(14) faces the best running back in the conference and they hold him to 25 yards on 12 carries. 25 yards! R.J. Harvey went nuts on the OSU defense. The game script wasn't kind to Ollie Gordon since the Cowboys trailed early and often, but where in the world did this come from? This was the best the UCF defense has looked since Scott Frost's last year in Orlando.
Rutgers at (22) Iowa (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm not surprised that Rutgers was shut out. I'm not surprised the under hit. I am surprised that Iowa scored 22 points though. Vegas lost their asses on this one. I don't know one single person that bet the over on this game. The under was pounded at a historic rate and it hit.
Florida International at Middle Tennessee State (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How in the world did FIU win four games?
Minnesota at Purdue (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There was no reason for me to put any kind of wager on this game. I'm sorry. This was one of the best games for Athan Kaliakmanis and the Minnesota defense goes belly-up. Figures...
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Anyone betting on the Badgers right now needs an intervention. This team is a disaster.
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If only I had gone back and changed this in my Pick Em picks...
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
What kind of game was this? Syracuse tight end Dan Villari led the game in rushing yards with 154 on 17 carries. You can't make this up...
UAB (-2.5) at Navy: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Navy really got after Jacob Zeno in this one. That UAB line got destroyed.
Texas State (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It was a spirited effort by the Bobcats, but CCU still reigns in Conway.
Auburn at Arkansas (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
See what happens when you pick a quarterback and stick with it? Payton Thorne isn't great, but he doesn't have to be. All he has to do is keep the defense off balanced. He has done a good job of that lately.
Washington State at California (-1.5):HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
At least Washington State is back to being competitive again. Ollie Gordon was able to fool us for a while, but I still think Jaydn Ott is likely the best back in the country.
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Pirates are showing signs of life and it has everything to do with their defense. Can you imagine this defense with last year's offense for ECU? If only...
Arkansas State at South Alabama (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't understand how La'Damian Webb can absolutely dominate this game and the Jags still can't cover...
Stanford at (12) Oregon State (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This felt like a warning shot for the Huskies. We have seen many teams struggle or lose outright the week before a big game. Oregon State went out and laid 62 on Stanford. Your move, Washington...
(9) Mississippi at (2) Georgia (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Every time the talking heads say that Georgia will be tested, they steal the answers and embarrass the team in front of them. Jaxson Dart leaving the game didn't help, but Georgia was in control anyway.
West Virginia at (17) Oklahoma (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm a horrible fan. Where was this the last two weeks, guys?
Cincinnati at Houston (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Nothing can be more fitting of Houston than handing Cincinnati their first Big 12(14) win. This was a terrible game by the Cougars and it wasn't all the fault of the Cincinnati defense.
Georgia Southern (-1.5) at Marshall: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's what a healthy Rasheen Ali looks like.
San Diego State at Colorado State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That stupid half. More like the stupid CSU defense that allowed 13 fourth-quarter points after pitching a first half shutout.
Michigan State at (1) Ohio State (-31.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Marvin Harrison Jr. That is all.
(7) Texas (-12.5) at TCU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Texas is not that team. They were up by 20 at halftime and nearly blew this. The loss of Jonathon Brooks could cripple them.
Florida at (19) LSU (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Florida hung around for a while. They Jayden Daniels went and set some records. He is the best player in college football, period. If the Heisman weren't some poorly concocted popularity contest, Daniels would win in a landslide.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow...look what happens when you replace an average quarterback with someone with potential. Jaylen Henderson may not be the answer for the Aggies, but he should have been given a chance before this.
Rice at UTSA (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This might have been high if J.T. Daniels had played in this game. A.J. Padgett is decent, but Daniels is a leader.
Duke at (24) North Carolina (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was so close for Duke. For Carolina? They almost lost to their rival at home who was on their third-string quarterback.
Arizona State at UCLA (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This may be Chip Kelly's worst coaching job ever. I really do wish Arizona State would have made a bowl. This is a fun team to watch.
New Mexico at Boise State (-26.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not surprised. New Mexico is a bad team outside of Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Iowa State (-8.5) at BYU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This could be the start of something big for the Cyclones. Abu Sama is going to be really good. So will Rocco Becht. Now if they could only get Jaylin Noel a couple more years of eligibility...
USC at (6) Oregon (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maybe Alex Grinch really was the problem? Who knew? Holding Oregon to 36 this year is a pretty impressive feat.
Fresno State at San Jose State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Never mind that deflating balloon sound. It's just Fresno...
Air Force (-19.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
From their highest ranking in decades to losing by 14 as 20-point favorites...all in the span of two weeks.
College Football Betting Season Results
I got my head back above water with a 34-30 week. That puts me at 306-305 on the season. Hey, in the black is in the black. However, my betting has been more successful than that. We'll take a look at the points won.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-2 (24-35) = -11
2. 10-13 (115-118) = -6
3. 13-10 (102-99) = 9
4. 6-3 (39-36) = 12
5. 3-2 (25-17) = 40
I gained back the 20 points that I lost last week. Maybe I should go on vacation more often! I am back where I was at the end of Week 9, but there's nothing wrong with holding steady. Despite my 305-304 overall record, I have gained 44 betting points. That's a success!
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