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Mike's CFB betting results against the spread for the 2024 season and bowl games. How did the bowls go? Who were his best and worst teams of the 2024 college football season?
We are at the end of the 2024 college football season, nearly a month into 2025. That's what expanding the playoffs does. It also made two of the biggest upsets -- Northern Illinois beating Notre Dame in South Bend and Michigan beating Ohio State at the Shoe -- irrelevant. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you kill regular-season football. I hope it was worth it. Everyone else got richer, and fans of Ohio State and Notre Dame had to buy tickets to three more road games if they wanted to see their team play in the championship. They undoubtedly got poorer.
I headed into the bowls a shade under .500 on the season, so I needed a good showing. It's nearly impossible for that to happen with all of the opt-outs and transfers. I kept track the best I could and notified you guys if possible. Oftentimes, we had little or no time to pivot. I like to try to take advantage of early lines that I think are off, but I'm staying away from that in bowl season. The greed in college football told players that regular post-season bowl games don't matter.
We'll run down the results of the bowl games along with my picks and give the final tally for 2024. For the rest of the month, I'll highlight the goings-on in the transfer portal so far and give the final power rankings for 2024. My 2025 power rankings won't come out until Week 0. A lot will happen between now and August. That's the only thing that I can be sure of.
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CFB Betting Picks - 2024 Bowl Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow.
Army (-6.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's right. The sacred Army/Navy game was played on the same day the bowl season started. Oh, the humanity! And...oh, the Navy offense!
South Alabama (-7.5) vs. Western Michigan at Montgomery, AL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That stupid half. Despite most of the offense opting out, South Alabama still won and almost covered. If only I had come back and changed my pick...
(25) Memphis (-2.5) vs. West Virginia at Frisco, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Garrett Greene kept it close for the Mountaineers despite missing most of his receivers. Surprisingly, the Memphis defense came up big in this one.
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (-7.5) at Boca Raton, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The under hit and the Dukes covered. It was a win-win. I would need it by the end of this month-long smorgasbord of football.
California (-3.5) vs. (24) UNLV at Inglewood, CA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
UNLV covered this easily, even though Ricky White III opted out right before the game. Cal was missing most of their offense. We need to make bowl games great again. This could have been a really good one.
Georgia Southern (-6.5) vs. Sam Houston at New Orleans, LA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sam Houston leads Georgia Southern 21-10 at halftime of the @NewOrleansBowl.
Jaylon Jimmerson has two picks and returned one for a touchdown for the Bearkats. Hunter Watson has one passing TD and one rushing TD.
pic.twitter.com/SbiMrG08hT— Colton Pool (@CPoolReporter) December 20, 2024
It's not often that a defensive guy wins the MVP of a bowl game, but Jaylon Jimmerson deserved it. He's the reason the Bearkats won this outright.
Ohio (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville State at Orlando, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is what bowl games are supposed to be. Parker Navarro and Tyler Huff were one-man gangs for their respective offenses. This was fun, and I hope you got to see it.
Tulane vs. Florida (-12.5) at Tampa, FL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Man what a way to cap off the season with a Bowl Win!! GO GATORS!!! We dominated Tulane 33-8 in the Gasparilla Bowl! DJ Lagway threw for a bowl-record 305 yards and was named MVP. Our defense was straight fire, holding Tulane to just 194 total yards – a Gasparilla Bowl record…
— Steven Harris #93 (@FAMOGANG365) December 21, 2024
I wish I wouldn't have backed off of this one. DJ Lagway gave everyone a taste of what's coming in 2025. Florida fans should be very pleased. Lagway is one of the most polarizing players heading into 2025. I don't get all the hate. He's not Anthony Richardson. Lagway can actually throw a deep ball.
(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
???
9️⃣8️⃣ yards
Jeremiyah Love is a BAD MAN#GoIrish
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) December 21, 2024
This is when I knew I was screwed. To be fair, Indiana played a solid game after that play. While I normally back him for being unbiased and fair, Kirk Herbstreit was completely out of line, saying Indiana didn't belong.
His pride wouldn't let him apologize, but he should have. That was the worst take he has ever had, and he didn't do himself any favors by piling it on during the game.
(11) SMU at (6) Penn State (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
SMU, I expected more from you. I stood up for you. I feel like Pedro Cerrano in Major League. It's all because I wouldn't sacrifice a live chicken, right?
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. You can't lay this at the feet of Cade Klubnik. He may have had his best game of the season. This is on the defense, who let Jaydon Blue and the Texas line abuse the front seven.
(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I missed this one badly. Tennessee fans stuck to their promise and invaded Columbus en masse. At least they got to cross a stadium off the bucket list. The game was a disaster for Tennessee.
This game would have stayed closer if Dylan Sampson were healthy for the entire game, but we're splitting hairs. Ohio State would have won anyway...it just might have been a closer game.
UTSA (-13.5) at Coastal Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It didn't matter what I locked in my bet at. UTSA was locked in. Owen McCown is one of the better quarterbacks who will return in 2025. Don't let anyone tell you differently.
#UTSA quarterback Owen McCown in his first season as the starter:
? 3,170 passing yards (3rd AAC)
? 24 passing touchdown (2nd AAC)
? 9 interceptions
?82.8 overall offensive grade per @PFF (2nd AAC)Only going to get better ? pic.twitter.com/T8T5FJT7yM
— Paisano Sports (@paisano_sports) December 2, 2024
Northern Illinois (-3.5) vs. Fresno State at Boise, ID: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
NIU made us sweat this, thanks to all of the opt-outs. Fresno's Mac Dalena helped push this to overtime, but the NIU defense shut out the Bulldogs over the last three quarters.
South Florida vs. San Jose State (-3.5) at Honolulu, HI: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Byrum Brown was out and South Florida still won in five overtimes. For the umpteenth time, please change the overtime rules. A series of two-point conversions is no way to decide a game like this (or any game, for that matter). The teams can still go for two after the second overtime, but at least make them start from the 10-yard line and run four plays.
You'll forever remember where you were for the 2024 Hawaii Bowl.
Absolute cinema. pic.twitter.com/BhfgTvXrEp
— Connor Ferguson (@cfchangs9) December 25, 2024
Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs. Toledo at Detroit, MI: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It shouldn't matter who quarterbacked the Panthers, as Desmond Reid played in this game, and Pitt still lost. Absolute fail! However, the five overtimes of the Hawaii Bowl were overshadowed just two days later with this six-overtime thriller. Toledo earned this win.
Rutgers vs. Kansas State (-6.5) at Phoenix, AZ: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Ugh...maybe if K-State spent as much on football NIL contracts as basketball...
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (-7.5) at Mobile, AL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Terion Stewart only carried the ball six times, but BGSU got a career game out of Connor Bazelak and Harold Fannin Jr., yet still managed to lose this game. Nice going, guys...
Harold Fannin Jr. has reportedly “started to separate himself” as the best TE in attendance at the Senior Bowl this year.
Multiple NFL scouts reportedly believe Fannin’s game is “reminiscent” of a faster Antonio Gates.
Fannin Jr. himself recently said that he likes to “model”… pic.twitter.com/283Z6XwiAm
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) January 30, 2025
Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. Navy at Fort Worth, TX: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Navy had to pull this out. With the way Oklahoma looked on the first two drives, I thought we might pull this out. It turns out the better team won. This was also the precursor to the Sooners heavily going after Washington State's John Mateer instead of sticking with Michael Hawkins Jr.
Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs. Vanderbilt at Birmingham, AL: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Did anyone else see that preposterous Top-10 quarterback list on X by On3 last week? Diego Pavia wasn't on it. EPIC FAIL! I'm psyched to see him carry Vandy again in 2025! He's a walking highlight reel, and I love it!
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas (-1.5) at Memphis, TN: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yes, I would have switched this bet if we had known that Tahj Brooks wouldn't play. Unfortunately, we got very little notice.
(21) Syracuse (-16.5) vs. Washington State at San Diego, CA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Orange let off the gas and nearly blew the cover in Kyle McCord's final collegiate game. I wish he would have gotten another year with Fran Brown at Syracuse. The Orange might have won the ACC in 2025.
Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. USC at Las Vegas, NV: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
One factor that I didn't consider when betting on this game is Jayden Maiava's return to Las Vegas. He ate it up and brought USC back from the brink to win.
Connecticut vs. North Carolina (-2.5) at Boston: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is UConn back? Yeah, UConn is back. This was the first bowl win for the Huskies since 2010.
Boston College vs. Nebraska (-3.5) at New York City: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A slog definitely favored Nebraska. Grayson James, overshadowing Dylan Raiola, wasn't on my bingo card for this game.
Louisiana vs. TCU (-10.5) at Albuquerque: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really wish that I hadn't chickened out on this because of the half. TCU dominated this game in every way possible (as they should have).
(18) Iowa State vs. (13) Miami (FL) (-4.5) at Orlando: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A de facto home game, and the Hurricanes still couldn't win. That's Miami in bowl games for you. That said, if Cam Ward hadn't sat out most of the second half, I think Miami would have won this game. It was the right decision for him, but that has to sting a little for Hurricanes fans.
Miami (OH) (-2.5) vs. Colorado State at Tucson, AZ: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I expected a closer game, but it doesn't matter to me. A win is a win, no matter how we get it.
East Carolina vs. North Carolina State (-7.5) at Annapolis, MD: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Pack not only failed to roll, they failed to win. I loved seeing a game like this from Rahjai Harris. I've been watching him for years. He deserved to go out in style!
OH MY GOODNESSSSSS RAHJAI HARRIS ?☠️?☠️#AmericanWay x @ECUPiratesFB pic.twitter.com/oykjwXxPpQ
— The American (@American_Conf) December 29, 2024
(17) BYU vs. (23) Colorado (-3.5) at San Antonio: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
As I expected, this was not a close game. The difference was the other team was the one who took Colorado behind the woodshed. It was an ugly last collegiate game for Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders.
Louisiana Tech vs. (22) Army (-14.5) at Shreveport, LA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
My cold feet in rising lines with the half on the wrong side cost me dearly. Most of them weren't close, and I missed the chance to get ahead.
Iowa vs. (19) Missouri (-2.5) at Nashville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's what I get for picking Iowa...
(11) Alabama (-11.5) vs. Michigan at Tampa: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew this line was out of whack, but I didn't trust my instincts. Jalen Milroe regressed in his second season as a starter because he had almost no help on offense. As for Michigan, if they get a quarterback who can throw, this is a playoff team.
Louisville (-2.5) vs. Washington at El Paso, TX: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It kind of makes you wonder where Washington would be if they had started Demond Williams Jr. instead of Will Rogers. Giles Jackson was once again a monster in the bowl game.
(15) South Carolina (-10.5) vs. (20) Illinois at Orlando, FL: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The inability to run the ball was a massive problem for South Carolina. LaNorris Sellers had a solid game, but this proves that South Carolina needs to put some talent around him, or they'll struggle to stay at .500 in 2025.
Baylor (-3.5) vs. LSU at Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The LSU defense and special teams won this game for the Tigers. Sawyer Robertson had a monster game for the Bears and still lost by 13 points.
(6) Penn State (-10.5) vs. (3) Boise State at Glendale, AZ: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There was no more Fiesta Bowl magic for the Broncos. Boise State hung around for 50 minutes or so, but they were teetering on the brink for most of the game. Boise was always one play away from falling apart.
(5) Texas (-12.5) vs. (4) Arizona State at Atlanta: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Texas should not have won this game. Scott Van Pelt says it all.
Scott Van Pelt on controversial call during Peach Bowl: ‘That’s targeting a hundred times out of a hundred’ https://t.co/YxHxBMlaIf
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) January 2, 2025
The biggest hose job in the history of college football. This is the literal definition of targeting pic.twitter.com/LFhlTmPA66
— Cyclone Hoops Report (@hoopsreport_ia) January 1, 2025
You know what really clinches this for me? The biggest SEC shill in the world, ESPN, has its most famous and well-liked host saying the other team got robbed. You know it's bad when this happens.
Cam Skattebo outgained Texas by himself in this game. This should have been an Arizona State outright win.
To recap Cam Skattebo’s Peach Bowl
—100+ yards thru 3 quarters, vomiting entering 4th quarter, gets an IV
—throws a 42-yard TD pass on 4th down to make it 24-16
—Next drive catches a 62-yard pass, then runs in the TD, then runs in the 2-point conversion to tie the game
—Has more…— Danny Heifetz (@Danny_Heifetz) January 1, 2025
(8) Ohio State (-2.5) vs. (1) Oregon at Pasadena, CA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The byes weren't an advantage, but in this case, I'm not sure it mattered. Oregon could have played the best game that they were capable of and Ohio State still would have beaten them. The Buckeyes looked better in this game than in any game this season.
(7) Notre Dame vs. (2) Georgia (-1.5) at New Orleans: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The ref collided with a Georgia player ?
A sideline interference penalty was called during the play. pic.twitter.com/Aia7NjrOQr
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) January 2, 2025
Give the kid a break. The referee was almost on the green. I hated this call because of what it did. Notre Dame likely wins the game anyway, but making a walk-on into a villain was a bad look for ESPN. The sad part is it wasn't even the worst thing the network did during bowl season.
ESPN brought college football from the Stone Age to the masses, and I will be forever grateful for that. However, they are far too involved and biased to be taken seriously anymore.
Duke vs. (14) Mississippi (-17.5) at Jacksonville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have to hand it to Mississippi. Lane Kiffin is out there dogging every team that got thrashed in the first round of the playoffs. He spent all of December 20 saying that his team deserved to be in over the teams that were getting smoked. Talk about bulletin board material.
What does Mississippi do? They back up their coach and punish Duke for the largest bowl win in school history. That Kentucky loss was so bad that it should have (and did) disqualify the Rebels, but I respect the way they backed up their coach.
Not only is this the best throw I’ve ever seen Jackson Dart throw, it may be the best throw I’ve ever seen, period. pic.twitter.com/3xMwdiwUe4
— Brad Logan (@BradLoganCOTE) January 3, 2025
North Texas vs. Texas State (-13.5) at Dallas, TX: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Drew Mestemaker is going to be a whole lot of fun to watch for North Texas in 2025.
Minnesota (-9.5) vs. Virginia Tech at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have laid a lot more on this game. Minnesota was clearly the better team, and they showed up wanting to play.
Buffalo (-2.5) vs. Liberty at Nassau, Bahamas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Buffalo might win the MAC next year.
(7) Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. (6) Penn State at Miami: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There was plenty of blame to go around in the Penn State universe for this one, but I should have known better if for no other reason than this:
James Franklin is now 1-15 vs. AP top-5 opponents as the head coach at Penn State pic.twitter.com/uvTUztVJ2q
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) January 10, 2025
(8) Ohio State (-6.5) vs. (5) Texas at Jerry World: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I would blame Quinn Ewers or Jack Sawyer, but even without that turnover, Ohio State wasn't letting Texas into the end zone and Sark wouldn't have kicked a field goal in that situation. The Buckeyes were covering this regardless. That was another massive goal-line stand by the Buckeyes.
(7) Notre Dame vs. (8) Ohio State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 4
Notre Dame was lucky to keep it within 11 points. It could have been much worse. And just like that, losing to Michigan means absolutely nothing. I haven't heard much from the "Fire Ryan Day" crowd in the last fortnight.
YOUR 2024 CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: THE OHIO STATE BUCKEYES ? pic.twitter.com/d2WV4FDqvx
— ESPN (@espn) January 21, 2025
College Football Betting Season Results
I was doing pretty good until we got to the playoffs. Ohio State and Notre Dame ruined me. I was too swayed by the Michigan game and didn't pay attention to how well Ohio State played against Tennessee because of the Sampson injury. I discounted the Buckeyes in the post-season, and it cost me.
I ended up at 22-25 for the 47 bowl games. That puts me at 394-403 on the season, picked every FBS vs. FBS game. I was hoping for a better finish, but it's not as easy as it looks. I'm sure the points looked bad too.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 0-3 (32-48) = -16
2. 11-3 (177-146) = 62
3. 9-9 (120-132) = -36
4. 1-9 (41-48) = -28
5. 1-1 (25-29) = -20
I lost 19 points during the bowls, which is almost everything that I made back in conference championship week. Overall, I lost 38 points on the season. That's not ideal, and a terrible 2021 season is still holding my bottom line back.
My goal for the offseason is the get the spreadsheet fully up to date so I know exactly how far ahead or behind I am.
Here are my best and worst teams this season:
Army: 10-3
Washington State: 10-2
Jacksonville State: 10-4
Bowling Green: 2-10
USC: 2-11
Ohio State: 4-12
I will be around covering some fun offseason topics and bringing you whatever I can from the college basketball universe. Have a good offseason, and we'll cover the transfer portal happenings in the next fortnight.
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