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Football fans will be treated to a championship Sunday doubleheader to determine the teams that will be headed to Super Bowl LVIII! Below you can read our matchups analysis article for the Chiefs vs. Ravens game to help make any fantasy lineup decisions for playoff leagues and DFS contests.
This AFC Championship matchup is a true clash of the titans. The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs haven't been as explosive offensively in 2023 but feature a stout defensive unit and have battled through the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills to put themselves in a position to return to the Super Bowl. Baltimore is led by the league's leading MVP contender Lamar Jackson and finished the regular season as the league's best team and the AFC's top seed. This has the makings of a classic!
Read our fantasy football breakdowns for this game -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into an exciting game during Conference Championship Sunday. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -4.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (20.25) vs. Ravens (24.25)
Pace: Chiefs (20th) vs. Ravens (27th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 25.9% Pass (8th), -5.4% Rush (17th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 32.1% Pass (5th), 18.3% Rush (1st)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -7.2% Pass (5th), -1.7% Rush (27th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -28.8% Pass (1st), -14.3% Rush (7th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Chiefs (20th) vs. Ravens (2nd)
PFF Rush D Grade: Chiefs (21st) vs. Ravens (14th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Chiefs (11th) vs. Ravens (6th)
EPA/Play Allowed: Chiefs (6th) vs. Ravens (2nd)
WEATHER: This game is forecasted to have some rain and mild wind, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson became the first player to throw and run for over 100 yards and two touchdowns, setting yet another record. After a slow start, he rallied his team at halftime and crushed the Texans. Kansas City's defense is among the best in the NFL and likely the best remaining after the Ravens, but they're no match for Jackson, who can beat you in many ways. He's the unquestioned conductor of this offense in a way that not many other signal-callers are. He'll get his shot to take down the champs and punch his ticket to the Super Bowl, proving the narrative that he can't win in the playoffs wrong. He's the QB1 this week in what could be a sneaky shootout.
the most valuable player in the national football league. lamar jackson is HERE. pic.twitter.com/ZlkMyW22n2
— Kyron Samuels (@kyronsamuels) January 21, 2024
Ravens TE
Mark Andrews sat last week out as a precaution. There were also rumors the team believed they could win without him, which might be viewed as cocky, but turned out to be true. Regardless of the reasoning, Isaiah Likely delivered once more with a nice grab in the end zone where he out-muscled the defender. Andrews is trending toward playing, which would somewhat cap the value of both tight ends, pushing them to fourth and fifth in the rankings.
UPDATE: Andrews is off the injury report and confirmed to play.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Pacheco pounded the rock 15 times for 97 yards and a score, taking the pressure off the passing attack. In total, they ran the ball 24 times for 146 yards, averaging over six yards per carry. He also chipped in as a receiver with a 14-yard reception. Baltimore's defense is a tougher test, but they'll make a concerted effort to establish the run to avoid becoming one-dimensional against the league leaders in sacks. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire as his only competition for touches, Pacheco sits as the RB3 this week, although there is some concern about his health given that he's yet to practice.
UPDATE: Pacheco got in a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. There doesn't seem to be much chance of him missing but the weekend will confirm his status. The Chiefs will be without their starting guard, Joe Thuney.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
King Kelce returned to the throne, at least for one night. And no we're not talking about his brother Jason, who stole the show by hammering back beers with Bills Mafia in the stands. He made the most of his six targets, hauling in five of them for 75 yards and two touchdowns, one of which he was completely wide open. It's worth noting that Buffalo was missing several key defenders, forcing some of their backups to cover Kelce. The Ravens are better equipped to slow him down, causing him to slot in as the TE2.
HISTORIC: Travis Kelce has gone 12 straight playoff games with 5+ catches and 11 straight playoff games with 50+ receiving yards.
Both streaks are the second longest all-time to the legendary Jerry Rice. pic.twitter.com/6oKo2s4jsI
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) January 27, 2024
Matchups We Hate
Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, & Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, BAL)
Jackson only aired it out 22 times because they had a massive lead in the second half. However, the real issue is that these three are all behind Zay Flowers and the tight ends in the pecking order on a run-heavy team. Beckham Jr. has declined during the latter part of their season and playoff run and Bateman has yet to prove he's above average, leaving Agholor, who found the end zone, as the best bet out of this bunch. It's a tougher week for depth at wide receiver because there are really only five reliable players. Agholor is in the mix as one of the next five.
Chiefs Secondary WRs
It's a similar story here, and one we've been telling for weeks. Outside of Rashee Rice, it's tough to trust the array of secondary wideouts. Whether it be Justin Watson, who failed to register a catch, Mecole Hardman Jr., who fumbled at the goal line, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had made meaningful contributions with two big receptions. Like Agholor, Valdes-Scantling would be the one to target, fitting into that WR6 to WR10 range.
UPDATE: Kadarius Toney went from a full practice on Wednesday to limited on Thursday and Friday, earning him a questionable tag. We'll see if he makes his way back onto the field.
Mecole Hardman left it all on the field tonight pic.twitter.com/t86g6VLM5H
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) January 22, 2024
Other Matchups:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes made the critical throws in the big moments to come out on the winning end of another classic with Josh Allen. It was a thriller. He scrambled when he needed to and played arguably his best game of the year. From a stats perspective, he threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns with 19 rushing yards, which is decent. It's unlikely he puts up 300 and three on the Ravens, who have been nearly impossible to score points against, but he's the QB2 behind Jackson because we know he's built for this time of year.
UPDATE: The Chiefs will be without their starting guard, Joe Thuney.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
Rice appeared to hurt his hamstring during their win on Sunday, landing him on the injury report this week. He practiced in full, so there's no concern about him missing their matchup, but it does explain his lower production in Buffalo. Kelce's impressive outing also impacted his output as typically he's led the way in targets, which he did not. You'd imagine Baltimore will make Kelce a focal point and has better personnel to do so, creating a bounce-back opportunity for Rice as the WR4.
Rashee Rice turned it ON after the bye week 💪 pic.twitter.com/9M8fjakamv
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 26, 2024
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
Flowers and Rice had almost the same disappointing stat line. Flowers's was 4/41. Despite leading the team in targets and receptions, he wasn't asked to do much because they won so convincingly and ran the ball for 229 yards. The Chiefs are a much better run defense, which increases the upside for Flowers, who is right in front of Rice as the WR3.
Justice Hill & Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)
As mentioned, the Ravens imposed their will with 42 carries for 229 yards and two scores. Unfortunately for these two, Jackson accounted for 100 of those yards and both touchdowns. Edwards, who rushed for 40 yards, was seen on the sideline later in the game in favor of Dalvin Cook, who iced the game with eight attempts for 23 yards. Meanwhile, Hill combined for 77 yards as a runner and receiver. Hill has the better role in a more competitive contest that will require additional passing attempts while Edwards has the goal line role, but neither belongs the top tier this week, which contains four tailbacks.
Notable Injuries
Skyy Moore (knee)
Isiah Pacheco (ankle/toe)
Kadarius Toney (hip)
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