March 25, 2016

Tony Peters analyzes four pitchers as fantasy baseball sleepers - guys playing for new teams and how that impacts their fantasy outlook for the 2016 season.

Another off-season complete, another game of musical chairs. Quite a lot of pitching talent has changed uniforms during this time, so RotoBaller is here with an update on four of the bigger names to don new garb.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool combines all our staff's ranks in one place. You can easily filter and export all sorts of rankings and tiers - mixed leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty ranks, keeper values, and more.

New Scene: What Does It Mean?

David Price, Red Sox (SP Rank: 7)

Old Team: Tigers/Blue Jays

David Price boasted a phenomenal 2015—and at the perfect time too—as he rode the season straight to a seven-year, $217-million contract with the Boston Red Sox. By sticking within the division where his career started and his 2015 season ended, Price can take advantage of that familiarity from a new perspective. Last year, he returned to the elite form that won him a Cy Young Award in 2012. While he will continue to be a third-tier ace, don't expect 2015 to become the new norm.

That might sound a bit negative, so allow me to clarify: Price is and will be a fantastic pitcher who has the talent to be a perennial Cy Young Award candidate. But prior to last year's ERA of 2.45, Price hadn't averaged lower than 3.00 since 2012—in fact, he averaged about 3.30 throughout that time period. Playing in the absolutely stacked AL East, there's nothing to suggest Price can keep his ERA under 3.00, so look for him to come in closer to his career 3.17 ERA against AL East opponents.

Price's teams last season, the Tigers and Blue Jays, ranked similarly defenses last year: all in the middle of the pack. Simply moving Hanley Ramirez, one of the worst defenders in baseball last season, to first base will help Boston provide the best defense it can behind Price. He'll still have the inept Pablo Sanavol at third base, but because he profiles more as a fly-ball pitcher, having an athletic outfield is far more important.

Any concerns about Price pitching at Fenway Park can be put to bed—he's a beast when pitching there. In 74 innings and 11 starts, Price is 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 60 strikeouts. Barring injury, Price is a lock for another season of more than 200 innings and strikeouts. While he could easily win 20 games, Boston's offensive inconsistencies last season make that far from a lock, another reason he looks at the elite starting pitching tier from the outside.

Johnny Cueto, Giants (SP Rank: 22)

Old Team: Reds/Royals

Johnny Cueto seemed like a lock to produce his typical above-average stats last season and cash in on the free agent market after, not unlike the previously mentioned Price. He was well on his way to accomplishing such a move, starting off 5-6 with a 2.62 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 120 strikeouts on a Reds team that would go on to lose 96? games. Then, a mid-season trade to the Royals threw his whole game off, and the inevitable doubts over his short and long-term health began to cascade in from the press. Cueto's six-year, $130-million contract with the Giants is certainly lucrative, but had he continued his Cincinnati ways, it could have been larger. (That's what she said. 😉

What does that mean for his new team in San Francisco? If you don't believe the health concerns, it means the Giants managed to do what fantasy owners should hope they can replicate: they bought low on a high-return asset. The season-and-a-half prior to his Royal funk, Cueto dominated, winning 27 while carrying a K/9 over 8.0, a H/9 under 7 and an ERA well south of 3.00. This was on one of the worst teams in baseball, no less.

Now Cueto is on one of the best teams in the game, as well as having one of the most pitcher-friendly parks as his home field. Such an advantage won't be wasted on Cueto, as he outperforms expectations in 2016 and takes full advantage of both. Keep an eye out for his for his Cy Young Award challenge yet again.

Aroldis Chapman, Yankees (RP Rank: 4)

Old Team: Reds

Aroldis Chapman will be getting his first taste of a non-Reds life this May when he returns from suspension to close out games for the Yankees. Over the past six seasons, Chapman has developed into the game's measuring stick for closers. Last season was yet another display of his power when he saved 33 games with a 1.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 116 strikeouts in only 66.1 innings.

The Yankees are using him as the primary head of their three-headed monster of a bullpen, which also includes last year's closer Andrew Miller, and setup man DB. This means more leads will reach Chapman—something that wasn't always true with the Reds. Trading one hitter-friendly ballpark for another will mean nothing to Chapman as his ludicrous 15.4 K/9 gets him out of almost every precarious situation he gets himself into. Even with his suspension, Chapman should have no problem recording at least 30 saves and striking out 100.

Ken Giles, Astros (RP Rank: 6)

Old Team: Phillies

Ken Giles has spent the past two seasons making a name for himself in the NL with a huge 11.7 K/9 and minuscule 1.56 ERA. After the Phillies traded closer Jonathan Palpelbon, Giles was given his first experience in the closer role. He ran away with it, saving 15 games in just over two months. The Astros, in need of a real closer with their rebuilding period over, went big (as Texans tend to do) and plucked Giles from a Phillies team not shopping their new young closer. The cost was huge on Houston's part, but fantasy owners will be happy they did.

As incredible as Giles has been so far in his career in the Majors, he has been slowly regressing in all the areas that have made him an elite reliever. His K/9 dropped from 12.61 to 11.19 while his BB/9 went up from 2.17 to 3.21, contributing to his ERA climbing up from 1.18 to 1.80. Consecutive seasons with a HR/9 under 0.30 have been key to his low ERA, and will continue be so if Giles is to keep his ERA under 2.00. Lucky for fantasy owners, ever since 2014 when he started the season by giving up zero home runs in 28.2 minor leagues innings, Giles has been able to suppress home runs with impressive consistency. With him having no real platoon splits to speak of and a new home park that favors pitchers, Giles should have no problem delivering for his fantasy owners.

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