X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Tommy Pham and Brian Dozier

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of Tommy Pham and Brian Dozier to determine whether they will right the ship for fantasy owners in 2018.

The Trade Deadline has passed, but the dust is yet to settle for fantasy purposes. The Brewers acquired Jonathan Schoop to apparently share two positions with Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas. You probably don't want to count on anybody in the timeshare until it's clear how often everyone will play. Jonathan Villar figures to get playing time in Baltimore, making him a potential SB play in fantasy.

Brandon Kintzler, Keone Kela, Brad Ziegler, and Jake Diekman join the ranks of speculative saves plays who may safely be returned to the waiver wire. The Astros gave up Ken Giles and some stuff for the right to deal with the media circus surrounding Roberto Osuna's ongoing criminal proceedings. Giles should be a safe play as Toronto's new closer, but I wouldn't touch Osuna in 2018. Leonys Martin and Cameron Maybin are bringing their competent yet unexciting stat lines to new homes as well.

Several other interesting players moved as well, including Adam Duvall, Wilson Ramos, Kevin Gausman, Ian Kinsler, and Chris Archer. However, this column will focus on Tommy Pham and Brian Dozier. Both have disappointed fantasy owners thus far, but only one has a noticeable decline in skills to match.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Tommy Pham (OF, TB) - 90% Owned

Pham went from 2017 MVP candidate to a .248/.331/.399 line with 14 HR and 10 SB (six CS) in 2018. Ouch. His batted ball profile suggests that his current power numbers are more ceiling than floor with his current approach, but his average should increase dramatically with the Rays.

Both of those trends have the same root cause: a microscopic fly ball rate. Only 26.4% of Pham's batted balls are classified as fly balls, limiting his power potential even with a 20.9% HR/FB (24.3% career). It's a shame, because Pham murders the few flies he does hit. They're averaging 95.4mph this season, a very comparable mark to 2017 (94.7mph), 2016 (98.7mph in 89 batted balls), and 2015 (95.7mph in 113). If he ever tried to join the fly ball revolution, Tampa could have an MVP candidate. Fantasy owners shouldn't look at Pham that way until it shows signs of happening, though.

That said, his tiny FB% should translate to a higher average than it has thus far. Flies have the lowest BABIP of any batted ball, and Pham barely hits any of them! He's especially adept at avoiding pop-ups (4.5% IFFB% this year, 4.8% career), the worst kind of fly for BABIP purposes. Yet Pham's .303 BABIP falls well short of his .339 career mark.

Part of the reason is what's going on with his grounders. They are underperforming their career averages (.241 vs. .264) despite a career high in ground ball exit velocity (91.4mph) and no particular vulnerability to the shift (57.1% Pull% on grounders this year). The only other reason would be a loss of foot speed, but his Statcast Sprint readings are virtually the same this year (28.6 ft./sec) as they were last season (28.7 ft./sec). League average is 27 ft./sec, so a BABIP rebound seems likely.

Pham's LD% is normal at 21.3%, but again he's underperforming his career BABIP (.630 vs. .702). There's nothing wrong with his average airborne exit velocity, and while his rate of Brls/BBE (8.2%) is down a bit relative to last year (9.3%) it's not terrible. Positive regression seems likely on both grounders and liners.

Baseball Savant's xStats agree with this conclusion. Pham's xBA (.279) and xSLG (.498) are both significantly higher than his totals to date, and neither gives him any credit for his above average speed. Pham's 24.5% K% also seems high based on his low chase rate (23.7%) and SwStr% (8.9%), though he is patient enough (40.9% Swing%) to strikeout more often than he should. At least he gets more than his fair share of walks (10.6% BB%).

Roster Resource currently projects Pham to hit sixth for his new team, but it's possible Tampa likes their new acquisition more than that. I see him hitting second, a position that would provide all of the counting stat opportunities the team can muster. The ballpark switch is a wash, with both venues registering as pitcher-friendly. All told, Pham should be able to hit .290 with at least some power for his new team. If you've held on this long, now is not the time to jump ship.

Verdict: Champ

 
Brian Dozier (2B, LAD) - 96% Owned

Unlike Pham, Dozier's disappointing .224/.305/.402 line is the result of an across-the-board loss of skills. There is no way he needs to be universally owned.

Dozier's .252 BABIP seems like an obvious candidate for positive regression, and it will probably improve to an extent. However, he hits a ton of fly balls (44.9% FB% this year, 43.4% career) with consistently high IFFB% marks (16.9% this year, 15.3% career). As a result, his awful .079 BABIP on fly balls is in keeping with his career mark of .090.

Dozier's swing is also allergic to line drives. His 15.2% LD% this season is simply not good, but his career rate of 19.2% isn't that much better. Regression to his career rate isn't a guarantee either, as he managed a rate of 15.9% across the entire 2016 campaign. His BABIP on line drives is significantly higher than it has been over his career (.750 vs. .668), so diminished batted ball luck is likely to offset any LD% increase with the Dodgers.

Dozier's .230 average on ground balls falls short of his career .252 mark, but he is no longer the player who earned that career number. Once upon a time, Dozier was fast. He had an above average Statcast Sprint Speed as recently as 2016 (27.8 ft./sec). However, it fell to 27.2 ft./sec last season before cratering to 26.6 ft./sec in his age 31 season. Furthermore, his 69.1% Pull% on ground balls dictates that he faces the shift more often than not. His current production is probably the new normal.

Fantasy owners could live with a spotty average if it came with 40 homers, but Dozier's pop has evaporated. Prior to this season, his average airborne exit velocities were decent in 2015 (92.5mph) and strong in both 2016 (94.1mph) and 2017 (94.4mph). It's fallen all the way to 91.1mph this season though, placing him among the likes of Jordy Mercer and Yangervis Solarte on the leaderboards. His 6% rate of Brls/BBE is also down precipitously compared to 2017 (8.2%) and 2016 (8.3%), while his Pull% on fly balls is down from his career average (33.1% vs. 37.1%).

Again, Baseball Savant's xStats concur with the conclusions above. As bad as his .224 average is, his xBA is even worse at .208. Likewise, his .402 slugging percentage looks good compared to his xSLG of .368. xStats don't ding him for being shift bait or losing speed either, so his true talent is likely lower than even their pessimistic totals.

Dozier has a reputation as a second half guy, but his career splits don't support it. He hits for a higher average in the second half (.242 vs. .256), but he has more homers in the first (91 vs. 76).

The only position at which Dozier would be an offensive upgrade for the Dodgers is pitcher. Roster Resource has him batting third for LA, but it wouldn't be surprising if he got swallowed by the Dodgers Depth Monster and just stopped playing altogether. You don't need to keep holding onto him.

Verdict: Chump

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Marvin Mims Jr.

Could be on Track for First 1,000-Yard Season
Jaylen Johnson

Chargers Place Jaylen Johnson on PUP List
Dereck Lively II

Undergoes Right-Foot Surgery Tuesday
Kendrick Bourne

Kayshon Boutte Fighting for Final Spots
Isaiah Collier

Logs a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Monday
DeMario Douglas

Kyle Williams "Locks" for Receiving Corps
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Finalizing Massive Extension
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Expected to Ease Anthony Richardson Sr. Back in
Devin Carter

Posts 17 Points Versus Suns
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 17 Points in Summer League Loss
Terry McLaurin

Undecided on Whether he Will Report to Training Camp
Colston Loveland

Says his Shoulder is 100 Percent
Harrison Ingram

has Impressive Outing Against Jazz
Sam Williams

has Potential to be Elite Edge Rusher
Shemar Stewart

Considering Going Back to College?
Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions Want Jahmyr Gibbs "More Involved" in Passing Game
Jordan Addison

Could be Facing Three-Game Suspension
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Kyle Filipowski

Records 35-Point Double-Double Against Spurs
Kel'el Ware

Dominates Against Celtics
Kon Knueppel

Gets Going Monday
Matas Buzelis

Puts Up 28 Points in Win Over Pacers
Reed Sheppard

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
Paul George

Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Najee Harris

Likely to Miss Time at Start of Training Camp
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Collin Morikawa

Misses The Cut at Genesis Scottish Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 13th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooks Koepka

Finishes Tied For 32nd at LIV Andalucia
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For 34th at Genesis Scottish Open
Jason Day

Misses The Cut at John Deere Classic
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Cam Taylor-Britt

has Benefited From Addition of Al Golden
Rome Odunze

Could Take Off in Year 2
RJ Harvey

to Get "Significant" Work in Broncos' Passing Game
Jackson Powers-Johnson

More Comfortable Heading into Year 2
Luke McCaffrey

In Line for Larger Role?
Braelon Allen

Jets Viewing Braelon Allen as Long-Term Starter?
Joel Embiid

Participating in Partial Basketball Activities
Victor Wembanyama

Officially Cleared to Return After Blood-Clot Recovery
Mike Williams

Heading to PUP List
Garrett Wilson

Lands Historic Deal
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF