Champ or Chump: Sammy Long

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of San Francisco Giants P Sammy Long in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?

With news breaking that Wander Franco would make his much-anticipated big league debut tonight, we're reminded what fantasy managers look for in a rookie. We want advanced physical tools, including power and speed for hitters and sexy velocity and spin rate numbers for pitchers. We look for strong MiLB performances as well. We want guys with impressive prospect pedigrees and glowing scouting reports. In a word, we want Wander Franco.

Unfortunately, everybody can't be Wander Franco. Sammy Long is about as far away from Wander Franco as possible, drafted 540th overall in the 18th round by the Rays in the 2016 Amateur draft. His velocity topped out in the high-80s as a prospect, and the Rays released him in 2018 when he didn't respond well to a LOOGY role.

There's just one thing: Long has produced at every level he's ever been in, including his first MLB start against the Philadelphia Phillies on June 20 (W, 6 IP, 6 K, 2 ER). Production is all that matters in the fantasy game, and Long could do a lot to help fantasy rotations in the coming months as a contact management specialist with excellent K-BB% numbers. Let's learn more about him.

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Long Road to the Show

Long never lit up the radar gun, but his amateur career earned him numerous accolades including All-League in baseball in 2012, Capital Valley Conference MVP in 2013, and both Western Athletic Conference Freshman of the Year and Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American as a college athlete in 2014. The name of his game was keeping his WHIP as low as possible, and he ranks third in batting average against for his career at Sacramento State (2014-15).

Long began pitching professionally in his draft year of 2016, but he didn't work that many innings due to the role Tampa Bay was grooming him for. The sample size never exceeded 26 IP at a single stop or 31 1/3 IP for an entire season. When Tampa cut him shortly before the 2018 season began, Long took EMT classes to pursue a career as a fireman and studied Communications at Sacramento State University. He put baseball behind him.

He had second thoughts about that after skipping the entire 2018 season, ditching the sidearm delivery that the Rays gave him in favor of his natural over-the-top motion. He also rededicated himself to a training regimen at Optimum Athletes, increasing his velocity to 93 mph while sharpening his curve. The White Sox gave him a shot at Single-A Kannapolis in 2019 with 30 games (15 of which were starts), and he pitched to a 3.06 ERA over 97 IP. His 3.09 xFIP suggested that the performance was real.

Long has also consistently flashed contact management skills as his HR/FB of 7.2% that season was his highest mark at any minor league stop. Better yet, Long posted a 28.7 K% against a 7.2 BB% for a 21.5 K-BB%. K-BB% is one of the most predictive stats available for pitchers, and Long was always great at it. Many of the samples are small, but take a look at how he did at every MiLB stop:

Outside of his final season with Tampa Bay, these are strong ratios that include stints at Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB this season. We still don't have a lot of data to work with since he skipped 2018 and the pandemic canceled the 2020 MiLB season, but there's some intriguing stuff here.

Digging into Big League Numbers

Long has a 4.20 ERA over 15 IP this season, but his actual performance has been better than that whether you like to use FIP (2.50), xFIP (3.87), SIERA (3.24), or xERA (2.18). The xERA is particularly encouraging because it means that Long deserves his 5.3% HR/FB based on his exit velocities and launch angles allowed, adding credence to his minor league resume that suggests skill as a contact manager.

Long's arsenal also suggests a sustainable contact management profile. While all the talk these days is of "SpiderTack" driving elevated spin rates and strikeouts, Long goes the other way with a fastball that's only averaging 2,102 RPM. It's putrid for strikeouts with a 2.2 SwStr%, but great at limiting damage on balls in play with an xBA of .215. It's also a strike 58.4% of the time, ensuring that Long can get ahead in the count. Put another way, it's the Kyle Hendricks path to success.

Long also features a curve and a change. His curve is okay for strikeouts with a 14 SwStr%, 46.5 Zone%, and 43.5% chase rate, but it really shines with its .040 xBA and actual batting average allowed of .000. His change is a more traditional wipeout pitch with a 24.3 SwStr%, 45.9 Zone%, and 45% chase rate. Long has thrown six sliders on the season as well, but he's primarily a three-pitch pitcher and they all get results. Things will only get better when his 51.7% strand rate starts drifting upward.

The Next Big Thing?

Fantasy managers may be leery of trusting a pitcher with little track record, zero prospect pedigree, and a .243 BABIP. However, Long maintained a BABIP of .274 in his largest MiLB season and has been known as a WHIP minimizer since his high school days. He also seems to be able to limit his HR/FB and pitches in a favorable home park for a bit of extra cushion in that regard. The Giants have been able to make something out of nothing in the cases of both Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani, so they have a favorable track record for reclamation projects as well.

There is some talk of Long following an opener in the future. In fact, he made his MLB debut that way. It would hurt his fantasy value in QS formats, but may give him more win potential. Either way, the 26-year-old has the K-BB% to stick in the major leagues and do good things on a surprising San Francisco ball club. He's only rostered in 6% of Yahoo! leagues, so why not scoop him up while everybody else is thinking about Wander Franco? He could be a Champ for years to come.

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