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And So It Begins...
The wait is over, the 2015 fantasy baseball season is officially up and running. Not exactly confident in the catcher you drafted? Looking for a reliable backup? RotoBaller has got you covered with analysis on three catchers who may be free agents in your league who you can target off the waiver wire.
Waiver Wire Adds for Catchers
Russell Martin, Toronto Blue Jays
Owned in 79% of Yahoo Leagues, Owned in 29% of FleaFlicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Add in Most Formats
ANALYSIS: One of the leagues models of consistency as a catcher over the pasts eight years has been Russell Martin. You may have heard that Martin is expected to have a decent regression in his BABIP compared to his impressive .336 last season, and you'd be crazy to argue otherwise. That caused Russel's fantasy stock to drop significantly, and what a lot of people didn't place a whole lot of stock in was his change in scenery from Pittsburgh to Toronto.
While he won’t hit .290 like last season, there were some positive signs to look into that might allow Martin to return solid value in the position. Martin’s walk rate has improved the past three years, rising from 10.9% in 2012 to 11.5% in 2013 to 12.8% last season. With better plate discipline typically leading to higher averages, this growth is substantial even in leagues that do not count walks. A reduction in strikeout rate is also a positive trend for average growth, and Martin managed to lower his K-rate from 21.3% in 2013 to 17% last year, below the league’s 20.4% average. He also has plus speed for a catcher.
Martin’s counting stats should be in line for a big upgrade due to the transition to Toronto. He will be batting second, behind Jose Reyes and in front of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, which should lead to Martin scoring 100 or so runs and a healthy RBI total. Moving to Rogers Centre should also help Martin’s power numbers, as should the increased playing time afforded to him by a move to the AL which comes with the chance to DH on his days off from catching. Not to mention PNC park is arguably the worst power park for right-handed hitters, especially when compared to Rogers Centre and it's 110 RHH homer park factor (4th best in the MLB).
Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals
Owned in 58% of Yahoo Leagues, Owned in 33% of FleaFlicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Add in Most Formats
ANALYSIS: Wilson Ramos is hitting seventh in one of the leagues better lineups. Granted, seventh isn't all that sexy for fantasy value, but if Ramos comes through with the breakout season a lot of people are calling for, he could find himself hitting 5th or 6th quickly. Wilson won't hurt fantasy manager's batting average all that much, as he should fall pretty close to his career AVG of .269.
Ramos hasn't been all that reliable over his career, finishing with just 664 plate appearances in the last two seasons combined. But that makes his upside more attractive: if he can just stay on the field for the majority of the season, his rate of production from the past few years almost guarantees he will finish the season as a top 10 catcher. In those 664 PA he's racked up 27 home runs with an impressive home run per fly ball rate of 21.8%. It's hard to rely on a guy with his injury history as a primary backstop, but he's more than likely the best backup available on your waiver wire, and he has great upside. Even at conservative projections of 16 HR in just 428 PA with a .269 average, Ramos would likely be a top 10 position guy.
Mike Zunino, Seattle Mariners
Owned in 41% of Yahoo Leagues, Owned in 44% of FleaFlicker Leagues
BALLER MOVE: Add in Deeper Formats
ANALYSIS: Mike Zunino was a popular upside pick for how late he was going in drafts, if he was even drafted. A top prospect just a few years ago, Zunino is poised for another great power season of +/- 20 HR. Last season he had a great year offensively, racking up 22 bombs and driving in 60 runs. The only issue was his atrocious batting average, as he finished 2014 with a dismal .199. Better plate discipline and batting average can be expected within reason, especially when you consider this will be his second full season in the majors and he was sort of rushed through the minors.
That brings me to my bold prediction - Mike Zunino will hit 30 HR with an AVG above .225. This former third overall pick from the 2012 draft will start to settle in at the plate which will help his K% and BB%. He should also have another year close to .200 for ISO. Fantasy managers should only really consider starting Zunino if they're willing to take the possible damage to their AVG, but he tore it up in spring this year hitting .352 with three doubles and three home runs.
