X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Buyer Beware? Hot Starts and Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis (Week 7)

Connor Wong - Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers, Catcher Rankings

Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 7 (2024), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?

With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver wire recommendations will be filling the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend so be sure to check out all the great articles. But as we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer beware element to our decisions.

Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should they make an investment in certain players, but also how much of an investment should be made to acquire their services.

Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend that deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your own teams considering the context, but each deserves a closer look based on their recent performance.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins

Willi Castro has proved to be the super-utility spark that the Minnesota Twins have needed to roll off an 11-game winning streak and tie for the AL Central lead. Castro played third base until Jose Miranda came up. He played shortstop while Carlos Correa was injured, and now he is playing center field with Byron Buxton landing on the IL. Along the way, he has accumulated a .282/.348/.466 line with a couple of home runs and three steals, plus 15 runs. The playing time for Castro looks secure considering the state of the Twins' roster, but I'm not convinced the elite-level performance will follow.

The first thing that jumps out for Castro is his strikeout rate and walk rate, particularly as they compare to 2023. His 29% strikeout rate is five percentage points higher than last year and his 6.9% walk rate is 1.5 percentage points lower. He is making the same amount of contact as last season, but his first pitch strike percentage and his called strike percentage have all jumped up. In addition to those, Castro's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .397, the sixth-highest number in the league. The league average for 2024 is currently .288.

"But Willi Castro is fast, and fast players have higher BABIPs!" you scream. Yes, that's true, and it's true Castro did have 33 steals last season compared to five times caught stealing. But is he actually that fast? His 27.9 ft/sec sprint speed is just 16th among shortstops and would be 31st among center fielders. He was more of an opportunistic base stealer last season rather than a burner, so I'm not counting on his speed saving a bunch of hits on would-be outs going forward.

 

Tyler Nevin, Oakland Athletics

Tyler Nevin is essentially a journeyman at this point. He has played for three teams in his four Major League seasons and has a career .229/.323/.344 slash line as a very part-time player. He has nine career home runs and one career stolen base (four of those homers and that steal are from 2024), so the fact that he is crushing the ball right now in a full-time role for Oakland must give us some hesitation. Nevin was a 38th-overall pick back in 2015, but until now he has not done anything to prove he is the batter he's been in 2024.

So far, Nevin is hitting .313/.370/.482 after coming over from Baltimore to Oakland. He is playing full-time because of injuries to Zack Gelof and J.D. Davis and Nick Allen was recently sent back to the minors instead of Nevin, assuring his playing time for now. Nevin looks good on paper this season, but it looks completely unsustainable when we start digging into the underlying numbers.

Nevin's BABIP is .361 (career .284), and his walk rate dropped from 10.8% last season to 5.4% this year. But perhaps his biggest problem this year is his lack of loft and lift in his batted balls. His launch angle is down five percentage points from last season (13.7 degrees to 8.9 degrees) and he is hitting the ball on the ground 45% of the time. The balls he does hit in the air have an outlier-like 18% home run to fly ball rate (10.6% is average). All of it adds up to some negative regression coming and I wont' be investing this weekend.

 

Connor Wong, Boston Red Sox

You won't find many players with a wilder discrepancy between what Connor Wong is actually doing to date at the plate and what the projection systems say he will do the rest of the season. Currently, Wong is slashing .351/.380/.595 with five home runs in 22 games. Steamer projections look him to hit just .241/.292/.400 for the rest of the season with only nine more home runs. What are factors leading to such a wide gap in actual versus expected performance? In reality, there are many.

First, Wong has an unsustainable .396 BABIP through the first six weeks of the season. That number would be tied with Willi Castro for the sixth-highest rate in the league if Wong had enough plate appearances to qualify. There is a reason why players from the Rockies, Red, and Phillies make up most of the top ten on that list. They play in home parks that are conducive to high hit rates and extreme offense. Fenway Park has a 105 park factor for hits in 2024, meaning it's just 5% above league average this year (and is 14% below average in home run park factor).

Wong's real numbers compared to his actual statistics are quite glaring as well, but paint a clear picture of what the projections systems are trying to show. Wong's xBA is just .248 and his xSLG is just .442 on the season. That's largely driven by a decrease in barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity, and line drives since last year. Catcher has mostly been a wasteland position this season, but there is a case to be made that Connor Wong joins them all there very soon.

 

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

After spending the 2023 season in the Korean Baseball Organization (and dominating over there), there has been a lot chatter that his time over there "fixed" Erick Fedde, which has led to his dynamic resurgence in 2024 with the Chicago White Sox. After never striking out more than 8.6 batters per nine innings in his first six Major League seasons, he is all the way up to 10.1 this year, mirroring his 10.4 from the KBO last year. His walks are at 2.34 per nine (3.68 for his career), and his 5.81 ERA in 2022 has been chopped in half so far this year (2.60).

Those are all good things, right? He will have a tough time winning many games with the White Sox, but those ratios and strikeouts are pristine. Many have pointed to the updated pitch mix for Fedde as a reason for his success. He has basically minimized his fastball usage this year (22%), and has significantly increased his sinker-slider combination (more than 59% of his pitches come from these two) and added a changeup (18%) that didn't exist in his first MLB stint. However, despite all the positive changes, there are some signs that his performance could be driven by a bit of luck.

First, Fedde's BABIP allowed is a very-low .253, or 50 points below his career average. In fact, that number is top 30 among all starting pitchers Second, when Fedde does allow men on base, he is simply not letting them score. His 91.2% left-on-base percentage is the sixth-best in baseball, a full 20 points better than league average. That number is sure to regress, which will drag his ERA down with it. Fedde's xERA (3.20) and his FIP (4.00) are not terrible by any means, but neither scream "Ace!" when looking deeper into Fedde's performance.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualifies 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer but Still a Long Shot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Tyler Reddick

Has a Lot of Work To Do To Be Competitive in Mexico
AJ Allmendinger

Struggling to Find Speed in Mexico City
Chris Buescher

Says Car is "Bad Fast" Heading into Mexico City Race
Michael McDowell

Confident Heading into Viva Mexico 250
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Hunter Brown

s Records 12 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Royce Lewis

to be Placed on Injured List
Byron Buxton

Exits Early on Saturday
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF