MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/30/2025)

May 30, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/30/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Marcell Ozuna, Isaac Paredes, Oneil Cruz, and more.

We have a jam-packed slate of MLB games on tap today. I will do my best to find some winners for us on a day when we have so many options to choose from. Friday slates can be tough for this reason, as truncated slates tend to be a bit easier to hone in on. We will look at some solid hitter matchups tonight as well as hitter-friendly environments. We at RotoBaller have been extremely hot in this article over the last few weeks, so let's keep the trend going tonight.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep to break even or make a profit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, May 30, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/30/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, May 30:

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
• Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
• Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros
• Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I may be a day late on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as he went yard last night, but I had him pegged for a home run tonight early in the evening last night, so we are going to keep him here. Vladdy has been raking recently and now has two home runs and an .890 OPS over the previous week.

This should come as no surprise, as his power and overall hitting metrics are absolutely off the charts. Guerrero has posted an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph, a hard hit rate of 39.3%, and a barrels/PA mark of 9.9%. This ranks him in the 92nd, 89th, and 95th percentiles, respectively. Not too shabby at all, one might say.

He has also performed well against left-handed pitching this season, as noted by his 1.012 OPS and three home runs. While at home, Vladdy has also been superb, given his .858 OPS versus a .769 OPS on the road.

He will be up against Athletics' left-hander Jeffrey Springs. On the surface, Springs has decent numbers with a 3.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but a deeper dive shows some major flaws in his game. On the season, Springs has allowed a total of nine home runs. Eight of these home runs have come against right-handed hitters.

He has also allowed a home run in eight of his 11 starts in 2025.

Again, these numbers should not be all that surprising as he has allowed a barrels/BBE mark of 6.3% and a 23.9% mark for balls hit 95+ mph. These rank him in the fifth and 45th percentiles, respectively. When Springs is done, Vladdy will have a couple of opportunities against an Athletics' bullpen that has allowed a total of 29 home runs to opposing hitters, which ranks fifth-worst in the league.

Marcell Ozuna OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Marcell Ozuna has been a force for the Braves thus far in 2025. Overall, Ozuna has smacked nine home runs while posting a .892 OPS. He has also been performing well recently, as noted by his 1.044 OPS and three home runs over the previous two weeks.

Ozuna has also put up great power metrics this season. He is currently posting a 92.4 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile of the league. Additionally, he has posted a 34.6% hard hit rate, ranking him in the 63rd percentile of the league.

He will be up against Boston Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito tonight, and that should also be good news. On the season, Ozuna has posted a .913 OPS with eight home runs against right-handed pitching. He has also performed well at home in Truist Park, as noted by his .940 OPS with four home runs.

His opponent, Lucas Giolito, however, has not been too sharp in 2025. Overall, Giolito has posted an ERA north of 5.00 and has allowed a total of five home runs across just five starts. He has been especially awful against right-handed hitting, given that he has allowed a .314 BAA with two home runs. The metrics also tell us that Giolito is struggling.

Overall, Giolito has allowed a 24.7% mark for balls hit 95+ mph and an average exit velocity of 82.6 mph. These rank him in the 35th and 33rd percentiles, respectively. The weather in Atlanta should also be warm, which gives us an additional boost for Ozuna here.

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Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I understand that Isaac Paredes was mentioned in this piece yesterday by our good friend Casey Wilson, but that is alright, as I had him pegged for a dinger early in the evening last night, similar to Vladdy above. Paredes has been a major source of power in the Houston Astros' lineup this season. So far, he has mashed 11 home runs while posting an .829 OPS on the season.

While his power metrics do not necessarily back up his home runs total this season, he is posting an .880 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers and has also posted an .890 OPS at home this season, which is exactly where he will be tonight against Tampa Bay Rays' right-hander Ryan Pepiot.

Pepiot has allowed a total of 10 home runs on the season. He has also allowed multiple home runs in three of his starts. As far as recency is concerned, Pepiot has also allowed a dinger in two of his previous three starts. After Pepiot is done, Paredes will face a Rays' bullpen that has been decent in terms of ERA.

However, they have allowed 24 home runs to opposing hitters, which ranks them 11th-worst in the league.

ISAAC. PAREDES. LET'S. GO. pic.twitter.com/Nh3cWZ51P1

— Houston Astros (@astros) May 18, 2025

Oneil Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The final call of the night is for our boy, Oneil Cruz. Oneil Cruz has been quite the marvel in 2025 as he has now racked up 12 total home runs while posting an .841 OPS. He has also posted a ridiculous 1.168 OPS with a whopping four home runs over the previous seven days. Quite frankly, the dude is en feugo.

The power metrics are also something to marvel at, quite honestly. On the season, Cruz has posted a hard hit rate of 48.2%, which ranks him in the 100th percentile of the league. This means he is the top dog in this category. Not surprisingly, Cruz has also posted a 97.2 mph average exit velocity, which, yep, you guessed it, also ranks him in the 100th percentile of the league.

The guy is an absolute phenomenon.

He has also hit right-handed pitching much better than he has left-handers, as noted by his .971 OPS vs. righties this season. He will be up against San Diego Padres right-hander Nick Pivetta, who has been known to allow some pop to opposing hitters.

In 2025, Pivetta has allowed six home runs, and since 2023, Pivetta has given up a total of 57 dingers. Thus far in 2025, he has allowed an average exit velocity north of 80 mph and a ball hit 95+ mph mark of 23.9%.

Oneil Cruz just hit this ball 122.9 mph.

That is the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era. pic.twitter.com/dZYilTHie1

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) May 25, 2025

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