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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/10/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
The weather looks much clearer across the nation today, and with temperatures heating up, we should start to see even more balls leave the yard! That's my way of saying that it's another great day for dingers, and I'm back to bring you my favorite home run prop bets for today's MLB contests.
On this page, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 10, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks and are subject to change throughout the day. I like to target guys with higher odds in these articles, so keep that in mind when reading!
Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best odds, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also essential to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since they're tough to win.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/10/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Saturday, May 10:
- Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays
- Max Kepler, Philadelphia Phillies
- Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Ryan O'Hearn, Baltimore Orioles
- Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels
- Jorge Polanco, Seattle Mariners
Jonathan Aranda OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is not a player I would usually envision myself writing up for a home run prop most days, but the Rays' cleanup hitter has quietly hit five home runs already this season and has some of the best splits against RHP in the major leagues.
Aranda is slashing .353/.429/.635 this season against right-handers with a .282 ISO. I bet you didn't realize that, considering he's a platoon player and playing for a team that few outside of Florida care about.
We have some nice hitting weather at George M. Steinbrenner Field today with temperatures expected in the mid-to-high 80s and 12 mph winds blowing out. I get nervous about betting on guys like Brandon Lowe and Aranda with how Tampa sticks to its platoons if a left-handed reliever comes into the game, but I'm going for it anyway, as even three at-bats against Tobias Myers or a righty reliever might be worth it.
Myers is nothing special and has struggled with LHH in his first two starts this season, in addition to showing traditional splits last year as well.
Max Kepler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+540 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Let's go after Tanner Bibee, shall we? The Cleveland right-hander has been pitching well below expectations this season, allowing a 10.6% barrel rate and 90.7% Z-Contact%. He's allowed nine home runs this season already, with five of those coming to lefties.
So, we are smashing the button on Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber, right? Nah, that would be too easy! Remember, we are chasing the big odds, and we can take a shot at another power lefty in Kepler for much longer odds instead.
After a slow start, Kepler is up to five home runs on the season, with four of those bombs coming in the last two weeks. He's a dead pull hitter at 52% Pull% and has a 90% hard/medium contact rate. His power could play well here in Cleveland, where we can sometimes get a little wind tunnel action going out to right field.
Andy Pages OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)
When you think of the Dodgers' big bats, you think of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts, right? But Andy Pages has been red hot now for the Dodgers over the last two weeks and is hitting for power with six home runs now on the year.
Andy Pages, last 14 games...
61 PA, .407/.426/.712, 9 XBH, 4 HR, 3 SB, 14.8% K#LetsGoDodgerspic.twitter.com/QmmlRInVP3
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) May 8, 2025
We saw some absurd offense in this game last night with the two teams combining for 25 total runs and a bunch of balls leaving the yard. The roof was open, and it was in the 90s at gametime. It should be similar weather tonight, and therefore, I think we should expect more offense.
Corbin Burnes takes the bump for Arizona. He is coming off an IL stint and has struggled this season. He's a reverse splits pitcher, and that has held this season as well as he's allowed four home runs to righties and a .517 SLG. Go ahead and bet on some other big bats in this game, but I am in love with the odds we are getting on Pages here on FanDuel!
(UPDATE - the roof is CLOSED, but I still like the bats in this game!)
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Ryan O'Hearn OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jack Kochanowicz sticks out as a pitcher to target tonight. He gives up a ton of contact (12.3% K% is second worst behind Kyle Gibson), and much of that contact this season has been loud. His 10.3% barrel rate is the fifth worst on the board tonight, and his xERA of 5.21 is nearly identical to his SIERA of 5.22.
Kochanowicz has some dramatic splits, too, with lefties slashing .333/.391/.590 against him with a .416 wOBA. Six of the seven home runs he has surrendered have been to lefties as well.
Enter Ryan O'Hearn, the ultimate "bad RHP killer." O'Hearn only whiffs 15% of the time against righties while walking nearly 10% of the time. His .284 ISO vs. RHP is the best mark of any Baltimore slugger, and he's at 91% hard/medium contact, which trails only Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson.
The wind is blowing out tonight only around 5 mph, but Angel Stadium has the sixth-best park factor in terms of home runs allowed to left-handed hitters. I think we could see O'Hearn tally his eighth home run tonight.
Taylor Ward OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportsbook)
It's hard to click on Angels hitters these days, whether it's in DFS or for bets, but how can we pass up a chance to take a shot against Kyle Gibson? The one Angels hitter who has shown some signs of life lately is Ward. Despite hitting just .185 this year, Ward has two home runs in his last four games and now has eight on the season.
Taylor Ward two-run homer! pic.twitter.com/pdaeVqGRSS
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 9, 2025
Ward has a home run swing, putting the ball in the air nearly 50% of the time. And Gibson has allowed six home runs through just his first two starts with Baltimore this year. I usually like targeting some swing-and-miss power bats against high contact pitchers, and no one is striking out fewer hitters than Kyle Gibson right now (11% K%).
Jorge Polanco OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's been eight games without a home run for Polanco, so I think he's "due" for one by now, right? Ha, I joke because I don't play the "he's due" stuff, but I do love the way that Polanco is crushing RHP this season, and I want to target Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis with a left-handed power bat tonight.
The obvious choice would be catcher Cal Raleigh, who has now smacked 12 dingers on the season, but he's starting to get priced like Aaron Judge on the books for home runs, and he strikes out too much for my liking at those odds.
But for twice the odds tonight, we can target Polanco, who is making elite contact this season with only a 10% K% vs. RHP and an impressive .372 ISO.
Francis has surrendered 11 home runs already this season, with eight of those coming against lefties. This is traditionally a pitchers' park, but we do have some wind blowing out tonight to aid the hitters a bit.
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