ADP Arbitrage - Best-Ball Draft Values

July 11, 2020

Phil Clark compares ADP values at QB, RB, WR, and TE for 2020 best-ball fantasy football leagues to find undervalued players to target.

As we continue our progression toward the highly-anticipated regular season, the team at RotoBaller continues to generate news, data-fueled analysis, and updated rankings that provide your pathway to effective draft preparations and roster modifications. That includes our commitment toward supplying you with the resources that you need in order to construct teams that will contain a favorable percentage of productive components in the Best-Ball format.

You are already aware that the decisions you make during each round of your Best-Ball drafts are critical. You are presented with the advantage of avoiding all forms of in-season roster management. However, that also leaves you without a waiver wire if your players are sidelined, or are unable to deliver the level of production that you envisioned. This article will improve your chances of maximizing each selection by locating players that should surpass the expectations of their current ADPs.

These performers currently remain available beyond Round 7 in most drafts. But their eventual output could provide the opportunity to bypass other players of the same position who are being selected earlier during your draft process. Any doubts regarding the importance of capitalizing on each opportunity throughout the entire selection process should be eviscerated by a reminder that Lamar Jackson (ADP116), Austin Ekeler (ADP75). DeVante Parker (ADP194), D.J. Chark (ADP234), and Darren Waller (ADP158) were all available after Round 7 in FFPC drafts last August.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones (QB14/ADP114) or Deshaun Watson (QB5/ADP68)

Some owners are unable to resist the temptation of seizing Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes early in their drafts, while others prefer to target one of the four quarterbacks with ADPs in Round 5-6. (Dak Prescott/Kyler Murray/Russell Wilson/Watson). But if you are willing to exercise patience until Round 9, Jones provides a low-end QB1 alternative that allows you to address the critical running back and wide receiver positions until that point in your draft process.

Jones exploded onto the landscape during the first start of his rookie season, by generating 336 yards through the air, 28 more on the ground, and also producing four touchdowns.

We really let Daniel Jones do this to us...

Adding on the Matt Gay miss, was a very rough day for #Bucs fans... pic.twitter.com/gHtNXgvrkI

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@EverythingTB) June 8, 2020

That solidified his status as the Giants’ starter for 11 of the team's final 13 matchups, although an ankle issue cemented Jones to the sidelines in Weeks 14-15. He still assembled 3,027 yards, (232.8 per game), and finished eighth in play-action completion percentage during his (69.4%). Jones also ranked third in aggressiveness according to NextGenStats (22.4), and finished sixth among quarterbacks with 21.5 rushing yards per game. It was also encouraging that he tied for fifth in passing touchdowns after ascending into the lineup.

Jones also finished seventh among signal-callers in rushing yards after he elevated into the starting lineup.

His ball security represents an area that needs improvement, as he tossed 12 interceptions, and accumulated 18 fumbles. But Jones will benefit from the presence of elite playmaker Saquon Barkley, who finished seventh among backs with 5.6 targets per game. Jones’ three-pronged arsenal at wide receiver can deliver respectable production in any given matchup (Darius Slayton/Golden Tate/Sterling Shepard), while Evan Engram is a highly skilled weapon whenever he eludes his injury-laden history (14 missed games). This should instill confidence that Jones will sustain low-end QB1 production, while only requiring the investment of his Round 9 ADP.

Watson can still function as an asset for your roster. But he will enter Week 1 with challenges at wide receiver that are not shared by other quarterbacks being selected in Rounds 5-6. Murray will benefit from the arrival of Watson’s former teammate DeAndre Hopkins, while Prescott received an enormous injection of talent (CeeDee Lamb) that only adds to his potent collection of options. The 31-year old Wilson continues to thrive despite the constraints of Seattle’s offensive approach and will also operate with Tyler Lockett and a rapidly improving D.K. Metcalf.

Unfortunately for Watson, he will be performing with an enormous obstacle that was constructed by his own head coach. Bill O’Brien extracted his most critical weapon, which will force Watson to operate without an option that offers the proficiency and consistency that he received from Hopkins. Houston's refurbished unit will deliver the potential for speed. But there is risk in presuming that his remaining options can remain on the field with enough consistency to deploy it.

Will Fuller’s big-play potential has consistently been circumvented by his inability to evade lingering health issues, which has propelled his running total of missed games to 22 during his first four seasons. Brandin Cooks accumulated 348 targets, 223 receptions, and 3,459 yards from 2016-2018. However, his forgettable 2019 season included his lowest target (72), reception (42), and yardage totals (583) since 2014. He has also absorbed five concussions during his career.  Randall Cobb has only surpassed 1,000 yards once in nine seasons (2014), while there is no justification in expecting Kenny Stills to elevate beyond his usual inconsistency. Watson will also perform behind an offensive line that finished just 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass protection rankings and provides reasons for concern beyond left tackle Laremy Tunsil.

Running Backs

Zack Moss (RB46/ADP120) or Devin Singletary (RB25/ADP48)  

This is not a dismissal of Singletary’s elusiveness or his accomplishments as a rookie. He overcame an early-season hamstring issue to finish sixth among all backs in rushing yards from Weeks 9-15 (79.6 per game/4.8 per carry). Singletary also performed on 72.4% of the offensive snaps, while the eternally youthful Frank Gore registered an average of 27.5% during Singletary’s most proficient span.

When it became apparent that the Bills were not including Gore on their 2020 roster, this fueled speculation that the 5’7”, 200-pound Singletary might function as Buffalo’s lead back during his second season. This would have vaulted him into top-15 RB consideration if it had occurred.

However, his value plunged when Buffalo secured Moss with the 86th overall pick in April’s draft. The injection of Moss into the equation has ensured the continuation of a two-man touch distribution within Buffalo’s backfield. It also creates the likelihood that he will exceed the usage that was attained by the 37-year old Gore in 2019 (179 touches/166 attempts/35% snap count).

It also creates a considerable incentive for bypassing Singletary at his lofty ADP. The second-year back is still being selected in Round 4, when wide receivers Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Metcalf are attainable for your rosters. Moss remains available seven rounds later, even though he appears destined to procure a significant workload.

The 5’10”, 200-pound Moss assembled 3,685 yards on 628 attempts during his final three seasons with Utah (5.87 per attempt). He also produced 36 rushing touchdowns during that span, while accruing 1,400+ yards from scrimmage during both seasons in which he performed during 13 matchups (1,416/1,804). He became the first player in school history to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in three different seasons, while Moss was also named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year during 2019. He also fumbled just one time in 2019, while losing a total of four during his tenure as a starter.

New Bills RB Zack Moss was elite at making defenders miss in 2019 pic.twitter.com/JFFaGWs3Dp

— PFF (@PFF) April 30, 2020

He is not a burner. But he did improve his 40 time in March (4.52), after managing just 4.65 during the NFL Combine. He is a physical runner who moves with sufficient power to commandeer opportunities in the red zone. This should relegate Singletary to third among Bills in red zone attempts for a second consecutive year. Singletary's 18 carries near the goal line trailed both Gore (25) and Josh Allen (21) in 2019, and Singletary could encounter difficulty reaching his 2019 total. Buffalo GM Brandon Beane has equipped Allen with the most talented cluster of receivers since his arrival in 2018 (Stefon Diggs/John Brown/Cole Beasley). But the Bills should still rely heavily on their ground game when positive game scripts develop. This should occur with frequency as Buffalo’s formidable defensive unit should keep all matchups close.

There are too many factors in this restructured backfield that will place restraints on Singletary's involvement. That should compel owners to avoid him at his ADP (48). But Moss presents appealing value at his Round 11 ADP.  

Jordan Howard (RB40/ADP100) or Le’Veon Bell (RB22/ADP38)

As your drafts advance into Round 9, you can locate Howard among your available options. He was the 10th back to be selected during the 2016 NFL Draft, then was promptly entrusted with 252 attempts as a rookie. He capitalized on that massive workload by finishing second only to Ezekiel Elliott in rushing yards during his first season (1,313). He also eclipsed 100 yards in seven different contests which propelled him to ninth in standard scoring. His rushing production has consistently declined since that initial season, which culminated with last year’s career-worst output (525). However, his overall yardage and touchdown totals remain favorable after four seasons.

Jordan Howard has the 3rd most rush yards (3,895) and the 7th most rush TD (30) since entering the NFL in 2016.

He is also 1 of 5 players to rush for at least 6 TDs in the last four seasons. Production!

Just a guess, Ryan Fitzpatrick won't lead Dolphins in rushing in 2020.

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) March 17, 2020

He is now primed to experience a statistical resurgence during his first year with Miami. Howard should be presented with the opportunity to secure early-down responsibilities while sharing touches with former 49er Matt Breida. Howard will also supply the Dolphins’ ground game with a steady resource while raising the effectiveness of an anemic rushing attack that ranked 32^nd in yardage (72.3 per game), and tied for 31st in yards per attempt (3.3) during 2019.

While Howard is projected to operate in a timeshare with Breida, Bell is the theoretical lead back in New York. But what should be a cavernous path toward an extensive workload could suddenly shift to production-inhibiting restraints at any point during the season. The former Steeler is vulnerable toward having his value negatively impacted due to questionable usage by Adam Gase. During his three healthy seasons from 2014-2017, Bell finished among the top three in PPR scoring, while assembling 3,920 yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground. He also collected 243 receptions and 2,125 yards as a receiving weapon. But those exceptional seasons should be extracted from your current draft planning due to the enormous disparity between his previous situation with Pittsburgh, and his precarious tenure under the direction of an increasingly maligned Gase.

Bell was entrusted with a sizable workload during 2019, as his 245 attempts placed him 11^th overall. But he was relegated to just 24^th in rushing yardage (789), as a byproduct of his concerning average of 3.2 yards per attempt. Bell was functioning behind an offensive line that ranked 31st in Football Outsiders’ run blocking ratings, which also contributed to the Jets’ ranking of 31st in both rushing offense (78.6 yards per game) and rushing touchdowns (6). The highly deficient unit was bolstered by offseason addition of Mekhi Becton, Greg Van Roten, George Fant, and Connor McGovern onto the roster.

However, New York also added Gore and drafted former Florida Gator Lamical Perine. The revamped depth chart will reunite Gore with Gase while increasing the likelihood that Gase will subject his most talented back to ill-conceived restrictions with his workload. This would keep him from procuring the mammoth touch total that some are anticipating.  It would also result in Howard receiving a workload that matches Bell's. You can avoid potential disappointment by eschewing Bell at his current ADP, and targeting Howard in Round 9.

Wide Receivers

Mecole Hardman (WR42/ADP123) or Courtland Sutton (WR18/ADP51)

41 receivers are being selected before Hardman. This presents owners with a tantalizing option in Round 11, as he delivers the potential for a statistical explosion during any matchup. That should also ignite interest in the advantages of including him on Best-Best rosters, where Hardman’s inconsistent production will be less impactful. His big-play capabilities were unfurled slowly during his rookie season (41 targets/26 receptions/538 yards), as Hardman’s operated within a talent-rich Kansas City offense.

Mecole Hardman averaged 47.8 yards per catch on his 6 TDs as a rookie

Highest of all NFL players with 4+ TDspic.twitter.com/iZSt6zkhqw

— PFF (@PFF) May 14, 2020

He did generate six touchdowns and collected nine receptions of 20+ yards. But his blazing speed should be unleashed with greater propensity as his growth curve progresses. Hardman did lead all receivers in yards after catch per reception, while also pacing his position in both yards per target (13.1) and yards per reception (20.7) among receivers that accrued 40+ targets. Even though Clyde Edwards-Helaire has joined Kansas City’s potent assemblage of weapons, Hardman’s increased target share should be built at the expense of returning veterans Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson, while his home run ability will pay dividends during the season.

While Hardman supplies enticing value at his current ADP. Sutton is being selected 72 slots earlier. He was cemented as Denver’s primary receiving weapon last season, while his WR1 status propelled him to the NFL lead in percentage share of the team’s air yards (42.93).

Sutton’s usage and production also surged impressively during his second season, as he finished 15th in targets (125/7.8 per game), 19th in PPR scoring, 17th in yardage (1,112), seventh in red-zone targets, and 16th in air yards (1,436). Sutton was also 17^th overall in completed air yards (749), and 11th in yards per route (2.48).

These numbers were also attained while he operated with Joe Flacco, and Brandon Allen under center for 11 matchups. Sutton was 16^th in targets after 12 contests (85/7.7 per game), and was 13^th overall in yardage (832/75.6 per game) during that span.

Denver transitioned to Drew Lock in Week 13, and Sutton’s usage remained sizable (8 targets per game). But even though his level of opportunity remained favorable, his yards per game and yards per target averages declined noticeably during his five games with Lock.

Weeks 1-12 Without Lock

Weeks 13-17 With Lock

Denver only ranked 28th in passing during 2019 (194.7 yards per game), as DaeSean Hamilton finished second behind Sutton with substandard numbers (52 targets/28 receptions/297 yards). John Elway addressed this deficiency by securing Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler during the draft. But the newcomers will combine with Noah Fant to supply legitimate competition for Sutton.

This could ensure a reduction in targets and output for Sutton, who is also dependent on Lock to effectively spearhead the refurbished attack. The potential for this statistical dropoff is a factor to consider before you deploy an early fifth-fourth round selection on Sutton.

Christian Kirk (WR38/ADP112) or Keenan Allen (WR21/ADP58)

Kirk was included in my free agency losers at his position, following the unexpected arrival of Hopkins. However, that conclusion was focused on Kirk’s diminished prospects of functioning as Arizona’s WR1 due to the presence of the former Texan. Kirk is still positioned to accumulate favorable usage and production within the Cardinals’ reenergized attack.

Kirk was sidelined for three matchups last season (ankle), but still finishing second on the team in targets (108), receptions (68) and receiving yardage (709). His team-high 8.3 targets per game average included eight games in which he captured 8+, while his per-game averages in receptions (5.2) and yardage (54.5) would have expanded his season totals to 83 receptions and 872 yards over 16 games.

His path to a significant rise in output is encumbered by the addition of Hopkins. But he still presents greater potential as a frequent contributor to weekly scoring totals than an assortment of receivers that are being selected before him. While Kirk is functioning in an ascending attack that will capitalize on his capabilities, Allen will be performing within a transformed offense that will reduce his opportunity to replicate the numbers that he has delivered since 2017 (444 targets/303 receptions/ 3,788 yards).

Allen has been a highly productive roster component while finishing as a top-6 scorer in two of the last three seasons. But he now enters his first season without Philip Rivers, while transitioning to signal callers that will not distribute the ball with the same volume that that enabled Allen to flourish with his former quarterback.

The Chargers also appear primed to increase their reliance on the ground game, which creates another obstacle that should prohibit Allen from approaching the numbers that owners have been accustomed to. LA ranked sixth in pass play percentage during 2019 (63%), and the Chargers finished among the top 14 in that category in five of the past six seasons.

However, Shane Steichen orchestrated the offense for eight games after Ken Whisenhunt was jettisoned as coordinator in late October. The Chargers had averaged 20 attempts per game with Whisenhunt directing the offense. But that average rose to 26 per game after Steichen ascended into playcalling responsibilities. He now becomes the architect for LA's attack and should diminish the team's dependence on passing, while placing restraints on Allen's opportunities.

Allen's acumen as a route runner will not be impacted by the impending changes with LA’s personnel and the team's strategic approach. But his numbers definitely will. The alterations in Allen’s environment have supplied the incentive to bypass him at his current ADP. But Kirk should contribute to his owners’ scoring totals with enough frequency to supply an appealing Best-Ball target in Round 10.

Tight Ends

We are steadily emerging from what had been the annual nightmare of contending with the tight end position. Owners are still presented with several elite options (Travis Kelce/George Kittle), while Mark Andrews has ascended beyond Zach Ertz as the next logical candidate that should be targeted. But the decision-making process beyond those early-round options has become less problematic due to an influx of possibilities in Rounds 7-12 that can become productive resources on your rosters.

This collection of choices includes Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, Austin Hooper, Jared Cook, and Hayden Hurst. But this breakdown will focus on a high profile veteran who has resurfaced in a new environment.

In the PFF era (2006-Present), among qualified QB to pass-catcher combinations (min. 300 targets/regular season), no QB has seen a higher passer rating that Tom Brady targeting Rob Gronkowski. pic.twitter.com/AeS9NKoRW8

— PFF (@PFF) March 24, 2019

The 31-year old Gronkowski returns after a one-year hiatus and should extend his legacy by accruing a respectable level of fantasy scoring with the Buccaneers. His prolific career is already brimming with historic accomplishments that were achieved during his nine seasons with Tom Brady.

Even though he was absent from football in 2019, the 5-time Pro Bowler will reconvene with his former quarterback within a Bruce Arians offense. This will enable Gronkowski to operate as a TE1 for owners while expanding his career total of 79 touchdowns. There is every reason to invest in his remaining talent and his track record with Brady - particularly at his Round 7 ADP (82). Exercising this degree of patience when selecting your tight end provides the opportunity to address other positions. But it will also involve sidestepping the options that will be available during the earlier rounds.

Since only four tight ends are being selected prior to Round 5, we will examine the advantage of bypassing the 30-year old Ertz. As with several players that were mentioned previously, this is not an indictment on Ertz’ existing talent or his prospects of performing as a consistent point producer. Ertz has averaged 124 targets, 86 receptions, and 914 yards since 2015 while finishing among the top four in PPR scoring during each of the last three seasons. He has also eclipsed 9 targets per game in each of his last two seasons, averaged at least 7.5 per game since 2015, and produced 22 touchdowns since 2017.

While he could finish among the top four in scoring during 2020, the steady ascension of Goedert during 2019 (87 targets/58 receptions/607 yards/5 touchdowns) looms as a conceivable threat to reduce Ertz’ opportunities. The addition of dynamic rookie Jalen Reagor can also impact his usage, as can the prospective return of 33-year DeSean Jackson. This provides your motivation to target Gronkowski, whose track record of high-quality production vaults him atop the burgeoning list of options that will be attainable after Round 7. It should be mentioned that he remains available until Round 9 in NFBC drafts (ADP104).

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