Chris Buescher Taken Out of Win, but Increased Aggression Working for Him

Chris Buescher delivered an electrifying performance for the second straight week at Darlington before a cut tire dropped him to 30th. Although his owner-teammate and eventual winner, Brad Keselowski, outran him, Buescher short-pitted to join the leaders' battle. While Keselowski and Tyler Reddick ran side-by-side for several laps, Buescher caught them sleeping and made a […]

Despite Crash, Ryan Blaney Had One of His Best Darlington Runs

Ryan Blaney is not particularly known as a great Darlington driver, as he's never finished better than eighth and has only led laps in two races. However, this past weekend in the Goodyear 400, he was on pace for one of his best-ever runs there before being eliminated in a lap 129 crash. Blaney started […]

Michael McDowell Poised For Downturn After Leaving Front Row Motorsports

After announcing his departure from Front Row Motorsports to join Spire Motorsports in 2025 last week, Michael McDowell is now a lame-duck driver for both FRM and Ford. Since he is moving to a Chevrolet team and lame-duck drivers rarely receive as much in the way of factory support or setup notes (particularly if they […]

Carson Hocevar A Reliable Darlington Finisher In All Series

This year's rookie wunderkind Carson Hocevar has clearly overtaken Corey LaJoie to become the Spire Motorsports team leader, and he is coming to a track where he already has much experience and a consistent finishing record. Hocevar got his first finish in the NASCAR Cup Series there last year when he finished 17th for Legacy […]

Justin Haley Likely Needs Attrition To Contend At Darlington

Justin Haley qualified 28th for this weekend's race at Darlington, giving him his best starting position on an unrestricted superspeedway since he moved to Rick Ware Racing. Haley is a plodding, methodical driver who predictably finishes better than he starts almost every week, and Darlington will likely prove no exception. He has a better average […]

Chase Elliott Consistent At Darlington, But Has Never Led With Next Gen Chassis

Although Chase Elliott has never won at Darlington, he certainly had the speed to do so in both 2020 races when he led 142 laps despite crashing in both. However, those races both came with the Generation 6 chassis, and Elliott generally ran better with that chassis than the Next Gen chassis. Since the Next […]

Lack Of Speed Should Override Austin Dillon's Historical Consistency At Darlington

Although he's never led a lap at Darlington, it is one of Austin Dillon's most consistent tracks, as he has an average finish of 14.3 there, better than any other track the NASCAR Cup Series visits twice. His second-place finish in the 2020 Southern 500 was one of his best-ever drives. However, Dillon has struggled […]

Kyle Busch A Likely Top-10 Finisher, But Probably Won't Contend For The Win

Kyle Busch has had a wildly inconsistent 2024 season, as his runs on superspeedways and road courses have been consistently strong but he has been lackluster on tracks of one mile or less, much like his Richard Childress Racing predecessor Tyler Reddick. Busch only won at Darlington once in 2008 but he has consistently run […]

Harrison Burton Won't Add To Wood Brothers' Legacy On Throwback Weekend

Although the Wood Brothers have won eight times at Darlington (more than any other track except for Daytona and Michigan), Harrison Burton looks quite unlikely to add to that record this weekend, as he qualified 35th for the Goodyear 400 and was the slowest qualifier in the first qualifying group. He did get one of […]

Tyler Reddick Unexpectedly Lackluster at Kansas

After winning the previous race at Kansas Speedway (historically 23XI Racing's best track), Tyler Reddick had the most disappointing run relative to expectations in this past weekend's AdventHealth 400. While the 23XI Toyotas seemed just as fast as the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas in the earlier Next Gen races at Kansas, Reddick and his teammate, […]

Ty Gibbs Had Speed But Was Foiled by Pit Strategy at Kansas

Ty Gibbs had a strong run for most of yesterday's AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway, as he ran inside the top 10 for the entirety of Stages 1 and 2 except for pit sequences and he finished sixth in both stages. However, Gibbs was one of the race's biggest victims when the rash of cautions […]

William Byron Unable to Fully Recover From Qualifying Crash at Kansas

William Byron had an unusually mediocre run at Kansas Speedway this past weekend despite his teammate, Kyle Larson, winning the race. Byron started in the back after a qualifying crash but struggled to move up through the pack even though passing was not very difficult, especially on restarts. He managed to break into the top […]

Kyle Busch Showing Consistent Speed Again After Mediocre Short Track Stretch

After a string of mediocre runs (particularly on short tracks), Kyle Busch has returned to form in the past two weeks. In last evening's AdventHealth 400 at Kansas, Busch passed eventual winner Kyle Larson for the lead and led 14 laps before Larson retook the lead immediately before the caution for Joey Logano's spin. Busch […]

Zane Smith Fast At Kansas But Unproven In Cup Series

As Zane Smith adjusts to the Next Gen car, which seems to take longer for most rookies to adapt to than previous chassis, he is currently the slowest full-time driver in the NASCAR Cup Series with a speed percentile of 21.54. However, his qualifying speed at Kansas this weekend was competitive with his Spire Motorsports […]

John Hunter Nemechek Outqualified By Teammates For Second Straight Week

John Hunter Nemechek has been one of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series's biggest lowkey disappointments. After triggering the pileup that injured his teammate Erik Jones at Talladega, Nemechek has now been out-qualified by both Jones's substitute, Corey Heim, and his part-time car owner, Jimmie Johnson, back-to-back weeks at Dover and Kansas despite having more experience […]

Justin Haley Unlikely To Contend At Kansas

Justin Haley has certainly improved Rick Ware Racing's competitiveness and reputation to a significant extent this season, as his speed percentile this year of 27.10 is considerably higher than the drivers in the other RWR car, but the team continues to lack the speed necessary to significantly contend, particularly on a track where horsepower is […]

Austin Cindric Qualifies Seventh At Kansas

Austin Cindric continued his string of consistent qualifying runs with a seventh-place start for this weekend's race at Kansas, but despite outqualifying all his Penske teammates as well as the Front Row Motorsports and Wood Brothers satellite cars, he has seldom been able to convert his strong qualifying runs into solid race finishes. He has […]

Non-Drafting Intermediates Are Harrison Burton's Weakness

Harrison Burton qualified 31st at Kansas this weekend and there's little to suggest he might contend on Sunday. Not only has he never led a lap or finished better than 21st in a race at Kansas, he has never even scored a top-10 finish on a non-drafting intermediate to date. Even in the Xfinity Series, […]

Chase Briscoe Slow On Intermediate Tracks

Chase Briscoe qualified 10th for this weekend's race at Kansas, but forecasting his performance is particularly difficult. The Stewart-Haas cars have been notoriously slow on intermediate tracks for the most part with the Next Gen chassis, and Briscoe himself has neither scored a top-10 finish nor led a lap at Kansas. Furthermore, Briscoe's performance on […]

Christopher Bell Wins Third Kansas Pole

Christopher Bell won his first pole of the season for this weekend's AdventHealth 400 at Kansas. This continues his recent trend where he has been the best qualifier in the NASCAR Cup Series, as he won the most poles in both 2022 and 2023 and had the best average starting position last year. However, despite […]

Botched Pit Stop and Crash Eliminate William Byron From Contention at Dover

William Byron has been one of the luckiest drivers since the start of the 2022 NASCAR Cup season, but yesterday's race at Dover proved to be an exception. Byron took the lead from Ryan Blaney in the middle of Stage 1 before Martin Truex, Jr. overtook him with six laps left in the stage. Byron […]

Martin Truex, Jr. Faded to Third at Dover, but Remains Fastest Driver of 2024

Martin Truex, Jr. was considered one of the pre-race favorites for the race at Dover this past weekend, but he came up short and ultimately finished third in the event. Truex did win Stage 1 after hunting down William Byron on an extended green-flag run at the end of that stage, but he lost the […]

Kyle Larson's Late-Race Charge at Dover Comes up Short

Kyle Larson finished a close second to Denny Hamlin in this past weekend's Dover race. He led 39 laps after first beating Martin Truex, Jr. on a green flag pit cycle to win Stage 2 and again took the lead on a caution-flag exchange of pit stops on lap 325. In both cases, Larson eventually […]

Denny Hamlin Takes Checkered Flag at Dover for Third Win of Season

Denny Hamlin scored his third win of the season at the Würth 400 at Dover this past weekend, a win that was forecasted by many models, including our own Jordan McAbee's algorithm-predicted finishing order two days ago. Hamlin's win shouldn't have come as a surprise because many observers expected that the tire wear at Dover […]

Zane Smith Unlikely to Contend After Practice Crash

Zane Smith did not have a good start to his weekend after crashing in the second practice session, which prevented him from registering a time in qualifying. Smith has mightily struggled in his rookie NASCAR Cup Series campaign as he has been both slow and crash-prone. After Daniel Hemric posted the fastest average speed at […]

Dover Not One of Brad Keselowski's Best Tracks

Brad Keselowski still awaits his first win since becoming an owner-driver for his RFK Racing team despite a near-miss last week when Tyler Reddick edged him out coming to the finish at Talladega, but it probably won't come this weekend at Dover. Keselowski did win at "The Monster Mile" once in 2012 via fuel mileage, […]

Ty Gibbs Likely to Contend if Joe Gibbs Racing as Fast as Expected

Ty Gibbs qualified 19th at Dover this weekend, but expect him to carve his way through the field at least to a certain extent. In last year's race, Gibbs started 24th and finished 13th in a race his teammate, Martin Truex, Jr., won. Additionally all of Gibbs' teammates finished inside the top six, indicating that […]

Austin Cindric Continues to Qualify Well, but Lacks Race Speed

Austin Cindric qualified 11th for this weekend's race at Dover, but it isn't one of his best tracks, as he failed to finish his first NASCAR Cup Series race there in 2022 and finished four laps down in 26th last year. Cindric did win his Xfinity Series start there in 2021, where he was generally […]

Harrison Burton Unlikely to Duplicate Talladega Top Ten

Harrison Burton scored his first top ten of the season last week at Talladega, but it is extremely unlikely to foresee him repeating that feat in this weekend's race at Dover. Although he did gain eleven positions from his starting position in both of his NASCAR Cup Series starts at Dover, he finished two laps […]

A.J. Allmendinger Decent at Dover but Not in Recent Years

A.J. Allmendinger qualified 10th for this weekend's Würth 400 at Dover, giving Kaulig Racing its best starting position in the NASCAR Cup Series this year. Although Allmendinger has never led a lap there in the Xfinity Series, he has finished in the top six in his last three Xfinity starts there, including finishing sixth in […]