RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 16, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series, as we dive into Week 16 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. This week we've got a pair of pitchers that contrast nicely. First, we've got a hard-throwing rookie right-hander in the NL East with Spencer Schwellenbach. Then, we'll break down a soft-tossing veteran lefty in the AL West in Tyler Anderson.
For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of July 8.
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Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves – 15% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 31.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 16.7% K-BB%
7/6 vs. PHI: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Schwellenbach was excellent Saturday, holding the mighty Phillies to just one run over six innings while striking out six. It was a nice bounce back for Schwellenbach, who allowed four earned runs in each of his last two outings coming into Saturday. Schwellenbach now has a 5.02 ERA and a 2-4 record on the season, but with injuries to several competitors such as AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, Schwellenbach has a relatively secure rotation spot for a winning ballclub. Can he be a fantasy asset, or is Schwellenbach a Schwellen-drop?
Originally a second-round pick by Atlanta back in 2021, Schwellenbach doesn’t have a lot of professional experience. He threw just 65 innings in his professional debut in 2023 and made just two starts in Double-A prior to his promotion. Schwellenbach was a highly regarded prospect in Atlanta’s system, ranking as the second-best Braves prospect per Fangraphs in 2024. Schwellenbach works with a six-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, splitter, and sinker. Not only is it a deep arsenal for Schwellenbach, but the young righty also utilizes each pitch with some regularity. He throws all but his sinker at least 12% of the time, although his most used pitch has been the four-seam fastball, and that was the case in this start.
A 95.7 mph offering, Schwellenbach threw his fastball 21% of the time in this start. His fastball usage is up from his previous start against Pittsburgh which was just 14.1%, but slightly below his season average of 23.5%. In addition to plus velocity, Schwellenbach’s fastball also has plus vertical and horizontal movement, along with average spin. Opposing batters have feasted on Schwellenbach’s fastball this season, posting a .375 AVG, .594 SLG, and .438 wOBA off Schwellenbach’s four-seamer.
The expected stats are a little better at .303 xBA, .461 xSLG, and .359 xwOBA, but those numbers are not encouraging. Schwellenbach has been a little unlucky with his fastball given his .458 BABIP against, but digging deeper into the numbers it’s no mystery why the BABIP is so high. Schwellenbach has allowed a 91.6 mph average exit velocity, a 10-degree average launch angle, and a 29.2% line drive rate with his fastball thus far. It’s only been seven starts for Schwellenbach, but his fastball batted ball data is trending in the wrong direction. The fastball was supposed to be one of Schwellenbach’s best pitches, but the results thus far are less than impressive.
Schwellenbach mixed in several secondary pitches in this start, throwing his splitter, slider, curveball, and sinker all at least 16% of the time. The pitch that stood out the most has to be the splitter, which Schwellenbach threw 20% of the time and earned five of his 12 whiffs with the pitch. Schwellenbach throws the pitch exclusively to lefties, and even without Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper the Phillies were able to load up five lefties against Schwellenbach in this start.
Lefties have had a slight platoon advantage against Schwellenbach thus far, but he’s able to neutralize them with the splitter. On the year, batters are hitting just .154 off the pitch along with a .346 SLG and .228 wOBA. He also has a monster 29.2% swinging strike rate with the pitch. An 84.4 mph offering, Schwellenbach’s splitter is best classified as a split-change. He has an exceptionally low spin rate with the pitch at just 1,367 RPM and plus vertical movement. The splitter looks like a bona fide out pitch against lefties, and Schwellenbach should be able to utilize it for outs and whiffs going forward.
The splitter helps take care of lefties, but what about right-handers? Schwellenbach mixes in a little of everything (sans splitter) against righties, but his primary breaking balls have been the slider and the curveball. The slider has technically performed better with a .242 AVG against, but Schwellenbach has an underwhelming 12.3% swinging strike rate with the pitch. He earned just two whiffs with it in this start as well.
The best thing his slider has going for it is groundballs. Schwellenbach has a -6-degree average launch angle against his slider this season and a 61.9% groundball rate. That paired with an 85.8 mph average exit velocity gives Schwellenbach an excellent pitch for inducing weak contact and groundballs. Again, it’s only been seven starts, but this is exactly what we’d want to see from Schwellenbach, even if the strikeout rate could be higher.
Batters have fared slightly better against Schwellenbach’s curveball with a .263 AVG against, but he has a .194 xBA, .245 xSLG, and .217 xwOBA with the pitch. A low spin, 80 mph offering, Schwellenbach’s curveball has plus drop and average break. Unlike his slider, Schwellenbach has gotten results by keeping the ball in the air for low-probability hits. He has a 19-degree average launch angle against, an 85.7 mph average exit velocity, and a 42.9% infield flyball rate. This looks like another weapon at his disposal.
Verdict:
There’s a lot to like about what Schwellenbach has done thus far. His 5.02 ERA is a little misleading because he has a 3.57 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, and 3.62 SIERA through seven starts. His .327 BABIP should come down once the .458 BABIP on his four-seamer normalizes. The four-seamer hasn’t been good, but it hasn’t been .458 BABIP bad either. Schwellenbach does a good job of limiting walks and has moderate strikeout upside thanks to his nasty splitter and a deep arsenal of secondary pitches. He’s still a little unpolished, but Schwellenbach looks like he could be a useful piece for the second half. The fact that he pitches for a good team with a relatively stable job is a bonus. He’s worth an add in 12-team leagues or deeper.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels – 55% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 104 IP, 3.02 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 4.6% K-BB%
7/6 @ CHC: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
It doesn’t get much better than what Anderson did on Saturday, going eight shutout innings and striking out 10 with zero walks. It’s also not often that we feature current All-Star pitchers with sub-3.00 ERAs in this column, but with a relatively low roster rate and questionable peripherals, Anderson is a good candidate for a deep dive. Anderson has shown us flashes of brilliance in the past, including a 2.57 ERA in 2022 for the Dodgers. Are we getting that version of Tyler Anderson, or will he regress to the 4.19 career ERA pitcher that he’s been for eight seasons?
A longtime Colorado Rockie, Anderson flourished in 2022, posting a 2.57 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and a 14.7% K-BB% in 178.2 innings. His first season with the Halos was a disaster however, as Anderson put up a 5.43 ERA in 141 innings amid control and home run issues. Anderson works with a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, cutter, and sinker. It’s primarily been about the four-seamer, changeup, and cutter for Anderson, as he throws those pitches a combined 95.7% of the time. Anyone familiar with Anderson knows it's been about one pitch for him, and that’s the changeup.
Anderson has lived and died by the changeup throughout his career, and the pitch was on full display in this one. He threw it 31% of the time and earned 11 of his 22 (22!) whiffs with the pitch. A low spin, 78.6 mph offering, Anderson’s changeup is characterized by exceptional vertical movement. Here’s a particularly nasty example from this start.
Tyler Anderson, Nasty 78mph Changeup. 👌
7th K pic.twitter.com/S5Y4MxTK7N
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 6, 2024
Not like Dansby Swanson can hit much anyway, but boy that was a filthy pitch. Batters have really struggled against Anderson’s changeup this season. Opponents have a .186 AVG, .230 SLG, and .241 wOBA against the pitch thus far. It’s been a dominant strikeout pitch for Anderson, who has an 18.5% swinging strike rate and a 36.8% chase rate with the pitch thus far. Anderson also has an impressive 82.6 mph average exit velocity against with the pitch. All in all, this is an excellent pitch when it’s on and Anderson may be able to improve upon his 16.8% strikeout rate with it going forward.
Sure, the changeup is great, but it’s just one pitch and he only throws it to righties. Anderson’s next most used pitch has been his fastball, and the numbers aren’t nearly as pretty. Sure, he has a .235 AVG against the pitch, but batters also have a .458 SLG, .337 wOBA, .538 xSLG, and .378 xwOBA off his four-seamer this season. The fastball has never been Anderson’s strong suit, and he’s slowly been losing velocity on the pitch. He peaked at 92 mph in 2017, but now he throws it at just 89.2 mph at age 34 in 2024. Anderson’s fastball looks like a liability for him, which gives him high levels of volatility on a start-by-start basis. He’s been very fortunate with his fastball thus far, posting a .236 BABIP against compared to a .299 career BABIP against his fastball. Once that normalizes Anderson will experience ERA and WHIP regression.
The cutter has fared much better for Anderson thus far, as opponents are hitting just .203 off the pitch with a .378 SLG and .278 wOBA. An 83.7 mph offering, Anderson’s cutter acts as a primary breaking ball against lefties and serves as more of a show-me pitch against righties. Anderson has a solid 12% swinging strike rate with the pitch, so again it’s very possible for him to raise that 16.8% strikeout rate going forward.
Verdict:
Anderson has been around a long time, but he’s really only been on fantasy radars the last couple of years due to spending the beginning of his career with Colorado. He will live and die by his changeup, and he carved up the Cubs with the pitch in this start. This is most likely his best start all season, but he’s still a decent streamer going forward. He’s the type of pitcher I don’t mind rostering due to the volatility. He may struggle at times, but he can throw up a big start like this every so often. His 2.81 ERA is definitely an overperformance, so expect ratio regression for Anderson going forward. He’s a decent add in 10 or 12-team leagues if available.
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