RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 19, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 19 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. There were a lot of interesting starts over the weekend, and this week we're going to break down two young NL righties. First, we'll deep dive into River Ryan's debut week with the Dodgers. Then, we'll look at Tyler Phillips' complete game shutout against Cleveland.
For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of July 29.
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River Ryan, Los Angeles Dodgers – 20% Rostered
2024 Stats (AAA): 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 19.7% K-BB%
7/22 vs. SF: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R (0 ER), 3 BB, 2 K
7/28 @ HOU: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K
Ryan followed up his one-run debut against the Giants on Monday with an eight-strikeout performance against Houston on Sunday. It was quite a week for the young right-hander, and with a plethora of injuries to the Dodgers’ rotation Ryan may secure a permanent rotation spot if he continues to pitch well. Is it worth blowing a wad of FAAB for Ryan, or should we pass?
Originally drafted as a two-way player out of UNC Pembroke in the 11th round by San Diego, Ryan was traded to the Dodgers in 2022 in exchange for Matt Beaty. That looks like a big win for the Dodgers following Ryan’s first two starts, especially since Ryan became something of a prospect after coming to Los Angeles and focusing solely on pitching. He was the Dodgers’ fourth-ranked prospect coming into 2024 as a 25-year-old, with scouts praising his stuff and athleticism. Ryan works with a deep six-pitch arsenal, consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, sinker, and cutter. He may throw a lot of different pitches, but he’s relied heavily on two pitches through his first two starts, and that would be his fastball and slider.
A sharp 96.1 mph offering, Ryan has thrown his fastball 43.3% of the time through two starts. Ryan’s fastball can touch 99 mph and boasts above-average spin at 2,435 RPM, along with plus vertical movement. Batters have struggled to make quality contact against the pitch thus far, with opponents posting a .203 xBA and 89.6 mph average exit velocity off Ryan’s fastball thus far. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.
Ryan has been attacking hitters heavily with this pitch, going at them in the zone and above the zone. Here’s a heatmap breakdown of his fastball usage thus far.
He hasn’t been afraid to go in the zone at hitters and has a 50.7% zone rate with his fastball. Oftentimes, this type of zone rate for a rookie pitcher would be worrisome, but Ryan’s fastball has a little juice and is good enough to live in the zone. Overall, his fastball looks like a plus offering.
Now, onto his slider, which Ryan has thrown 23.8% of the time thus far. It’s a hard breaking ball at 89.9 mph and boasts plus horizontal movement and spin at 2,496 RPM. Here’s a particularly nasty example from this start.
92 mph! Batters have really struggled against this pitch, hitting a mere .077 with a .154 SLG and .097 wOBA through two starts. The expected stats suggest that Ryan has been a little lucky, but he still has an impressive .197 xBA, .405 xSLG, and .253 xwOBA against his slider. It’s been too small of a sample to draw major conclusions from, but things are trending in the right direction for Ryan with his slider.
He also earned plenty of strikeouts with the pitch and his curveball against Houston. He earned five of his 14 whiffs with the pitch in that start, though he failed to earn a single whiff with it against San Francisco. It still has all the makings of a solid breaking ball and I think Ryan could be an above-average strikeout pitcher thanks in part to this offering.
The slider isn’t the only strikeout weapon at Ryan’s disposal either, as he wields a strong curveball that carved up Houston’s lineup. He only threw it 13% of the time but it had an incredible 58% CSW (Called Strike+Whiff rate). Batters are hitting just .200 against the curveball with a .200 SLG and .204 wOBA. Opponents also have a comically low 80.9 mph average exit velocity and a comically high 39-degree average launch angle against this pitch. Again, we’re dealing with a really small sample size, but these are encouraging numbers for Ryan.
The curveball has average spin at 2,584 RPM and acts as more of a slider-curve hybrid (slurve) than a traditional curveball. Here’s an example from this start.
The pitch has exceptional horizontal movement, allowing Ryan to paint the corner with a filthy backdoor curveball. Ryan had strong strikeout numbers in the minors, and between the fastball, slider, and curveball, he should be able to replicate that in the majors.
There’s a lot to be excited about with Ryan, but there are some flaws in his game that could hold him back. He has had trouble throwing strikes in the past and has issued three walks in each of his first two starts, giving him a bloated 14% BB%. Second, Ryan doesn’t have a lot of professional experience and the Dodgers may keep him on a short leash. In 2023 he threw 104.1 innings, but the Dodgers never let him go beyond five innings or 76 pitches last season. He threw 91 pitches against Houston so perhaps they’ll let him go deeper as the season progresses. However, with his control issues, Ryan may struggle to pitch deep into games, affecting his ability to get wins and quality starts.
Verdict:
River Ryan has a deep six-pitch arsenal, anchored by a plus fastball and two strong breaking balls. He also (barring any trades that happen after this is published) has a rather secure role in Los Angeles. The pitching injuries have been piling up for the Dodgers, so as long as Ryan is effective I think he’ll have a job. Ryan is definitely worth the add, and he’s worth a good portion of one's remaining FAAB as well. With just two months left in the season, time is running out for breakout pitchers to emerge, and Ryan could be a breakout arm down the stretch.
Tyler Phillips, Philadelphia Phillies – 30% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 16 IP, 2.81 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 23.3% K-BB%
7/27 vs. CLE: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Phillips accomplished a rare feat in today’s MLB, going the distance for a complete game shutout against one of baseball's strongest teams in the Cleveland Guardians. It was the second straight start where Phillips didn’t allow a run, having also gone six shutout innings against Pittsburgh in his previous start. Phillips was promoted due to injuries in the Phillies rotation, but the young right-hander has pitched so well that he might’ve earned himself a bigger role on the team. It’s not like Taijuan Walker was setting the world on fire before hitting the injured list. Is Phillips worth the add, or will he be an afterthought?
Originally a 16th-round draft pick by the Rangers back in 2015, Phillips has had a long journey to the big leagues. He’s pitched professionally since the 2015 season when he was just 17 years old and finally reached the majors for the first time at age 26. He was designated for assignment by the Rangers in 2021 and claimed by the Phillies a week later. He works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a slider, sinker, four-seam fastball, curveball, and changeup. Phillips uses all of these pitches at least five percent of the time, but he relied heavily on his sinker and slider in this start.
Phillips’ most used pitch in this start was his sinker, which he threw 33% of the time. A 93.2 mph offering, Phillips’ sinker has above-average horizontal and vertical movement, making it an effective groundball pitch. Batters are hitting just .261 against the pitch, although a .609 SLG and .391 wOBA against are a bit concerning. Phillips has allowed a lot of hard contact with the pitch, as batters have a blistering 93.7 mph average exit velocity against the pitch thus far.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the pitch is bad or ineffective, but it gives Phillips less room for error. He’s kept the damage in check thanks to a two-degree average launch angle and a 59.1% groundball rate against the sinker, both exceptional numbers. Plenty of pitchers such as Framber Valdez, Cristopher Sanchez, and Logan Webb give up hard contact with their sinkers but get by due to their groundball prowess. It is way too early to compare Phillips to any of those guys, but it’s worth noting because hard contact isn’t the end of the world for a groundball-heavy pitcher.
Groundballs seem to be Phillips’ specialty. He only has a 41.2% groundball rate thus far, but he has a 59.1% groundball rate with his sinker and a 55% groundball rate with his curveball. Phillips also had a 50.9% groundball rate at Triple-A prior to promotion, and a monster 58.3% groundball rate at Triple-A the year prior, albeit in just 40.1 innings. Phillips doesn’t have big strikeout stuff, so he’ll need these groundball outs to get by in the majors.
Phillips may not have big strikeout stuff, but he does have a solid slider that’s gotten plenty of whiffs thus far. Batters are hitting just .176 against the pitch along with a .324 SLG and .212 wOBA. Even better, Phillips has a 17.7% swinging strike rate and a 33.8% chase rate with his slider. An 82.2 mph offering, Phillips’ slider is characterized by strong vertical movement. Here’s an example from this start.
It's a far cry from River Ryan’s 92 mph bender we saw earlier, but a solid pitch nonetheless, probably his best offering. Even so, don’t expect too much more than the 21.3% strikeout rate he’s posted thus far. Phillips routinely had strikeout rates below 20% in the minors, and most projection models have him between 16% and 17%. I think Phillips can beat those projections, but don’t expect his strikeout rate to get much higher than 20%.
While Phillips has been excellent thus far, there are a few red flags in his profile that suggest he’s overperformed. The biggest two would be his .215 BABIP against and his 94.6% LOB rate. Both of those will regress towards league average, and Phillips’ sparkling 1.80 ERA will rise when regression comes. Some groundball pitchers can maintain a lower-than-average BABIP, but not as low as .215, and not with just a 41.2% groundball rate. Expect more hits to fall against Phillips, and when they do, expect more of those runners to come around and score.
Phillips also has an unusually low 2.2% BB% thus far. He had a 9.4% BB% at Triple-A prior to promotion and an 11.5% BB% at Triple-A in 2023, so there’s simply no way he maintains this over time. Maybe batters are going after everything because he’s a rookie, or maybe there isn’t enough of a major-league scouting report on him yet. Either way, we cannot trust this walk rate going forward. The walk rate, BABIP, and LOB rate are all way too good to be true, and due to the small sample size, even ERA estimators are a little too rosy on Phillips in my opinion. Expect an ERA closer to 4.00 if he stays in the rotation long enough.
Verdict:
Phillips has been incredible thus far, and while there are some positive traits in this profile, fantasy managers should be skeptical of Phillips’ long-term viability. The best two things he has going for him are his sinker and slider, but he isn’t producing enough groundballs or strikeouts to stand out as elite, or even above average. He’s gotten by thanks to a .215 BABIP and 94.6% LOB rate, but we all know those numbers can’t last. He’s not the worst option for streaming, especially against a weak lineup, but he’s not someone I’d trust every time or spend a good portion of FAAB to acquire. Pick up River Ryan instead.
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