X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Matt Waldron and Alek Manoah

Alek Manoah - Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 9, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

This time we've got two interesting righthanders to look at. First, we'll dive into knuckleballer Matt Waldron's 10-strikeout day against the Braves. Then, we'll deep dive into Alek Manoah's resurgence.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 20.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Matt Waldron, San Diego Padres – 2% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 39.1 IP, 5.49 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 11.4% K-BB%

05/17 @ ATL: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER 2 BB, 10 K

Waldron was electric Friday night, allowing just one run over 5.2 innings while fanning a career-high 10 Braves. It’s been a tough start to the year for Waldron, who lowered his ERA to 4.69 following this start. He has allowed just three earned runs combined over his last two outings. Is Waldron legit, or is there simply no way to spin him as a fantasy option?

Originally an 18th-round pick by Cleveland back in 2019, Waldron came over to the Padres in the blockbuster Mike Clevinger deal in 2020. Not having much to work with in terms of velocity, Waldron began throwing a knuckleball as a minor leaguer. Altogether, he works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a knuckleball, four-seam fastball, sweeper, sinker, and cutter.

Waldron may have a deep arsenal of pitches, but make no mistake, he lives and dies by the knuckleball. He used the pitch 44% of the time against Atlanta in this start, his highest knuckleball usage rate since the first game of the season. The Braves lineup struggled against the pitch, with Waldron notching six of his 13 whiffs with the knuckleball in this start.

A 76.7 mph offering, Waldron’s knuckleball is more of a power knuckleball; it doesn’t have some of the crazy arc, loops, or dance moves we’ve seen from knuckleballers past. Instead, it comes in rather straight albeit with extremely low spin. Here’s an example from this start.

Jarred Kelenic was totally fooled by that pitch, which had a spin rate of 236 rpm. Waldron’s knuckleball averages just 239 rpm, and he’s thrown pitches this season with less than 100 rpm. While it’s unique to see on his Baseball Savant page, does it translate into success?

Batters have really struggled against Waldron’s knuckleball this season, with opponents hitting just .224 with a .358 SLG and .278 wOBA. The key to Waldron’s knuckleball isn’t swing-and-miss, but weak contact. He had the strikeouts in this start, but with just an 11.1% swinging strike rate and a 22.3% chase rate with his knuckleball on the year, it’s safe to say this was an outlier. Batters have had a difficult time squaring up Waldron’s knuckleball, with just an 86.9 mph average exit velocity and a 31.3% infield flyball rate thus far. Waldron is able to consistently produce weak contact with the pitch, which should help him keep BABIP and batting average low against the pitch.

So, we know he’s able to keep hitters at bay with his knuckleball, but what about the rest of his arsenal? Unfortunately, there’s not much to like beyond the knuckleball for Waldron, which is probably a big reason why he became a knuckleballer in the first place. His four-seam fastball averages just 90.9 mph with below-average spin at 2,068 rpm. Opponents are hitting .262 against the pitch with a .476 SLG and .336 wOBA. Waldron does induce weak contact with his four-seamer. Opponents are averaging an 88.7 mph exit velocity and 20-degree average launch angle off the pitch this season, good for a .254 xBA and .319 xwOBA. Overall, Waldron’s fastball looks like a below-average offering that only serves to fool hitters by keeping them off balance, rather than blowing it past them directly.

What about the rest of his arsenal? Does Waldron supplement his knuckleball well? Not exactly. Waldron’s third most commonly used pitch is his sweeper, which he throws 18.2% of the time. Batters are hitting just .227 off the pitch, but they’re also slugging .500 with a .368 wOBA. The strikeout numbers on Waldron’s sweeper are pitiful, as Waldron has a 4.2% swinging strike rate and a 10.3% chase rate with the pitch. These are some of the worst swinging strike metrics I can recall seeing on a breaking ball, and we can’t count on this pitch for anything but opposing home runs. He has similarly underwhelming underlying metrics on his sinker and cutter. Outside of the knuckleball, Waldron throws a lot of junk.

This leads me to one of the core issues in rostering Waldron, which is the unpredictability of his game. Waldron will not consistently produce strikeouts with his arsenal, meaning he’s reliant on good outcomes for balls in play. Waldron has a .313 BABIP this season and has consistently had BABIPs above .320 in the minor leagues, so we can’t trust him to always have those good outcomes. So much is left up to chance with this approach, and a high-BABIP, pitch-to-contact, low-strikeout pitcher doesn’t sound all that appealing for fantasy purposes.

Verdict:

Knuckleballers are always a treat to watch, but they’re more akin to sideshow attractions than a bona fida fantasy asset. Waldron has produced good results on his knuckleball thanks to a penchant for inducing weak contact and infield flyballs, but outside of that, there’s not a whole lot to like. His fastball is below average in just about every sense of the term, and the rest of his arsenal is painfully mediocre. So much is left up to chance with a pitcher like Waldron, and unless you’re in a deep league, he’s not worth the headache. Keep him on waivers.

 

Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays – 36% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 11 IP, 4.91 ERA, 6.15 FIP, 14% K-BB%

05/19 vs. TB: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Manoah was dominant on Sunday, limiting the Rays to just one hit over seven innings en route to his first victory of the season. It’s been a winding road for Manoah, who has experienced high peaks and low valleys over the past three seasons. With an 82 GSv2, this was his best start by Game Score since October 2, 2021. Fantasy managers have a complicated relationship with Manoah at this point, but he’s shown us so much in the past that it’s hard not to be a little intrigued by his recent performance. Is Manoah back, or was this just another fleeting success?

Originally the 11th overall pick by Toronto back in 2019, Manoah was a big-time pitching prospect who was expected to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter at the major league level. Manoah looked to be surpassing expectations following his promotion. His peak came in 2022 when Manoah finished third in Cy Young voting after putting up a 2.24 ERA in 196.2 innings. He came crashing down the next year, with Manoah posting a hideous 5.87 ERA and 6.01 FIP in 87.1 innings in 2023, a season that saw him get demoted to the minors. Manoah works with a four-pitch mix, consisting of a sinker, slider, four-seam fastball, and changeup.

When Manoah is at his best it means his fastball and slider are working for him, and that was certainly the case in this start. Manoah’s most used pitch was his slider, which he threw 31% of the time. He also earned five of his 11 whiffs with his slider in this start. A slower 81.8 mph offering, Manoah’s slider is best characterized by its plus horizontal movement. Manoah’s slider has had a 67% greater break than average this season, which is a step up from last year when it was just 44% above average. It’s still not as good as his 2021 and 2022 seasons, but it’s a step in the right direction. The spin rate on his slider is also trending upwards; he averaged 2,238 RPM with his slider in his most recent start, which is close to his spin rate during his peak of 2021-22.

The pitch has been his best strikeout option too, with a 15% swinging strike rate and a 25% chase rate thus far. On the year batters are hitting .238 off Manoah’s slider, but have a .524 SLG and xSLG and a .362 xwOBA. It would be nice to see better expected stats on this pitch, but then again it’s only been three starts for Manoah so we’re working with a very small sample size. The improvements in movement and spin rate are a positive sign for Manoah, even if results have been mixed. The slider isn’t quite back to peak levels, but it’s a definite improvement over last year.

Manoah’s next most used pitch in this start was his sinker, which he’s throwing a career-high 29.3% of the time. The increased sinker usage has served him well thus far, as batters are hitting just .105 against the pitch with a .105 SLG and .200 wOBA. The expected stats suggest the outcomes were earned as Manoah has a .158 xBA, .199 xSLG, and .249 xwOBA with his sinker this season. What’s made it so good? Weak contact. Batters have a meager 85 mph average exit velocity against Manoah’s sinker this season, along with a 20-degree launch angle. Sinkers are usually thought of as groundball pitches, but not for Manoah, who had a 45.5% flyball rate and a 40% infield flyball rate with his sinker this season.

Flyballs are the least likely batted ball type to land for a hit, so this isn’t a bad approach, though he may run into trouble pitching in the AL East with these tendencies. Home runs were a major problem for Manoah last season, and he’s already surrendered three in his three starts, a concerning trend even if he didn’t allow a homer against Tampa Bay. Manoah is allowing a 40.4% flyball rate overall with just a 5.3% infield flyball rate, so home runs could continue to be an issue for him.

Something else that was a major problem for Manoah last season was walks, and Manoah has shown some improvement through three starts. He walked four in his first outing but has walked just two batters since and has increased his zone rate by 2.6% this season, going from 38.8% last year to 41.4% this year. The 41.4% is more in line with 2021-2022, so if Manoah can sustain this he may be able to keep his walk rate below 10%.

Verdict:

So, is Manoah back? It may be too early to say, but it’s also unlikely that he’ll ever replicate his 2021-2022 run. He relied on a .245 BABIP and 8.3% HR/FB ratio to put up a 2.60 ERA over that stretch. That doesn’t mean Manoah can’t be useful in fantasy, and he’s made enough small improvements to intrigue this writer, such as his increased zone rate and regained slider movement. Even though he has a 25.3% strikeout rate through his first three starts, he might not be a reliable source of strikeouts going forward. His slider is his only good strikeout pitch, and a 25% chase rate just isn’t that impressive. One positive aspect about Manoah is that Toronto has no qualms about working him deep into games, and the 6-foot-6, 285-pounder has proven to be a workhorse in the past. He might be a good source of quality starts and wins in addition to volume due to his propensity to work deep into games. He’s a fringe add in 12-team leagues, depending on team need.

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
NFL

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Toronto Raptors

Sandro Mamukelashvili Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Riley Greene

Homers Twice, Drives in Six on Wednesday
Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF